6 ms·

It’s a cool demo. We’re definitely getting better at making humanoids. I would guess this is a pretty “hard coded” demo designed to work for this exact room set

It’s a cool demo. We’re definitely getting better at making humanoids. I would guess this is a pretty “hard coded” demo designed to work for this exact room setup only. It’s going to be some time before we have the machine intelligence necessary to do enough for this robot to find a toolbox on its own, retrieve the necessary tools, unload the drywall from a truck, carry it to the room in question, install it, and complain about OSHA all autonomously. Still, I’ve never seen this before. We are making progress. Just keep in mind that an actual robot that would do this commercially is probably 20 years away. Someone else said 10-20, and I’m inclined to think 20+ is more realistic. As in, you hire robots for your construction because it’s cheaper/better.

deevolution 8y ago
Im optimistic about 10 years... even if they are slow and clunky theyd be able to work 24/7 whereas human works cant or at least be optimized for tasks that are more difficult or dangerous for a human to perform. They might only take up 1% of the work force but i think that number will grow quickly
sandov 8y ago
>It’s going to be some time before we have the machine intelligence necessary to do enough for this robot to find a toolbox on its own, retrieve the necessary tools, unload the drywall from a truck, carry it to the room in question, install it, and complain about OSHA all autonomously. I don't think it's necessary to develop machine intelligence to do some of those tasks. The toolbox could could emit EM pulses so the robot can find it, the tools could be put in a specific order and put back the same way by the robot, the drywall could have easy-to-remove arrow stickers so the robot knows how to find it's borders, etc.
- asdkhadsj 8y ago
  That actually brings up an interesting concept that never occurred to me. We could get automation of complex tasks far earlier than I had thought. We're at this divide where we're getting capable with our understanding of motion and mechanics, but intelligently figuring things out is a massive roadblock. What if, as you say, we make very dumb robots where their interaction with the world has been entirely laid out by humans. Ie, a humanoid robot making toast seems difficult. Yet if we give it the exact dimensions of the room, rf sensors for locations of shelving, cabinets, bread, etc, it seems possible with our current tech that the robot could be programmed to handle dynamic environments as long as the inputs were laid out ahead of time. There's limited value in something like toast making, defining the inputs would be a hassle. Yet, for house building, or factory automation, if every piece, shape, location and dimension was known it seems a fleet of robots could build a house with quickness and ease, no "intelligence" needed. Humans would need to lay a foundation to a spec of dimensions, but then the bots could go nuts. Neat!
  - DougWebb 8y ago
    What you're describing sounds like the way pre-fab homes are built. A computer model is created which specifies every part, and that gets sent to the factory floor where all of the wood is picked, cut, and assembled into pre-fabbed shipable components. As much work is done in the factory as possible while keeping all of the parts flat so they're easy to stack onto a truck. The cutting is all done by CNC machines, the assembly is all done using jigs and much of it could be done by assembly-line-style robots, moving stuff around can be done by simple robots as well. The components get stacked on a truck by humans running machines, but the stacking order is pre-determined by the computer model, so this can potentially be automated by an oversized version of common manufacturing machines. The truck is driven to the job site by a human, but that might one day be done with an autonomous vehicle. The final step is assembly on-site, which is done by humans running big machines. This is potentially the only part where humans need to be heavily involved, to make sure everything goes correctly together and to do the fine adjustments and small details.
- aperrien 8y ago
  The translated source document implies that they already mark the drywall with QR codes. Considering all the other markings I've seen on drywall, this should be trival to add at the factory.
- phs318u 8y ago
  Two and a half years ago I wrote a paper on "robotic automation" for a big financial services company. One of the conclusions was that, while the world of things was heretofore designed with humans in mind, in "the near future" (i.e. about where we are now), "stuff" would be designed for "machine-first" use, rather than "human-first" use. This isn't surprising. We've seen this before in the transition from "animal engines" to "steam engines" (think - the whole infrastructure around the care and feeding of the animals etc transitioning to manufacture, fuelling and support for steam engines). We're starting to see it now in the (slow) transition from "carbon-fuel transport" to "electric transport".
  - geezerjay 8y ago
    > One of the conclusions was that, while the world of things was heretofore designed with humans in mind, in "the near future" (i.e. about where we are now), "stuff" would be designed for "machine-first" use, rather than "human-first" use. This. Just to provide an example, humanity already has self-driving cars for decades, and they are deployed and are extensively used in public transoortation. The trick to solve this problem was to not force human-designed solutions to an automation problem. Thus, instead of trying to automate vehicles to run on roads, we have vehicles running on railway tracks. Problem solved.
debacle 8y ago
The only reason we use drywall in the first place is because of the cost of labor + time. Plaster is far superior by almost any measure. If you created some sort of plaster roomba/printer/extruder, you'd obviate the need for drywall. Could probably use manufactured or recycled lath of some sort. Cost/sqft of Drywall is ~1/3rd that of plaster (1.50 vs 3.50-4.50). Most of the price difference is additional labor.
- dustinmoorenet 8y ago
  You still have to put up plaster board (basically drywall) first before you float the surface with plaster. I can't imagine plasterers are putting up plaster slats in stud walls anymore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lath_and_plaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lath_and_plaster
  - gumby 8y ago
    FWIW my house in Palo Alto (total remodel 2001-2003) is lath and plaster throughout (indoor and out), all done by union plasterers. They are a specialist sub niche in moderately high demand around here.
- baybal2 8y ago
  Plaster is weaker, and it cracks.
  - debacle 8y ago
    Weaker in what capacity? It's no weaker than drywall if it has lath behind it and much harder, though I will admit you need more (thicker) plaster to prevent cracks.
    - baybal2 8y ago
      Well, I also admit that it is better to say that it will be as strong as the lath behind it. Drywall on other had is stronger by itself for the equivalent thickness, and MgO board beats any other wall panel on that.

