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I would like to go on the record as saying that the big car companies of today, short of a miracle, are on track to meet the big mobile phone companies of the p

I would like to go on the record as saying that the big car companies of today, short of a miracle, are on track to meet the big mobile phone companies of the pre-iPhone era. Remember when Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola, Alcatel, Sony seemed unassailable?

Apocryphon 8y ago
I would dispute that, in that big car companies have much deeper pockets, and thus have been readily spending on new tech, e.g. the big automaker acquisition of Cruise, Maven, Chariot. They seem more responsive to the changing nature of the industry.
- alexandros 8y ago
  Acquisitions are all well and good, but unfortunately, when an asteroid hits you, all the umbrellas in the world won't help. Tesla has been attacking the hard problems (like battery cost) for close to a decade while most others kept busy making fun of them. When you see Tesla causing drops to the tune of 15% or even 20% to the sales of premium ICE car brands, and who knows how much more it will be in the next quarters, a hit this big and this sudden can be quite destabilizing to a company with a highly optimized supply chain. Also, these companies haven't delivered something truly new in decades, and to do so now, under the gun, would require not a product revamp, but a culture revamp. Never heard one of those being pulled off. Innovation is hard, let's ask for government assistance: https://www.reuters.com/article/autoshow-paris-electric-squeeze/rpt-update-1-electric-cars-cast-growing-shadow-on-profits-idUSL8N1WI0VK https://www.reuters.com/article/autoshow-paris-electric-sque...
- tomp 8y ago
  > They seem more responsive to the changing nature of the industry. Yet most of their responses so far are on paper - they will start producing electric cars, sometime in the future.
- revscat 8y ago
  I don’t think the big automakers — especially the Americans and Japanese — can switch gears, as it were. The reasons for this are discussed elsewhere in this thread, but thus far the EV models produced by the legacy manufacturers have been underadvertised, token vehicles. They are not shifting resources away from their current exclusive focus on ICEs, and there is no sign they ever will. Sure, they’ll do a press release. Or something like the Bolt that is lived by owners but forgotten by GM itself, who happily continues on basically the same as yesterday. They can’t change. Maybe VW. Maybe. But GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda... I don’t see it. Toyota is still trying to make hydrogen a thing, ferchrissake. Meanwhile Tesla is eating the luxury segment alive. If — and it’s a big if — Tesla can achieve profitability with the Model 3 and get their crossover SUV into production, they’ll own the world.
btilly 8y ago
That's been obvious to me for about 20 years. Ever since I read the case study in The Innovator's Dilemma explaining that electric cars would take over around 2020. If Elon should burn out and crash Tesla, it will still happen. Only instead of being Tesla delivering the death blow, it will be those electric golf carts growing up, turning into full cars, and wiping out traditional automakers. Either way the underlying dynamic is the same. As batteries become good and cheap enough for mass cars, there is an opportunity for upstarts who only do electric to take on gas cars.
- romed 8y ago
  The case for electric cars taking over by 2020 is looking pretty darn wrong at this point, isn’t it?
  - ricardobeat 8y ago
    Is it? In Europe we’re seeing sales shoot up like a rocket. Model 3 deliveries haven’t even started yet. With the Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro the market will grow even more, and in 2020 VW will start flooding the market with EVs.
    - jmisavage 8y ago
      My only concern with VW is whether they'll be able to produce those battery packs as fast as the cars. They're certainly ambitious, they want to make 100k the first year and the plant they're using can make 1,500 a day which sounds insane when you hear Tesla is only making 5,000 a month. [1] https://www.vwvortex.com/news/volkswagen-news/d-electric-hatch-will-get-three-battery-options-report/ https://www.vwvortex.com/news/volkswagen-news/d-electric-hat...
      - greglindahl 8y ago
        Tesla made 80,000 battery packs last quarter, and said that they peaked at 10,000 Model 3 battery packs in one week.
  - 8y ago
threeseed 8y ago
There is no evidence of this at all. The world is full of upstarts being crushed by large incumbents. And don't remember we still have Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Amazon etc all still doing very well.
kllrnohj 8y ago
Both Audi & Jaguar are looking on track to, on their first attempts, quite soundly beat Tesla at the electric SUV game. Similar price, similar range, and vastly better quality. And really if you think about it that shouldn't be surprising. The big car companies today don't need a miracle at all. They are in a pretty good spot. They know how to do all the really hard stuff about building a car (the actual manufacturing & quality control stuff - the things Tesla is really bad at and struggling hard to figure out). They just need to do the easy part of putting in an EV powertrain. And they are already used to dealing with multiple powertrains for the same car, even. Tesla took the risk to prove it out, but there's no reason to believe the big companies will be unable to change course on this. It's not at all like the pre-iPhone vs. post-iPhone where the entire UX interaction across the entire platform changed. This is all things considered a pretty small part of the car that's changed, and in pretty straightforward ways.
- jungturk 8y ago
  I wonder if they're behind the curve when it comes to the software that's become so central to the Tesla experience.
  - SEJeff 8y ago
    Dealer network contractually prevents them from doing OTA updates for most things. I was told this at a Ford dealership (I've got a Fiesta and a Model 3) when I asked they they couldn't OTA update the old Sync voice nav vs putting in a USB drive to update some stuff with it recently.
- illumin8 8y ago
  Sorry, I hate to break it to you, but Audi's E-tron is basically being used as an example of how far behind Tesla the rest of the industry is when it comes to efficiency and battery technology: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing-electric-car-launch-is-a-big-win-for-tesla.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing...
  - kllrnohj 8y ago
stephengillie 8y ago
Really this is like the start of digital cameras. Computer companies made the first digital cameras, then eventually camera companies made good digital cameras.
- illumin8 8y ago
  Are you sure about that? The best cameras nowadays seem to be made by computer companies (Apple, Samsung, Huawei, etc)
  - stephengillie 8y ago
    I thought RED made the best camera today.
  - dingaling 8y ago
    Sony, Samsumg and Canon dominate the camera sensor market in that order of volume.
nickik 8y ago
While I agree that Tesla is in a good spot, I think you underestimate just how huge the car market is. Tesla would have to scale exponentially for a long time to even have chance to capture so much of the market. And outside of Tesla there is not much, there is no electric car Android, specially outside of China.

