The crux of their argument is based around a trend line of yields, and correlating the approach of yields to that trend line with actual human behaviors. I thi

The crux of their argument is based around a trend line of yields, and correlating the approach of yields to that trend line with actual human behaviors. I think this is flawed. The only reason the trendline is sustained at this point is because feds rate went all the way to ZERO for almost 8 years. I don't think we have enough information to predict what the tolerable funds rate and treasury yields are. Assuming the 3% line is really going to spell doom and gloom for the market is reasonable, but not reasonable enough to extrapolate anything from it. Yes, if we get enough recessio where lending dries up and stocks crash, people worldwide will still rush to put their money in US Treasuries, resulting in a bull market for US treasuries. The favorable aspects of treasuries - which are LIQUIDITY and geopolitical position - have not been eclipsed by any asset since the last time US treasuries had these advantages over any other asset class.