4 ms·

China and India have to be on board for reasonable progress to occur.

vkou 8y ago
What would progress look like, in this case? China and India catching up in emissions/capita to the developed world? Or are you expecting them to keep their emissions at a fraction of ours?
philliphaydon 8y ago
China is doing pretty well. Long way to go tho.
tzs 8y ago
As far as climate goes, what matters is the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not where they came from. Greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for varying amount of time, depending on the particular gas. Whatever we finally decide we need to hold warming too, there is some maximum level of greenhouse gases that we can allow without warming going above our limit. If we take that level, and figure out each country's fair share of that, what we'll find is that the West is responsible for way more of the greenhouse gases present than is their fair share (with the US the farthest over its share), and India is way under their fair share. It would not be unreasonable for India to feel that it is unfair that the West used cheap fossil fuels to boost itself to first world status and in the processes went way over their fair quota for greenhouse gases and now wants India to stay way below its fair quota and give up cheap development to balance that. To make it fair, the West would need to subsidize India so that it can afford to become a developed country without having to use the cheap fossil fuels. Another way to think of it would be the West paying India for having used up India's quota for allowed greenhouse gases--essentially a kind of retroactive cap and trade system.
jogjayr 8y ago
India and China both have leadership that acknowledge the existence of anthropogenic climate change and is taking active measures. That would seem like table stakes but unfortunately we live in a world where that's not a given. India produces 20% of electricity from renewable sources, not including large hydro[1]. Including large hydro, it's 29%. In comparison, the US produces only 15% from renewable sources including hydro[2] which, of course, has lots of environmental costs before any energy generation begins. This is admittedly a meaningless factoid but still kind of cool - India has 5 of the 10 largest solar power stations in the world, more than any other nation.[5] The Delhi city government has made it mandatory for government and public institutions to install rooftop solar[6]. This is on top of a government program that provides subsidized loans for rooftop solar on factories.[7] There's plenty of other renewable energy, rainwater harvesting, and recycling programs at various levels of the Indian government - federal, state, and city. I'm not saying all of them will work (it's the government, after all) but it's solid effort, and hard cash being put in. Gasoline costs USD 4.55/gal in Mumbai today[8] - compared to around USD 3.50 in California, which already has the highest gas prices in the continental US. Due to the lower average disposable income in India, this means motorists prioritize fuel economy over comfort, and even safety. India's annual population growth rate is 1.10% - a shade above the global average of 1.09%[3]. It's also been steadily dropping for decades and that trend is expected to continue.[4] China's population growth rate is 0.41% - lower even than the US.[3] The only way India and China can keep from increasing their emissions is by stopping their economic progress. This would effectively keep their respective populations poor, undernourished, and lacking modern amenities such as healthcare, transportation, or entertainment. So what do you mean by "on board" exactly? What other shining exemplars of environmental rectitude can one point at to persuade India and China? What other nations have made, or committed to make, similar lifestyle sacrifices? 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United... 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio... 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India#Fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India#Fertilit... 5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_sta... 6. https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/government-announces-policy-to-make-delhi-solar-city-1416232 https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/government-announces-policy-... 7. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/12/07/india-transforms-market-for-rooftop-solar https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/12/07/india-t... 8. https://www.mypetrolprice.com/3/Petrol-price-in-Mumbai https://www.mypetrolprice.com/3/Petrol-price-in-Mumbai
flukus 8y ago
How low have we sunk that we expect developing nations to act concurrently with supposed world "leaders"? We should expect their emissions to increase and we'll meet them in CO2e per capita or the way down.
frankzinger 8y ago
I'm much more worried about the US right now.

vkou 8y ago

What would progress look like, in this case? China and India catching up in emissions/capita to the developed world? Or are you expecting them to keep their emissions at a fraction of ours?

philliphaydon 8y ago

China is doing pretty well. Long way to go tho.

tzs 8y ago

As far as climate goes, what matters is the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not where they came from. Greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for varying amount of time, depending on the particular gas. Whatever we finally decide we need to hold warming too, there is some maximum level of greenhouse gases that we can allow without warming going above our limit. If we take that level, and figure out each country's fair share of that, what we'll find is that the West is responsible for way more of the greenhouse gases present than is their fair share (with the US the farthest over its share), and India is way under their fair share. It would not be unreasonable for India to feel that it is unfair that the West used cheap fossil fuels to boost itself to first world status and in the processes went way over their fair quota for greenhouse gases and now wants India to stay way below its fair quota and give up cheap development to balance that. To make it fair, the West would need to subsidize India so that it can afford to become a developed country without having to use the cheap fossil fuels. Another way to think of it would be the West paying India for having used up India's quota for allowed greenhouse gases--essentially a kind of retroactive cap and trade system.

jogjayr 8y ago

India and China both have leadership that acknowledge the existence of anthropogenic climate change and is taking active measures. That would seem like table stakes but unfortunately we live in a world where that's not a given. India produces 20% of electricity from renewable sources, not including large hydro[1]. Including large hydro, it's 29%. In comparison, the US produces only 15% from renewable sources including hydro[2] which, of course, has lots of environmental costs before any energy generation begins. This is admittedly a meaningless factoid but still kind of cool - India has 5 of the 10 largest solar power stations in the world, more than any other nation.[5] The Delhi city government has made it mandatory for government and public institutions to install rooftop solar[6]. This is on top of a government program that provides subsidized loans for rooftop solar on factories.[7] There's plenty of other renewable energy, rainwater harvesting, and recycling programs at various levels of the Indian government - federal, state, and city. I'm not saying all of them will work (it's the government, after all) but it's solid effort, and hard cash being put in. Gasoline costs USD 4.55/gal in Mumbai today[8] - compared to around USD 3.50 in California, which already has the highest gas prices in the continental US. Due to the lower average disposable income in India, this means motorists prioritize fuel economy over comfort, and even safety. India's annual population growth rate is 1.10% - a shade above the global average of 1.09%[3]. It's also been steadily dropping for decades and that trend is expected to continue.[4] China's population growth rate is 0.41% - lower even than the US.[3] The only way India and China can keep from increasing their emissions is by stopping their economic progress. This would effectively keep their respective populations poor, undernourished, and lacking modern amenities such as healthcare, transportation, or entertainment. So what do you mean by "on board" exactly? What other shining exemplars of environmental rectitude can one point at to persuade India and China? What other nations have made, or committed to make, similar lifestyle sacrifices? 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United... 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio... 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India#Fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India#Fertilit... 5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_sta... 6. https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/government-announces-policy-to-make-delhi-solar-city-1416232 https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/government-announces-policy-... 7. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/12/07/india-transforms-market-for-rooftop-solar https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/12/07/india-t... 8. https://www.mypetrolprice.com/3/Petrol-price-in-Mumbai https://www.mypetrolprice.com/3/Petrol-price-in-Mumbai

flukus 8y ago

How low have we sunk that we expect developing nations to act concurrently with supposed world "leaders"? We should expect their emissions to increase and we'll meet them in CO2e per capita or the way down.

frankzinger 8y ago

I'm much more worried about the US right now.