deevolution 8y ago

Im optimistic about 10 years... even if they are slow and clunky theyd be able to work 24/7 whereas human works cant or at least be optimized for tasks that are more difficult or dangerous for a human to perform. They might only take up 1% of the work force but i think that number will grow quickly

sandov 8y ago

>It’s going to be some time before we have the machine intelligence necessary to do enough for this robot to find a toolbox on its own, retrieve the necessary tools, unload the drywall from a truck, carry it to the room in question, install it, and complain about OSHA all autonomously. I don't think it's necessary to develop machine intelligence to do some of those tasks. The toolbox could could emit EM pulses so the robot can find it, the tools could be put in a specific order and put back the same way by the robot, the drywall could have easy-to-remove arrow stickers so the robot knows how to find it's borders, etc.

asdkhadsj 8y ago
That actually brings up an interesting concept that never occurred to me. We could get automation of complex tasks far earlier than I had thought. We're at this divide where we're getting capable with our understanding of motion and mechanics, but intelligently figuring things out is a massive roadblock. What if, as you say, we make very dumb robots where their interaction with the world has been entirely laid out by humans. Ie, a humanoid robot making toast seems difficult. Yet if we give it the exact dimensions of the room, rf sensors for locations of shelving, cabinets, bread, etc, it seems possible with our current tech that the robot could be programmed to handle dynamic environments as long as the inputs were laid out ahead of time. There's limited value in something like toast making, defining the inputs would be a hassle. Yet, for house building, or factory automation, if every piece, shape, location and dimension was known it seems a fleet of robots could build a house with quickness and ease, no "intelligence" needed. Humans would need to lay a foundation to a spec of dimensions, but then the bots could go nuts. Neat!
- DougWebb 8y ago
  What you're describing sounds like the way pre-fab homes are built. A computer model is created which specifies every part, and that gets sent to the factory floor where all of the wood is picked, cut, and assembled into pre-fabbed shipable components. As much work is done in the factory as possible while keeping all of the parts flat so they're easy to stack onto a truck. The cutting is all done by CNC machines, the assembly is all done using jigs and much of it could be done by assembly-line-style robots, moving stuff around can be done by simple robots as well. The components get stacked on a truck by humans running machines, but the stacking order is pre-determined by the computer model, so this can potentially be automated by an oversized version of common manufacturing machines. The truck is driven to the job site by a human, but that might one day be done with an autonomous vehicle. The final step is assembly on-site, which is done by humans running big machines. This is potentially the only part where humans need to be heavily involved, to make sure everything goes correctly together and to do the fine adjustments and small details.
aperrien 8y ago
The translated source document implies that they already mark the drywall with QR codes. Considering all the other markings I've seen on drywall, this should be trival to add at the factory.
phs318u 8y ago
Two and a half years ago I wrote a paper on "robotic automation" for a big financial services company. One of the conclusions was that, while the world of things was heretofore designed with humans in mind, in "the near future" (i.e. about where we are now), "stuff" would be designed for "machine-first" use, rather than "human-first" use. This isn't surprising. We've seen this before in the transition from "animal engines" to "steam engines" (think - the whole infrastructure around the care and feeding of the animals etc transitioning to manufacture, fuelling and support for steam engines). We're starting to see it now in the (slow) transition from "carbon-fuel transport" to "electric transport".
- geezerjay 8y ago
  > One of the conclusions was that, while the world of things was heretofore designed with humans in mind, in "the near future" (i.e. about where we are now), "stuff" would be designed for "machine-first" use, rather than "human-first" use. This. Just to provide an example, humanity already has self-driving cars for decades, and they are deployed and are extensively used in public transoortation. The trick to solve this problem was to not force human-designed solutions to an automation problem. Thus, instead of trying to automate vehicles to run on roads, we have vehicles running on railway tracks. Problem solved.

debacle 8y ago

The only reason we use drywall in the first place is because of the cost of labor + time. Plaster is far superior by almost any measure. If you created some sort of plaster roomba/printer/extruder, you'd obviate the need for drywall. Could probably use manufactured or recycled lath of some sort. Cost/sqft of Drywall is ~1/3rd that of plaster (1.50 vs 3.50-4.50). Most of the price difference is additional labor.

dustinmoorenet 8y ago
You still have to put up plaster board (basically drywall) first before you float the surface with plaster. I can't imagine plasterers are putting up plaster slats in stud walls anymore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lath_and_plaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lath_and_plaster
- gumby 8y ago
  FWIW my house in Palo Alto (total remodel 2001-2003) is lath and plaster throughout (indoor and out), all done by union plasterers. They are a specialist sub niche in moderately high demand around here.
baybal2 8y ago
Plaster is weaker, and it cracks.
- debacle 8y ago
  Weaker in what capacity? It's no weaker than drywall if it has lath behind it and much harder, though I will admit you need more (thicker) plaster to prevent cracks.
  - baybal2 8y ago
    Well, I also admit that it is better to say that it will be as strong as the lath behind it. Drywall on other had is stronger by itself for the equivalent thickness, and MgO board beats any other wall panel on that.