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I wonder if a discussion around Spanish Flu should also include the 1956-58 Asian Flu as well as the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu? Would the much more open travel of

I wonder if a discussion around Spanish Flu should also include the 1956-58 Asian Flu as well as the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu? Would the much more open travel of today, compared to the far more closed international travel of yesterday have had a significant impact on virality and mortality of those two more recent pandemics? I’ve sat in on a meeting in the post Tamiflu/bird flu scare environment that provided a macro view of the challenges facing a small country like New Zealand. My thoughts are that a financial hedge against a pandemic might include: Going “long” tele-presence such as Zoom, Skype, etc as well as streaming entertainment. Going “short” passenger airlines, lifestyle retail, and shopping mall REITs. As far as global/macro risks go, pandemic is top of mind for me. I perceive pandemic as a lower risk and likelihood than another global financial shock. But I view them both as ultimately inevitable. It’s just a question of severity for both. But Imthinkmthe difference is that another GFC would not precipitate a pandemic. But a pandemic could precipitate a GFC.

cm2187 8y ago
One problem will be the media crying wolf every year, anytime there is a minor disease spreading. Bird flu, swine flu, ebola, mad cow disease, etc. All of which have a tiny death toll, dwarfed by even the common flu. But every time we are told this is the end of the world, everyone should be scared. As a result I think people progressively ignore these warnings.
ekianjo 8y ago
> But a pandemic could precipitate a GFC. I dont see why. Some industries would suffer, but others would prosper. It would not be a whole-encompassing GFC like when the banks derail.
- PeterisP 8y ago
  A pandemic with casualty rates comparable to the Spanish Flu would mean a rapid worldwide GDP drop comparable to a GFC simply because even if the GDP-per-capita would stay the same, there would be less people, so a drop in both production and demand. It would also mean an immediate jump in household default rates as a noticeable portion of families lose their main earners. Both of these factors are likely to cause banks to derail as well.

cm2187 8y ago

One problem will be the media crying wolf every year, anytime there is a minor disease spreading. Bird flu, swine flu, ebola, mad cow disease, etc. All of which have a tiny death toll, dwarfed by even the common flu. But every time we are told this is the end of the world, everyone should be scared. As a result I think people progressively ignore these warnings.

ekianjo 8y ago

> But a pandemic could precipitate a GFC. I dont see why. Some industries would suffer, but others would prosper. It would not be a whole-encompassing GFC like when the banks derail.

PeterisP 8y ago
A pandemic with casualty rates comparable to the Spanish Flu would mean a rapid worldwide GDP drop comparable to a GFC simply because even if the GDP-per-capita would stay the same, there would be less people, so a drop in both production and demand. It would also mean an immediate jump in household default rates as a noticeable portion of families lose their main earners. Both of these factors are likely to cause banks to derail as well.