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Sure it benefits Tesla to produce more cars to compete with the big auto companies. But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost

Sure it benefits Tesla to produce more cars to compete with the big auto companies. But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity. Sure your existing car companies are better right now at physically building the conventional parts of a car, but the most expensive part of an electric car is the batteries. Tesla's partnership with Panasonic (Gigafactory) is their true advantage over all the other manufacturers, since they have a reliable source for large quantities of batteries. The rest of car companies are fighting for supply from LG Chem.

dgritsko 8y ago
Don't forget the Supercharger network; seems like that's another big part of Tesla's first-mover advantage that any serious competitor will need to address at some point if they want to "catch up".
- sbradford26 8y ago
  Oh definitely, so there are plenty of other electric car charging stations. The issue though is that there is no uniform paying experience and also you don't know what kind of charging speed you will get. I have been looking at the new Hyundai Kona Electric and the Kia niro EV which are both competitively priced.... But you don't have the super charger network which might be a deal breaker.
  - mikestew 8y ago
    The issue though is that there is no uniform paying experience I grab the appropriate card of the two (Blink and ChargePoint) in the console, tap it, sorted. But you don't have the super charger network which might be a deal breaker. In seven years of Nissan Leaf ownership, I’d bet i could count the number of times I’ve used a public charger on both hands. Electric’s aren’t like ICE where you’re always looking for a place to fill up. You fill up at home, like civilized people do. Super charger is nice, but I personally wouldn’t factor it in.
    - sbradford26 8y ago
      Oh definitely, the charging at in my garage is a main reason that I would like an EV. My issue is that my family lives in Michigan while I am in upstate NY. So the super charger stations would be super useful for that trip when I don't fly. That definitely is a small amount of my total travels but I only have one car, so it is a consideration. Also it is good to hear that it only takes about two cards for charging. It is something that you think about but can't really test how it would work with your driving until you do it.
      - Symbiote 8y ago
        An irrelevant question: Do drive through Canada, or is it too much hassle? (I live in Europe; within most of the EU a national border is irrelevant to planning a route – there is no check, just a blue sign "Welcome to XYZ". When I visited Quebec, I couldn't drive with the rental car to the USA, so I never saw the border.)
        mikestew 8y ago
        If your question is not directed specifically at OP, and is "if you live close to the US/Canadian border...", I can answer since OP hasn't. Being a few hours from the border in WA state, we don't think a thing about crossing the border. It takes time (an hour or more, depending), and as a U. S. citizen I find it ironic that coming back is often more hassle than leaving, but we otherwise don't think much about it except for the time needed.
    - joeyramone 8y ago
      I can imagine you never took a long road trip (say 600+ miles) with your Leaf. Then you'll understand the value of a fast charging network like Tesla has.
      - linsomniac 8y ago
        Agreed. I worried after I got my Tesla 2 years ago that it would just be a toy, only usable for short range trips. But 2 weeks after we got it we went on a 2,300 mile each way road trip, and it worked great. I was sold on the super charger turning the car into a truly useful thing instead of just a toy. And the new ~3.5x faster chargers are going to make it a gas-like experience.
- derekp7 8y ago
  Couldn't the mainstream auto manufactures install chargers at each of their dealers? It seems that for any major car brand, there are more dealerships than there are Tesla chargers.
  - QuotedForTruth 8y ago
    Seems like a decent idea, but it wouldnt be free. The dealers are independent businesses. Also have you ever seen a dealership with a bunch of empty parking spaces? The charging stations will be competing with the dealership's storage space for cars.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    Dealerships aren't in the right locations to make long-distance travel work out. You'd have huge holes in the network.
  - kbob 8y ago
    Would you enjoy spending several hours of your vacation hanging around auto dealers' showrooms?
    - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
      How is Tesla any different? My road trip to the beach would take 4 hours more in a Tesla than a ICE. That time would be waiting at rest stops along the way...
- compcoffee 8y ago
  >Don't forget the Supercharger network Part of the VW "Dieselgate" settlement requires VW to invest $2BB in charger infrastructure. Installing chargers is not rocket science, nor a huge advantage.
  - cowmix 8y ago
