Critical Path Method + Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Figure out the shortest path to the goal (critical path) then figure out the most likely

Critical Path Method + Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Figure out the shortest path to the goal (critical path) then figure out the most likely timeline, by applying a probability distribution to the weights of each connection. This highlights the truth that reducing variance is a huge factor in improving the quality of forecasts.