I recommend the book “Paradoxes in Probability Theory”, by William Eckhardt. It refutes a number of these thought experiments that play weird games with probabi

I recommend the book “Paradoxes in Probability Theory”, by William Eckhardt. It refutes a number of these thought experiments that play weird games with probabilities, including the Doomsday Argument and the Simulation Hypothesis. I find its refutations convincing, although I could be wrong — there are many subtleties in play here. Regardless, if you find the Simulation Hypothesis or Doomsday Argument convincing, you ought to consider these refutations. Intuitively, it should be surprising that we can predict the apocalypse, or deduce the nature of an infinite regress of simulated universes, just by sitting in a chair and doing some basic arithmetic.