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Why would you expect people to leave their country instead of simply moving inland and continuing, more or less as they already are? Climate change's primary d
by TangoTrotFox 8y ago
Why would you expect people to leave their country instead of simply moving inland and continuing, more or less as they already are?
Climate change's primary destructive effect will be to shift the coasts. There are good and bad things about this. To bad thing is quite self evident. We, and I mean as a species, tend to be extremely densely populated on coasts. This maximizes the numeric affect of increasing sea levels. But there are also some good things about this. The corollary of densely populated coastal regions is that there is an immense amount of sparsely populated inner land to migrate towards. It's not like the increasing seas will push people up against a wall. There is plenty of underutilized land to expand into, right behind us!
And another thing here is to keep in mind is what I already hit on above. Climate change is slow. Even the catastrophic near 0 probability ignore-everything climate change will happen very slowly and over many decades. This again has pros and cons. The obvious con is the parable of a frog boiling in water (which as an aside is not true...). People are less likely to act in any substantive way when the negative change is so gradual, which will increase the chances of us ending up in one of the worse scenarios. But there's also a very positive aspect. The change will not be catastrophic. The coast line won't suddenly be inundated with tens of feet of permanent water. Instead you're going to see the seas inch forward ever so slowly. This gives people time to adjust and migrate while minimizing chaos. So for instance take Miami, which is already suffering from increasing sea levels. You're not going to see property values go from sky high to $0. Instead they will slowly trend downwards and we'll likely see more inner land values slowly trend upwards. And they are also trying to combat the rising tides technologically, with some success. This same pattern will be expected in most places, so it helps preclude scenarios getting "very nasty, very quickly."
- regularfry 8y agoBecause I think you're wrong about where the primary effects will be. On edit, this isn't quite right: I think it's wrong to ignore either effect. People will be forced away from the coast because of rising sea levels and changes in weather patterns, and be forced further from the equator when climate shifts break existing local agriculture.
- TangoTrotFox 8y agoI completely agree with you that agriculture will be changed in some areas, but I'd like to know why you think it might become literally impossible in some areas. The big change will not be in the temperature, but in water supply. But irrigation is a quite well explored technology and how we can have thriving countries setup in the middle of literal deserts, though often in today's global world nations optimize for what's easiest and import as necessary instead of going through the effort to ensure self sufficiency.