    It is harder than you think and it is a HUGE advantage. I have a non-Tesla EV, trust me, the public charging network is pretty horrible.
- mrfusion 8y ago
  I think a cool start up idea would be to install fast chargers at peoples homes and they could then offer them up to travelers for a fee. The startup would install the charger and split the fee with the homeowner. Anyone want to work on that with me? Or feel free to critique. It’s sort of like air bnb for car charging.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    Fast chargers need a high voltage electric hookup, which is expensive and often unavailable in residential neighborhoods.
  - brianwawok 8y ago
    Capital costs seem rough. You can’t use a normal wall plug for a supercharger. How many amps do they pull, 200? You would need a new breaker box and the super charger hardware.... say 10k per house. Who is going to spend 10k to get a charger in their driveway strangers can stop by and pay you $20 to use? Uber works because people already own the car. Even EV people don’t already own a supercharger, they have a much simpler one.
- octorian 8y ago
  > Don't forget the Supercharger network For some reason, the majority of the "competition" does forget the supercharger network. Its the reason Tesla is a road-trip car, and capable of being your primary/only vehicle. Meanwhile all other EVs are nothing more than commuter cars. Maybe suitable for day-trips if you're really lucky. Tesla also acknowledges that you need these high-speed charging stations conveniently located along the highway. Not in the middle of town, and certainly not in the parking lot of a store you'd never spend more than 10 minutes at.
lykr0n 8y ago
I don't think so either, but the hoops the big auto companies need to jump through are a lot lower. Once they have the design, they have the supply chains, assembly lines, and logics networks in place to go from 0 to 100 in months not years like Tesla. Batteries are going to be an issue
bpicolo 8y ago
Not to mention that the battery business is a huge deal on it's own - potentially as big as car business https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-australias-tesla-battery-on-track-to-make-back-a-third-of-cost-in-a-year https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-aus...
MrEfficiency 8y ago
> But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity. This is ignorant and downplays the companies that have existed for decades. Tesla isnt profitable, the rest of the auto companies are profitable. These auto companies have already developed electric vehicles(see Bolt and Leaf) but demand doesnt cause them to produce Tesla amounts of electric vehicles. If they saw an increase in demand, they will use their billion dollar infrastructure to continue to produce vehicles. To think there is any 'struggling to keep up' with Tesla for automotive is an ignorance of the automotive industry. Tesla is trying to survive, the established players are developing their own new technology.
- lykr0n 8y ago
  This. Ford makes 1.6 million cars (worldwide) per quarter. Tesla, while impressive, cannot keep up when someone else enters their market segment. If tomorrow Ford/Chevy/Toyota announces a model 3 like car for 2020 release with something close to the 3's specs, Tesla is dead unless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat. Tesla can do what- 350k to 400k cars a year based on current numbers? The big players can do that in weeks. I think there is some merit to the point about batteries- Tesla has a supply chain in place for that while everyone else is going to be fighting on the open market (as far as I know).
  - kemiller 8y ago
    The battery is not an afterthought. The big players do not have an answer to the gigafactory at this point. They can build all the cars they want but without batteries they won’t be electric.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
  - dmode 8y ago
    This is almost sounds eerily like "Blackberry will release a phone that will kill Apple". If it were that easy to just crank out an EV, all manufacturers had a 2 year window to release one and capture the Model 3 backlog. But nobody has released a compelling product. As it is not about just manufacturing a product. It is about manufacturing an EV that is competitive with Tesla's software prowess, monthly over the air updates, massive super charger network, battery capabilities, cooling tech, a no dealership model, and brand signalling. Beyond that, big cos just don't venture into a new market. A electric BMW 3 will actually cannibalize their own 3 series first. Can they actually sell a higher margin electric 3 series ? Otherwise investors will punish BMW. Will their dealership network accept selling a lower margin product ? A product that requires fewer service visit ? There are a TON of considerations on why Big Cos are caught flat footed by disrupters. Look at SAP and how it missed the Cloud movement as Salesforce ate their cake. Google and Yahoo, Walmart and Amazon, and many more

dgritsko 8y ago

Don't forget the Supercharger network; seems like that's another big part of Tesla's first-mover advantage that any serious competitor will need to address at some point if they want to "catch up".

