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There needs to be a similar moratorium on this red herring of an argument. Buildings off the rental market don’t count as vacant rentals. Failure to understan

There needs to be a similar moratorium on this red herring of an argument. Buildings off the rental market don’t count as vacant rentals. Failure to understand this normally subtle distinction retards the progress of this discussion. If I said there are very few single women in SF because 98% of marriage-minded women are married, you’d see the flaw in the reasoning I’m talking about.

epistasis 8y ago
This is not a very effective way to convince bystanders that have not yet already come to a conclusion. I'm left wondering what you mean, but also afraid to engage because you're pretty hostile to what seems to be some great data around what you're saying. But to address that data, you now say that clearly what we thought you were saying was not what you meant, and that we should be disallowed from bringing up data? But at the risk that I'm continuing to misunderstand what you're saying, could you point out an example of a building that should be for rent but that is vacant instead, as an example so that we can understand you? What mechanism do you suggest that can find such buildings and compel them to become rented? Are you suggesting something like building on vacant land or underutilized land (the YIMBY position), or just existing buildings?
- BurritoAlPastor 8y ago
  I don’t have a horse in this fight, but: In ordinary speech, the word “vacant” is generally synonymous with “empty”, and makes no implication about market status. You use the word the same way above, actually. So it’s lame to characterize that “we thought you were saying” vacancies in the politically defined sense of some not-yet-linked data.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- michaelt 8y ago
  I'm left wondering what you mean, As you can tell from the fact the rental vacancy rate is 4.2%, the homeowner vacancy rate is 0.7%, and the gross vacancy rate is higher than either at 6.0%, there are vacant properties that don't fall into either rental or homeowner. For example properties for occasional use, properties empty for repairs or renovation, those used as offices or storage, guest houses and AirBnB properties, properties where the owner hasn't decided what to do, and so on. If you look at [1] (which sadly doesn't provide breakdowns by individual metropolitan area) you'll find that inside US metropolitan statistical areas, 2.4% of properties are vacant but for rent; while 4.8% of properties are "Held off market" In other words, for every one vacant rental home, there are two homes that aren't on the rental or sale market. [1] https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/q218ind.html https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/q218ind.html Table 10. Percent Distribution by Type of Vacant by Metro/Nonmetro Area [XLSX - 375 KB]
  - epistasis 8y ago
    Thank you, that explains the data. I'm not following innocentfelon's point though, because it doesn't look like that can be the real villain here. SF's population has increased 10% since 2010, and I don't know how many people have been priced out, but it's probably at least on that order of magnitude. Held off existing properties don't make much of a dent into that delta, and it's unclear how to lower them even more if they're already so low. It's also unclear why it shouldn't be allowed to be brought up.
    - innocentfelon 8y ago
      This latest batch of census numbers still hinges on the subset of structures considered to be rental housing or owner-occupied housing. And I believe the census goes by what the property owner claims. “My 120-unit condo building with nobody living in it? Yeah, that’s not housing, Ms. census taker.” “Ok.” And even that doesn’t include industrial, commercial, and office properties that should be converted to housing in response to fair market demand, artificially withheld to make them more liquid as stores of value. The town is full of these and few people notice because they’re not housing and they’re not for rent.

epistasis 8y ago

This is not a very effective way to convince bystanders that have not yet already come to a conclusion. I'm left wondering what you mean, but also afraid to engage because you're pretty hostile to what seems to be some great data around what you're saying. But to address that data, you now say that clearly what we thought you were saying was not what you meant, and that we should be disallowed from bringing up data? But at the risk that I'm continuing to misunderstand what you're saying, could you point out an example of a building that should be for rent but that is vacant instead, as an example so that we can understand you? What mechanism do you suggest that can find such buildings and compel them to become rented? Are you suggesting something like building on vacant land or underutilized land (the YIMBY position), or just existing buildings?

BurritoAlPastor 8y ago
I don’t have a horse in this fight, but: In ordinary speech, the word “vacant” is generally synonymous with “empty”, and makes no implication about market status. You use the word the same way above, actually. So it’s lame to characterize that “we thought you were saying” vacancies in the politically defined sense of some not-yet-linked data.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
michaelt 8y ago
I'm left wondering what you mean, As you can tell from the fact the rental vacancy rate is 4.2%, the homeowner vacancy rate is 0.7%, and the gross vacancy rate is higher than either at 6.0%, there are vacant properties that don't fall into either rental or homeowner. For example properties for occasional use, properties empty for repairs or renovation, those used as offices or storage, guest houses and AirBnB properties, properties where the owner hasn't decided what to do, and so on. If you look at [1] (which sadly doesn't provide breakdowns by individual metropolitan area) you'll find that inside US metropolitan statistical areas, 2.4% of properties are vacant but for rent; while 4.8% of properties are "Held off market" In other words, for every one vacant rental home, there are two homes that aren't on the rental or sale market. [1] https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/q218ind.html https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/q218ind.html Table 10. Percent Distribution by Type of Vacant by Metro/Nonmetro Area [XLSX - 375 KB]
- epistasis 8y ago
  Thank you, that explains the data. I'm not following innocentfelon's point though, because it doesn't look like that can be the real villain here. SF's population has increased 10% since 2010, and I don't know how many people have been priced out, but it's probably at least on that order of magnitude. Held off existing properties don't make much of a dent into that delta, and it's unclear how to lower them even more if they're already so low. It's also unclear why it shouldn't be allowed to be brought up.
  - innocentfelon 8y ago
    This latest batch of census numbers still hinges on the subset of structures considered to be rental housing or owner-occupied housing. And I believe the census goes by what the property owner claims. “My 120-unit condo building with nobody living in it? Yeah, that’s not housing, Ms. census taker.” “Ok.” And even that doesn’t include industrial, commercial, and office properties that should be converted to housing in response to fair market demand, artificially withheld to make them more liquid as stores of value. The town is full of these and few people notice because they’re not housing and they’re not for rent.