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- accelerating China factory due to tariffs of about 40% into China, they don't indicate what accelerating actually means Numbers: - Q3 production 53,239, -

- accelerating China factory due to tariffs of about 40% into China, they don't indicate what accelerating actually means Numbers: - Q3 production 53,239, - Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457 - North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric - pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing - GM sales are expected to fall 14%, after falling 13% in August. - Analyst estimates for Ford (-9%), Toyota (-6.5%), Honda (-4.1%)

threeseed 8y ago
Pretty disingenuous posting other car companies. Their performance has nothing to do with Tesla what so ever and everything to do with the trend in the market towards SUVs and crossovers which Ford, GM etc are highly exposed to. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-sedans-u-s-car-sales-seen-falling-to-recession-levels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-s...
- rconti 8y ago
  It seems fair to compare an automaker to another automaker. Declining sales among your competitors is a strong indicator of a difficult environment to sell into. Unless you're saying the cited sales are sedans only, in which case I get your point.
  - bischofs 8y ago
    Not really fair, I can walk into a dealer and buy any car from one of those other brands. The Tesla numbers are 1-2 years of built up demand being built/delivered in one quarter. These numbers will definitely not continue.
    - codeulike 8y ago
      Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe.
      - ummonk 8y ago
        At 83,500 vehicles in a quarter, that does come out to 1-2 years.
        hwillis 8y ago
        That's a totally different statement though. Model 3s are also only 53,000 of that, although that's still just under 2 years. But really, the number of deposits doesn't have much of anything to do with the actual demand. The number of cancellations and new deposits also makes it really hard to estimate what it actually is. The bottom line though is that any reasonable observer will expect the Model 3 to keep a sustained demand at its price point. People really do like them despite what critics say.
      - compcoffee 8y ago
        >Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe. Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops. Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
        T-A 8y ago
        https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-re...
        hwillis 8y ago
        They report the amount of deposits quarterly, ya goober: > Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q1 to $942 million. This does not reflect the incremental deposits we received once we opened the Model 3 configurator for orders in early Q3 2018. Deposits impact the P&L only once the vehicle gets delivered to a customer.[1] $.94 billion in deposits, where deposits are $1000 for a model 3, $20,000 for a Semi, and $250,000 for a roadster. It's also up by $90 million from two quarters before. No matter how you slice it they have a crazy number of deposits. Musk also does bring it up fairly often, certainly every earnings call that I remember. [1]: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712 http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ec...
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - devwastaken 8y ago
      >Not really fair, I can walk into a dealer and buy any car from one of those other brands. That's like saying Amazon won't continue because I can walk to Walmart. If the numbers won't continue give specific facts relating to the market of teslas vehicles. Unless the vehicles become failures themselves, a better alternative is made, or tesla suddenly bottoms up, 400,000 new vehicles isn't too bad.
    - rconti 8y ago
      You're not replying to the substance of my reply. I was saying that analyzing Tesla's sales in comparison to other automakers' declining sales is perfectly fair. You're right to point out that Tesla has years of pent up sales, but it is still true that, whatever their sales are, they are more impressive in a market where other automakers are declining than they would be in a market of overall double-digit auto sales growth.
wintercharm 8y ago
Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble. Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group. The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE (Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants electric drivetrains (VW, others)
- jackhack 8y ago
  And just for completeness, Porsche "only" sold 55,000 cars in 2017. Tesla shipped 30%+ more automobiles in one quarter, yet there is debate about whether Tesla is a viable company and no-one is predicting the imminent demise of that tiny car company, Porsche. Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.
  - neuronic 8y ago
    Did you just compare a subsidiary of Volkswagen to some singular Silicon Valley startup in terms of production capability, available resources, expertise and infrastructure? Also, define Porsche: "Porsche AG is headquartered in Stuttgart, and is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche I'm a bit skeptical whether Tesla will survive a behemoth like Volkswagen shifting gear towards main focus on electric vehicles.
    - SEJeff 8y ago
      Tesla has a head start on serious automotive EV technology, and as a result, has: https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc No matter what happens, anyone wanting to build serious EVs will at some point be licensing patents, especially the stuff they do which really is cutting edge around their battery packs.
Latteland 8y ago
If you closer into the sales numbers (look at electrek's article about the last quarter [0]), they appear to be reducing mid-priced sedan sales at most of the other leading companies, especially the generally excellent euro manus (bmw, audi, etc). also see [1] 0: https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-all-premium-sedans-combined-us-july/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-... 1: https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mid-size-premium-sedan-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mi...