Apocryphon 8y ago

I would dispute that, in that big car companies have much deeper pockets, and thus have been readily spending on new tech, e.g. the big automaker acquisition of Cruise, Maven, Chariot. They seem more responsive to the changing nature of the industry.

alexandros 8y ago
Acquisitions are all well and good, but unfortunately, when an asteroid hits you, all the umbrellas in the world won't help. Tesla has been attacking the hard problems (like battery cost) for close to a decade while most others kept busy making fun of them. When you see Tesla causing drops to the tune of 15% or even 20% to the sales of premium ICE car brands, and who knows how much more it will be in the next quarters, a hit this big and this sudden can be quite destabilizing to a company with a highly optimized supply chain. Also, these companies haven't delivered something truly new in decades, and to do so now, under the gun, would require not a product revamp, but a culture revamp. Never heard one of those being pulled off. Innovation is hard, let's ask for government assistance: https://www.reuters.com/article/autoshow-paris-electric-squeeze/rpt-update-1-electric-cars-cast-growing-shadow-on-profits-idUSL8N1WI0VK https://www.reuters.com/article/autoshow-paris-electric-sque...
tomp 8y ago
> They seem more responsive to the changing nature of the industry. Yet most of their responses so far are on paper - they will start producing electric cars, sometime in the future.
revscat 8y ago
I don’t think the big automakers — especially the Americans and Japanese — can switch gears, as it were. The reasons for this are discussed elsewhere in this thread, but thus far the EV models produced by the legacy manufacturers have been underadvertised, token vehicles. They are not shifting resources away from their current exclusive focus on ICEs, and there is no sign they ever will. Sure, they’ll do a press release. Or something like the Bolt that is lived by owners but forgotten by GM itself, who happily continues on basically the same as yesterday. They can’t change. Maybe VW. Maybe. But GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda... I don’t see it. Toyota is still trying to make hydrogen a thing, ferchrissake. Meanwhile Tesla is eating the luxury segment alive. If — and it’s a big if — Tesla can achieve profitability with the Model 3 and get their crossover SUV into production, they’ll own the world.

