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What's your rationale for this? Beyond interest rates, which are clearly the result of more aggressive, far larger-scale easing by central banks than we've ever
by shimon 8y ago
What's your rationale for this? Beyond interest rates, which are clearly the result of more aggressive, far larger-scale easing by central banks than we've ever seen before.
- csomar 8y agoP/E ratios in the USA are more favorable than many emerging countries. Given how expensive some of these countries got; and how shitty they are still are they'll need to correct. They still make very decent money even though they are well below the US or the western world on a per capita basis. The rich of these countries will need to flock somewhere. While you might think that the prices of the USA stock market is high, these guys will find the deal favorable to what they have in their own countries. It is not only Turkey that seeing the correction. Many countries in North Africa, South America, SEA, Russia, South Africa are getting squeezed. You'll be surprised at how much money is looking to leave these countries and settle shop somewhere safe. You just need a passport and a tourist visa to open a bank account in the US. Moving your business there is pretty straightforward if you have enough turnover and will to pay some taxes.
- shimon 8y agoI strongly agree that capital flight is a huge and under-recognized driver of high asset values in the US (particularly equities and real estate). But how do you even begin to estimate the rate of this effect, or how much further it might go, or what asset classes it might affect? For example: this was likely a major force in the surge in Bitcoin value almost a year ago, but that asset has since collapsed; will a similar effect take place in other assets?