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We need to put a solar shade at L1.[0] That will give us time to switch to a renewable electric economy, before hitting the catastrophic methane release from pe

We need to put a solar shade at L1.[0] That will give us time to switch to a renewable electric economy, before hitting the catastrophic methane release from permafrost thaw.[1] At 7C, mathematical modeling [2] shows that we may lose two thirds of our oxygen generation (plankton) which could lead to complete human extinction within ~3600 years.[3] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions [2] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11538-015-0126-0 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11538-015-0126-... [3] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12576-016-0501-0 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12576-016-0501-0

andygates 8y ago
But the sunshade is megascale engineering that you'd have to get everyone in on - and quickly, so that's a real project risk, even assuming it's worthwhile. And the clathrate gun was overhyped.
- consumer451 8y ago
  Out of all geoengineering solutions that I am aware of, the sunshade is the most likely to work, and with the least drawbacks as it is the only truly global solution. It is also pretty simple physics as compared to other solutions which involve complex system modeling and unknown side effects. All of the solutions require everyone on board, and quickly. The biggest issue is cost. At Falcon heavy prices, getting the requisite 20 million tons to L1 approaches 100 trillion dollars, according to my back of the napkin calculations. BFR may get that down an order of magnitude. The only way to pay for something like that is the really hard part, a global financial transaction tax, or some similar scheme. Could you point me to anything showing that the methane release threat is overblown? I would love that reassurance. But even the Trump administration acknowledges 4C by 2100, there is no reason to think that it would stop there.

andygates 8y ago

But the sunshade is megascale engineering that you'd have to get everyone in on - and quickly, so that's a real project risk, even assuming it's worthwhile. And the clathrate gun was overhyped.

consumer451 8y ago
Out of all geoengineering solutions that I am aware of, the sunshade is the most likely to work, and with the least drawbacks as it is the only truly global solution. It is also pretty simple physics as compared to other solutions which involve complex system modeling and unknown side effects. All of the solutions require everyone on board, and quickly. The biggest issue is cost. At Falcon heavy prices, getting the requisite 20 million tons to L1 approaches 100 trillion dollars, according to my back of the napkin calculations. BFR may get that down an order of magnitude. The only way to pay for something like that is the really hard part, a global financial transaction tax, or some similar scheme. Could you point me to anything showing that the methane release threat is overblown? I would love that reassurance. But even the Trump administration acknowledges 4C by 2100, there is no reason to think that it would stop there.