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> Most "techies going to work for google" or any other tech firm, are not going to get rich, in the Bill Gates or Larry Ellison sense. I can't speak for the OP

by mbesto 8y ago

> Most "techies going to work for google" or any other tech firm, are not going to get rich, in the Bill Gates or Larry Ellison sense. I can't speak for the OP, but there is absolutely a sense of getting rich working early at a tech company. The market for startup options is a direct indication of this. Google and Facebook both made, what..1000 millionaires each when they IPO'd? Point is, yes if you get in early to a world dominating technology company, you can absolutely become rich and be set for life. > Everything about how good techies have it could be negated during the next tech downturn. Disagree. Downturns force productivity and technology fuels productivity. If anything it's going to force more investment in technology to replace humans so businesses can maintain profitability. It's the sales & marketing folks that are usually in trouble, because many of these high growth companies will simply turn those functions off while we wait for the economy to swing back.

ryandrake 8y ago
The FB and Google scenarios were vanishing outliers. A whole lot of if statements had to evaluate to true to produce those outcomes, and at the end of the day, a FB IPO millionaire is pretty well off but his kids will still have to work for a living. The remaining 99% of early tech employees for other companies will end up with equity worth a house down payment if they are lucky, worth a few months of rent in the usual case, and often worth nothing. EDIT: As for the tech downturn, just wait and see. I assume you have not been through a significant tech bear market from your comment, but if you have, you should know better. Things dry up completely, for nearly everyone. If you miraculously keep your job, you are still not in any powerful bargaining position.
- gaius 8y ago
  a significant tech bear market from your comment, but if you have, you should know better. Things dry up completely, for nearly everyone Can confirm. 2001 was utter carnage. Developers hit a lot worse than ops but no one got out unscathed.
- mbesto 8y ago
  > The FB and Google scenarios were vanishing outliers. Not my point. > The remaining 99% of early tech employees for other companies will end up with equity worth a house down payment if they are lucky, worth a few months of rent in the usual case, and often worth nothing. Agreed. People are disillusioned to believe they'll become one of the "first 1000 have become millionaires". My point is that this a motivating factor, even if incorrectly assumed by most people. https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/ https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/ > I assume you have not been through a significant tech bear market from your comment To be clear - wasn't there only one tech bear market that is historically significant? (2001) If so, I would greatly challenge that we will hit another one similar to that anytime soon. Is there a frothy market right now? Yes. However most tech companies today have the discounted future economics to sustain themselves in an downturn. In 2001 that was not the case - you had companies IPO'n with 0 in revenue. A macro economic downturn is absolutely right around the corner, but a "fall out the bottom" bear tech market is very far from us.
C1sc0cat 8y ago
Even in smaller company's you can do that at one UK place I worked at one point everyone (approx. 50-55) was $millionare. That's 5% of your 1000 right there and I know peope who have made $200,000 effectively tax free on a single 5 year UK sharesave

by mbesto 8y ago

ryandrake 8y ago

The FB and Google scenarios were vanishing outliers. A whole lot of if statements had to evaluate to true to produce those outcomes, and at the end of the day, a FB IPO millionaire is pretty well off but his kids will still have to work for a living. The remaining 99% of early tech employees for other companies will end up with equity worth a house down payment if they are lucky, worth a few months of rent in the usual case, and often worth nothing. EDIT: As for the tech downturn, just wait and see. I assume you have not been through a significant tech bear market from your comment, but if you have, you should know better. Things dry up completely, for nearly everyone. If you miraculously keep your job, you are still not in any powerful bargaining position.

gaius 8y ago
a significant tech bear market from your comment, but if you have, you should know better. Things dry up completely, for nearly everyone Can confirm. 2001 was utter carnage. Developers hit a lot worse than ops but no one got out unscathed.
mbesto 8y ago
> The FB and Google scenarios were vanishing outliers. Not my point. > The remaining 99% of early tech employees for other companies will end up with equity worth a house down payment if they are lucky, worth a few months of rent in the usual case, and often worth nothing. Agreed. People are disillusioned to believe they'll become one of the "first 1000 have become millionaires". My point is that this a motivating factor, even if incorrectly assumed by most people. https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/ https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/ > I assume you have not been through a significant tech bear market from your comment To be clear - wasn't there only one tech bear market that is historically significant? (2001) If so, I would greatly challenge that we will hit another one similar to that anytime soon. Is there a frothy market right now? Yes. However most tech companies today have the discounted future economics to sustain themselves in an downturn. In 2001 that was not the case - you had companies IPO'n with 0 in revenue. A macro economic downturn is absolutely right around the corner, but a "fall out the bottom" bear tech market is very far from us.

C1sc0cat 8y ago

Even in smaller company's you can do that at one UK place I worked at one point everyone (approx. 50-55) was $millionare. That's 5% of your 1000 right there and I know peope who have made $200,000 effectively tax free on a single 5 year UK sharesave