sbradford26 8y ago
Oh definitely, so there are plenty of other electric car charging stations. The issue though is that there is no uniform paying experience and also you don't know what kind of charging speed you will get. I have been looking at the new Hyundai Kona Electric and the Kia niro EV which are both competitively priced.... But you don't have the super charger network which might be a deal breaker.
- mikestew 8y ago
  The issue though is that there is no uniform paying experience I grab the appropriate card of the two (Blink and ChargePoint) in the console, tap it, sorted. But you don't have the super charger network which might be a deal breaker. In seven years of Nissan Leaf ownership, I’d bet i could count the number of times I’ve used a public charger on both hands. Electric’s aren’t like ICE where you’re always looking for a place to fill up. You fill up at home, like civilized people do. Super charger is nice, but I personally wouldn’t factor it in.
  - sbradford26 8y ago
    Oh definitely, the charging at in my garage is a main reason that I would like an EV. My issue is that my family lives in Michigan while I am in upstate NY. So the super charger stations would be super useful for that trip when I don't fly. That definitely is a small amount of my total travels but I only have one car, so it is a consideration. Also it is good to hear that it only takes about two cards for charging. It is something that you think about but can't really test how it would work with your driving until you do it.
    - Symbiote 8y ago
      An irrelevant question: Do drive through Canada, or is it too much hassle? (I live in Europe; within most of the EU a national border is irrelevant to planning a route – there is no check, just a blue sign "Welcome to XYZ". When I visited Quebec, I couldn't drive with the rental car to the USA, so I never saw the border.)
      - mikestew 8y ago
        If your question is not directed specifically at OP, and is "if you live close to the US/Canadian border...", I can answer since OP hasn't. Being a few hours from the border in WA state, we don't think a thing about crossing the border. It takes time (an hour or more, depending), and as a U. S. citizen I find it ironic that coming back is often more hassle than leaving, but we otherwise don't think much about it except for the time needed.
  - joeyramone 8y ago
    I can imagine you never took a long road trip (say 600+ miles) with your Leaf. Then you'll understand the value of a fast charging network like Tesla has.
    - linsomniac 8y ago
      Agreed. I worried after I got my Tesla 2 years ago that it would just be a toy, only usable for short range trips. But 2 weeks after we got it we went on a 2,300 mile each way road trip, and it worked great. I was sold on the super charger turning the car into a truly useful thing instead of just a toy. And the new ~3.5x faster chargers are going to make it a gas-like experience.
derekp7 8y ago
Couldn't the mainstream auto manufactures install chargers at each of their dealers? It seems that for any major car brand, there are more dealerships than there are Tesla chargers.
- QuotedForTruth 8y ago
  Seems like a decent idea, but it wouldnt be free. The dealers are independent businesses. Also have you ever seen a dealership with a bunch of empty parking spaces? The charging stations will be competing with the dealership's storage space for cars.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  Dealerships aren't in the right locations to make long-distance travel work out. You'd have huge holes in the network.
- kbob 8y ago
  Would you enjoy spending several hours of your vacation hanging around auto dealers' showrooms?
  - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
    How is Tesla any different? My road trip to the beach would take 4 hours more in a Tesla than a ICE. That time would be waiting at rest stops along the way...
compcoffee 8y ago
>Don't forget the Supercharger network Part of the VW "Dieselgate" settlement requires VW to invest $2BB in charger infrastructure. Installing chargers is not rocket science, nor a huge advantage.
- cowmix 8y ago
  It is harder than you think and it is a HUGE advantage. I have a non-Tesla EV, trust me, the public charging network is pretty horrible.
mrfusion 8y ago
I think a cool start up idea would be to install fast chargers at peoples homes and they could then offer them up to travelers for a fee. The startup would install the charger and split the fee with the homeowner. Anyone want to work on that with me? Or feel free to critique. It’s sort of like air bnb for car charging.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  Fast chargers need a high voltage electric hookup, which is expensive and often unavailable in residential neighborhoods.
- brianwawok 8y ago
  Capital costs seem rough. You can’t use a normal wall plug for a supercharger. How many amps do they pull, 200? You would need a new breaker box and the super charger hardware.... say 10k per house. Who is going to spend 10k to get a charger in their driveway strangers can stop by and pay you $20 to use? Uber works because people already own the car. Even EV people don’t already own a supercharger, they have a much simpler one.
octorian 8y ago
> Don't forget the Supercharger network For some reason, the majority of the "competition" does forget the supercharger network. Its the reason Tesla is a road-trip car, and capable of being your primary/only vehicle. Meanwhile all other EVs are nothing more than commuter cars. Maybe suitable for day-trips if you're really lucky. Tesla also acknowledges that you need these high-speed charging stations conveniently located along the highway. Not in the middle of town, and certainly not in the parking lot of a store you'd never spend more than 10 minutes at.