threeseed 8y ago

Pretty disingenuous posting other car companies. Their performance has nothing to do with Tesla what so ever and everything to do with the trend in the market towards SUVs and crossovers which Ford, GM etc are highly exposed to. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-sedans-u-s-car-sales-seen-falling-to-recession-levels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-s...

rconti 8y ago
It seems fair to compare an automaker to another automaker. Declining sales among your competitors is a strong indicator of a difficult environment to sell into. Unless you're saying the cited sales are sedans only, in which case I get your point.
- bischofs 8y ago
  Not really fair, I can walk into a dealer and buy any car from one of those other brands. The Tesla numbers are 1-2 years of built up demand being built/delivered in one quarter. These numbers will definitely not continue.
  - codeulike 8y ago
    Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe.
    - ummonk 8y ago
      At 83,500 vehicles in a quarter, that does come out to 1-2 years.
      - hwillis 8y ago
        That's a totally different statement though. Model 3s are also only 53,000 of that, although that's still just under 2 years. But really, the number of deposits doesn't have much of anything to do with the actual demand. The number of cancellations and new deposits also makes it really hard to estimate what it actually is. The bottom line though is that any reasonable observer will expect the Model 3 to keep a sustained demand at its price point. People really do like them despite what critics say.
    - compcoffee 8y ago
      >Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe. Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops. Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
      - T-A 8y ago
        https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-re...
      - hwillis 8y ago
        They report the amount of deposits quarterly, ya goober: > Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q1 to $942 million. This does not reflect the incremental deposits we received once we opened the Model 3 configurator for orders in early Q3 2018. Deposits impact the P&L only once the vehicle gets delivered to a customer.[1] $.94 billion in deposits, where deposits are $1000 for a model 3, $20,000 for a Semi, and $250,000 for a roadster. It's also up by $90 million from two quarters before. No matter how you slice it they have a crazy number of deposits. Musk also does bring it up fairly often, certainly every earnings call that I remember. [1]: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712 http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ec...
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - devwastaken 8y ago
    >Not really fair, I can walk into a dealer and buy any car from one of those other brands. That's like saying Amazon won't continue because I can walk to Walmart. If the numbers won't continue give specific facts relating to the market of teslas vehicles. Unless the vehicles become failures themselves, a better alternative is made, or tesla suddenly bottoms up, 400,000 new vehicles isn't too bad.
  - rconti 8y ago
    You're not replying to the substance of my reply. I was saying that analyzing Tesla's sales in comparison to other automakers' declining sales is perfectly fair. You're right to point out that Tesla has years of pent up sales, but it is still true that, whatever their sales are, they are more impressive in a market where other automakers are declining than they would be in a market of overall double-digit auto sales growth.

wintercharm 8y ago

Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble. Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group. The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE (Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants electric drivetrains (VW, others)

jackhack 8y ago
And just for completeness, Porsche "only" sold 55,000 cars in 2017. Tesla shipped 30%+ more automobiles in one quarter, yet there is debate about whether Tesla is a viable company and no-one is predicting the imminent demise of that tiny car company, Porsche. Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.
- neuronic 8y ago
  Did you just compare a subsidiary of Volkswagen to some singular Silicon Valley startup in terms of production capability, available resources, expertise and infrastructure? Also, define Porsche: "Porsche AG is headquartered in Stuttgart, and is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche I'm a bit skeptical whether Tesla will survive a behemoth like Volkswagen shifting gear towards main focus on electric vehicles.
  - SEJeff 8y ago
    Tesla has a head start on serious automotive EV technology, and as a result, has: https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc No matter what happens, anyone wanting to build serious EVs will at some point be licensing patents, especially the stuff they do which really is cutting edge around their battery packs.

Latteland 8y ago

If you closer into the sales numbers (look at electrek's article about the last quarter [0]), they appear to be reducing mid-priced sedan sales at most of the other leading companies, especially the generally excellent euro manus (bmw, audi, etc). also see [1] 0: https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-all-premium-sedans-combined-us-july/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-... 1: https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mid-size-premium-sedan-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mi...