I had trouble with that too and I think I understand what the writer means (but I could still be wrong). I will give it my best shot: At first I could imagine

I had trouble with that too and I think I understand what the writer means (but I could still be wrong). I will give it my best shot: At first I could imagine saying and truly meaning "It is raining, but I don't believe it is raining". But then I realized that statement would only be true if I was referring to a past tense version of me (say I was in a car so didn't see the rain), and meant it as "It was raining, but I didn't believe it was raining (but now I know)". Or maybe with that statement I'm taking a step back and really commenting on my own perception "It is raining, but I (not the true I who knows "It is raining", but the sloppier version that perceived things wrong at first) don't believe it's raining. It's like the statement only makes sense with the implicit assumption that the "I" in the second part is referring not to the "True" I that knows it is raining, but the fallible one. The very act of saying "It is raining" really means "I believe it is raining", so you can't truly say "I believe it is raining, but I don't believe it is raining." Maybe someone smarter will chime in, this hurts my head. Thank you poster for the link. I'm going to sleep.