lykr0n 8y ago

I don't think so either, but the hoops the big auto companies need to jump through are a lot lower. Once they have the design, they have the supply chains, assembly lines, and logics networks in place to go from 0 to 100 in months not years like Tesla. Batteries are going to be an issue

bpicolo 8y ago

Not to mention that the battery business is a huge deal on it's own - potentially as big as car business https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-australias-tesla-battery-on-track-to-make-back-a-third-of-cost-in-a-year https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-aus...

MrEfficiency 8y ago

> But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity. This is ignorant and downplays the companies that have existed for decades. Tesla isnt profitable, the rest of the auto companies are profitable. These auto companies have already developed electric vehicles(see Bolt and Leaf) but demand doesnt cause them to produce Tesla amounts of electric vehicles. If they saw an increase in demand, they will use their billion dollar infrastructure to continue to produce vehicles. To think there is any 'struggling to keep up' with Tesla for automotive is an ignorance of the automotive industry. Tesla is trying to survive, the established players are developing their own new technology.

lykr0n 8y ago
This. Ford makes 1.6 million cars (worldwide) per quarter. Tesla, while impressive, cannot keep up when someone else enters their market segment. If tomorrow Ford/Chevy/Toyota announces a model 3 like car for 2020 release with something close to the 3's specs, Tesla is dead unless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat. Tesla can do what- 350k to 400k cars a year based on current numbers? The big players can do that in weeks. I think there is some merit to the point about batteries- Tesla has a supply chain in place for that while everyone else is going to be fighting on the open market (as far as I know).
- kemiller 8y ago
  The battery is not an afterthought. The big players do not have an answer to the gigafactory at this point. They can build all the cars they want but without batteries they won’t be electric.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- dmode 8y ago
  This is almost sounds eerily like "Blackberry will release a phone that will kill Apple". If it were that easy to just crank out an EV, all manufacturers had a 2 year window to release one and capture the Model 3 backlog. But nobody has released a compelling product. As it is not about just manufacturing a product. It is about manufacturing an EV that is competitive with Tesla's software prowess, monthly over the air updates, massive super charger network, battery capabilities, cooling tech, a no dealership model, and brand signalling. Beyond that, big cos just don't venture into a new market. A electric BMW 3 will actually cannibalize their own 3 series first. Can they actually sell a higher margin electric 3 series ? Otherwise investors will punish BMW. Will their dealership network accept selling a lower margin product ? A product that requires fewer service visit ? There are a TON of considerations on why Big Cos are caught flat footed by disrupters. Look at SAP and how it missed the Cloud movement as Salesforce ate their cake. Google and Yahoo, Walmart and Amazon, and many more