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Sounds pretty good to me. It's not spot on, but maybe up to 5 years off? For being predicted 20 years ago, it's basically correct. The majority of new vehicl

Sounds pretty good to me. It's not spot on, but maybe up to 5 years off? For being predicted 20 years ago, it's basically correct. The majority of new vehicles being fully electric will happen pretty soon. The economics of this happening are incredibly compelling, essentially inevitable. I would put this occurring before 2025, but it's hard to say. If the Chinese keep up the heavy push toward electrification, it will probably be sooner. If not, then later.

kllrnohj 8y ago
> The majority of new vehicles being fully electric will happen pretty soon. No? Not even remotely close to true. The Model 3 broke into the best selling sedan list. That's great, but it's not even in the same ballpark as an EV taking the top vehicle sales spot much less EVs being the majority of new vehicles. Just to return to reality here there are more F150s sold in 6 months than Tesla has sold in its lifetime (450k; https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2018/07/03/18-june-sales.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... vs. 300k; https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-delivered-300000th-vehicle/ https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-delivered-300000th-vehi...) In the first half of 2018 there were 8.5 million vehicles sold in the US alone. The Model 3's accomplishment of 40k vehicles is a rounding error.
- bas 8y ago
  Agreed. There is a reason Ford is exiting the sedan market in the US.
- romed 8y ago
  Right, it's amazing how blind people can be to reality. In Berkeley, the crunchiest of all possible american cities, the electric vehicle fleet is only 2% of cars on the road, and much less than 2% of all the vehicle-miles. Cars last for 20 years and in the last decade the median age of cars on the road has dramatically increased. For half the fleet to turn over you'd basically need for electrics to have 100% market share for many years.

kllrnohj 8y ago

> The majority of new vehicles being fully electric will happen pretty soon. No? Not even remotely close to true. The Model 3 broke into the best selling sedan list. That's great, but it's not even in the same ballpark as an EV taking the top vehicle sales spot much less EVs being the majority of new vehicles. Just to return to reality here there are more F150s sold in 6 months than Tesla has sold in its lifetime (450k; https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2018/07/03/18-june-sales.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... vs. 300k; https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-delivered-300000th-vehicle/ https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-delivered-300000th-vehi...) In the first half of 2018 there were 8.5 million vehicles sold in the US alone. The Model 3's accomplishment of 40k vehicles is a rounding error.

bas 8y ago
Agreed. There is a reason Ford is exiting the sedan market in the US.
romed 8y ago
Right, it's amazing how blind people can be to reality. In Berkeley, the crunchiest of all possible american cities, the electric vehicle fleet is only 2% of cars on the road, and much less than 2% of all the vehicle-miles. Cars last for 20 years and in the last decade the median age of cars on the road has dramatically increased. For half the fleet to turn over you'd basically need for electrics to have 100% market share for many years.