It's pretty hard to definitively succeed. The threat is not just the HEVC companies that aren't in AOMedia; unknown unknowns are a factor too. Like submarine p

It's pretty hard to definitively succeed. The threat is not just the HEVC companies that aren't in AOMedia; unknown unknowns are a factor too. Like submarine patents: patent applicants can intentionally delay the issuance/publication (keep amending their application for example), and because the initial filing date is all that matters, they still get to use that patent to go after others. And the whole situation is complicated enough that I wouldn't be shocked if there are published patents where legal review decided it wasn't a threat (that it doesn't apply to AV1) but someone sues anyway, or review simply didn't consider the key patent/claim at all. Some things AV1 has going for it: - Some techniques are already in use out there (like in VP9), are patented by AOMedia members, or are essentially just bumping some numbers to take advantage of stronger hardware (prediction directions, reference frames you can use). So those parts seem less likely to see patent claims, either because they may not be patentable or because we'd've seen it in someone suing over VP9 or such. - There is a legal defense fund. And, more informally, there are large companies to which it's worth a lot to keep the codec as unencumbered as possible. - AOMedia members are allowed to use their patents against entities filing patent suits, which might discourage cos. that actually have products (as opposed to pure patent holding companies) from suing, or strengthen the AOMedia member's position in negotiating for a settlement etc. (I wonder whether this part is structured to also allow retaliation when a company e.g. sells their patents to hostile pools or holding companies.) I'm sure there will be threats and suits (the system just seems to make it inevitable someone will try to profit off this) and it might be someone in one of the HEVC pools doing it in hopes they can help HEVC win. But seems possible AOMedia could win or settle any essential ones (things core to the codec rather than just specific implementation techniques). If the whole thing failed catastrophically--a lawsuit covering all approaches to implementing some essential codec feature succeeded--AV1 would still likely end up much less expensive and encumbered than HEVC, which of course didn't even try to avoid patents. I also wonder if AOMedia might get to work on a workaround (like, define a codec or profile that's more or less AV1 with the specific feature from the lawsuit disabled, removed or replaced). That could obviously be hugely expensive depending on things like compatibility with existing HW/SW, but could still work out cheaper than royalties or whatever.