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It is not that the drive train differentiates the car. It is that the drive train constrains possible electric cars to be poor fits for the existing mass marke
by btilly 8y ago
It is not that the drive train differentiates the car. It is that the drive train constrains possible electric cars to be poor fits for the existing mass market. Which provides a market opportunity for manufacturers that focus on what is possible with the technology now, regardless of how well it fits in current Detroit marketing plans.
By the time electric is capable of being used for comparable cars at comparable prices for established lines of cars for established auto companies, they will be up against entrants in electric cars that have lower margins and more experience. When existing car manufacturers try to switch over they will wind up offering an inferior car at a worse price than the upstarts. This is a story that has played out many times in technology, and it never goes well for the established industry giants.
It doesn't matter if the competitors are delivering sports cars or glorified golf carts. What matters is that traditional auto companies with traditional dealer networks will be unable to compete head to head when they become competitive with the mass market.
Everyone knows about Tesla. Go look at https://www.fastcompany.com/40517240/the-biggest-electric-vehicle-company-youve-never-heard-of https://www.fastcompany.com/40517240/the-biggest-electric-ve... for a company approaching the problem from the low end. There are a dozen more where BYD came from. And other markets where competitors are developing.
There are many niches around the world for electric vehicles. They are filled with companies who are salivating at the juicy pork chop that is the US car market. Technology does not, yet, allow them to compete head to head in Detroit's main product categories. But when they finally can, established automakers won't stand a chance.
- threeseed 8y ago> they will wind up offering an inferior car at a worse price than the upstarts Jaguar I-Pace. Mercedes EQC. BMW iX3. Far superior to Tesla on all the metrics I mentioned before.
- r00fus 8y agoThe I-Pace is just starting sales. The EQC is not yet released. You can barely reserve the iX3. How are these even in the same ballpark as the Model S which has been out for 6 years and the Model 3 which has been selling in decent volume for months? We have very little data about how production models of these vehicles drive/maintenance/etc. It will be nice to see some competition to Telsa's Model X but none of them really compete with a Model 3 right now (ie, under $50k base).
- threeseed 8y agoYou can barely reserve a Tesla and the long term quality/maintenance of the Tesla 3 isn't known either. And if you want to compare with the Model 3 then obviously we have the hybrids (Prius, Camry) and the electrics (Leaf, Bolt). The point is that the idea that the established car manufacturers can't make a decent electric car is ridiculous. They can. In fact they look significantly better than a Tesla.
- r00fus 8y agoMany of my coworkers and friends have Model3s and they got them in weeks. Neither of the three you mention will receive shipments in 2018 if you order today. Clearly they can make a car "better" than the Tesla (if you're leaving alone drivetrain), but they generally cost more. That's the rub. Due to battery costs, any manufacturer not having a lock on battery supplies will either have to produce a vehicle that's weak on range/power or will cost more for the same range/power as a Tesla. That's why plugin hybrids are all that the big manufacturers offer that honestly compete with Tesla's offerings. You need 1/5th the battery for a hybrid as you would a full EV.