Yes, I think a more accurate statement is: “you’re unlikely to consistently beat the market (i.e. do better than index funds) assuming not too many people are u

Yes, I think a more accurate statement is: “you’re unlikely to consistently beat the market (i.e. do better than index funds) assuming not too many people are using index funds”. Also, given the Nash equilibrium above, it follows that the best you can do is indeed follow the market.