btilly 8y ago

That's been obvious to me for about 20 years. Ever since I read the case study in The Innovator's Dilemma explaining that electric cars would take over around 2020. If Elon should burn out and crash Tesla, it will still happen. Only instead of being Tesla delivering the death blow, it will be those electric golf carts growing up, turning into full cars, and wiping out traditional automakers. Either way the underlying dynamic is the same. As batteries become good and cheap enough for mass cars, there is an opportunity for upstarts who only do electric to take on gas cars.

romed 8y ago
The case for electric cars taking over by 2020 is looking pretty darn wrong at this point, isn’t it?
- ricardobeat 8y ago
  Is it? In Europe we’re seeing sales shoot up like a rocket. Model 3 deliveries haven’t even started yet. With the Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro the market will grow even more, and in 2020 VW will start flooding the market with EVs.
  - jmisavage 8y ago
    My only concern with VW is whether they'll be able to produce those battery packs as fast as the cars. They're certainly ambitious, they want to make 100k the first year and the plant they're using can make 1,500 a day which sounds insane when you hear Tesla is only making 5,000 a month. [1] https://www.vwvortex.com/news/volkswagen-news/d-electric-hatch-will-get-three-battery-options-report/ https://www.vwvortex.com/news/volkswagen-news/d-electric-hat...
    - greglindahl 8y ago
      Tesla made 80,000 battery packs last quarter, and said that they peaked at 10,000 Model 3 battery packs in one week.
- 8y ago

threeseed 8y ago

There is no evidence of this at all. The world is full of upstarts being crushed by large incumbents. And don't remember we still have Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Amazon etc all still doing very well.

kllrnohj 8y ago

Both Audi & Jaguar are looking on track to, on their first attempts, quite soundly beat Tesla at the electric SUV game. Similar price, similar range, and vastly better quality. And really if you think about it that shouldn't be surprising. The big car companies today don't need a miracle at all. They are in a pretty good spot. They know how to do all the really hard stuff about building a car (the actual manufacturing & quality control stuff - the things Tesla is really bad at and struggling hard to figure out). They just need to do the easy part of putting in an EV powertrain. And they are already used to dealing with multiple powertrains for the same car, even. Tesla took the risk to prove it out, but there's no reason to believe the big companies will be unable to change course on this. It's not at all like the pre-iPhone vs. post-iPhone where the entire UX interaction across the entire platform changed. This is all things considered a pretty small part of the car that's changed, and in pretty straightforward ways.

jungturk 8y ago
I wonder if they're behind the curve when it comes to the software that's become so central to the Tesla experience.
- SEJeff 8y ago
  Dealer network contractually prevents them from doing OTA updates for most things. I was told this at a Ford dealership (I've got a Fiesta and a Model 3) when I asked they they couldn't OTA update the old Sync voice nav vs putting in a USB drive to update some stuff with it recently.
illumin8 8y ago
Sorry, I hate to break it to you, but Audi's E-tron is basically being used as an example of how far behind Tesla the rest of the industry is when it comes to efficiency and battery technology: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing-electric-car-launch-is-a-big-win-for-tesla.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing...
- kllrnohj 8y ago

stephengillie 8y ago

Really this is like the start of digital cameras. Computer companies made the first digital cameras, then eventually camera companies made good digital cameras.

illumin8 8y ago
Are you sure about that? The best cameras nowadays seem to be made by computer companies (Apple, Samsung, Huawei, etc)
- stephengillie 8y ago
  I thought RED made the best camera today.
- dingaling 8y ago
  Sony, Samsumg and Canon dominate the camera sensor market in that order of volume.

nickik 8y ago

While I agree that Tesla is in a good spot, I think you underestimate just how huge the car market is. Tesla would have to scale exponentially for a long time to even have chance to capture so much of the market. And outside of Tesla there is not much, there is no electric car Android, specially outside of China.