2 ms·

> I’m not calling a top to the market, or a crash

• mooreds 8y ago
  > In my estimation there is a 20–30% chance we could have “an event” in the near term (the next two years), and since there is never a bad time to make long-term plans you should read this email twice, and discuss it with your senior team.
  • hyperpape 8y ago
    That corresponds to a 50-65% chance of an event in 6-8 years. That's about the average length of the business cycle. I too am willing to bet that are better than even odds of an "event" in the next 6 years. I expect my prize will be in the mail.