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That's clearly not entirely true though, because there are hits. They're just extremely rare, but extremely visible. You can read interviews with the Stardew Va
by stupidcar 8y ago
That's clearly not entirely true though, because there are hits. They're just extremely rare, but extremely visible. You can read interviews with the Stardew Valley guy all over where he talks about spending 4 years working solo on his game, refusing to give up on realising his artistic vision. Then he releases and it's a mega-hit. That's a very seductive story.
This isn't a problem unique to indie games. Every creative field has an overabundance of hopefuls, all chasing a tiny chance of turning it into a success. The problem, as Daniel Clowes observed back in 1991[1] is that everyone thinks that they'll be one of the lucky ones.
[1] https://artinfiction.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/asc-3.jpg https://artinfiction.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/asc-3.jpg
- solipsism 8y agoYou may have missed the nuance in the comment you're replying to. Everyone knows that it's possible to win the lottery. But the best advice you can give is to tell people they're never going to win the lottery. People who are super passionate about making indie games I'm going to do it regardless, so this is good advice.
- stupidcar 8y ago"Best advice" why? Accurate, perhaps. But do you really find going around telling people that they're not going to win the lottery makes them stop playing? Even after they read an article about someone who won $100m and has quit their job to sail around the world? I think such advice misunderstands the psychology of why people gamble on very long odds. The primary drive is emotional, not rational. The rational brain only has to be convinced that a theoretical possibility exists. After that, it's a matter of emotional appeal, and culture is very good at presenting seductive narratives based on rare occurrences.
- solipsism 8y agoBut do you really find going around telling people that they're not going to win the lottery makes them stop playing?" Not 100% successfully, but of course it helps. Why don't you go around and ask some people why they don't play the lottery? I think such advice misunderstands the psychology of why people gamble on very long odds. It's why I don't gamble. It's why lots of people don't gamble. People aren't completely rational, but they're not completely irrational either. Helping people put understand the true odds of what they're engaged in is a good thing. What do you have against people knowing the facts?
- Nition 8y agoI don't think Stupidcar was disagreeing, I think their point was just that you can tell people a million times that the chance of it working out for them is 1 in a million, and they'll still be out there trying to be that 0.0001%. Of course I agree that if they can do it because it's something they really want to create, and not worry about whether it makes money, then they'll be much better mentally (and financially!) prepared.
- wernercd 8y agoI play lottery occasionally for the entertainment... not because I'll win. Likewise, if you are going to put your heart into something like this... do it because you want to... if you win? great. but it'll be the exception to the rule.
- ckarmann 8y agoAn actual lottery is usually low-effort: you buy a ticket, scratch something or pick numbers, that's all. So even though you'll probably never win, you don't lose much. Working thousands of hours is not like that. The equivalent of lottery with video games would be spamming app markets with shitty games made in a week-end, hoping it catches up somehow. One day someone will make another Flappy Bird, but it will probably not be you.
- ivm 8y agoThere is a problem unique to games if you view them as software: a very narrow window of promotion. You can gradually improve overall visibility of a regular software by working on SEO and sales. But if a game wasn't picked by the press or at least some YouTube celebrity – it's over. This is even worse for mobile games where a few store curators decide your fate.
- BoysenberryPi 8y agoSomething I've noticed among indie devs is that they not only are terrible at marketing but they have this weird mindset about marketing that if they just make the best game possible then word of mouth will sell their game for them and they don't need to put more than the bare minimum into marketing. For some, reality sets in after release and they realize marketing matters. For others, they blame external forces and keep plodding down the same path.
- evrydayhustling 8y agoAnother good take on the phenomenon is (the insufferable) Taleb's discussion of "Black Swan" professions. History (from culture to natural disasters) gets defined by exceptional cases, but your own life in these professions will probably get defined by the typical case. Unfortunately, the industry is set up to stoke and profit handsomely from people mis-assessing their own chances. The people I've known (actors and writers, mostly) who deal with this most healthily get a lot from their craft other than either outward success or personal fulfillment. There's also a community around their craft that gives them companionship, love, visibility to day jobs etc. Does that exist in the same way or indy devs? It seems like the solitary aspects of coding would work against.
- FabHK 8y agoI think a more insightful analysis than (the insufferable) Taleb's one is the "Winner takes it all" one: > In our 1995 book, The Winner-Take-All Society, Philip Cook and I [=Herbert Frank] argued that top salaries have been growing sharply in virtually every labor market because of two factors – technological forces that greatly amplify small increments in performance and increased competition for the services of top performers. That might combine with the "saliency" cognitive bias - it's easier to think of successful actors, writers, game authors, than of unsuccessful ones. http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/12/how_technology_and_winner_take_all_markets_have_made_income_inequality_so_much_worse_.html http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/12/how_...
- tokyodude 8y ago> the industry is set up to stoke and profit handsomely from people mis-assessing their own chances. how so? how does the industry profit from people mis-assessing their own chances?
- evrydayhustling 8y agoHere are some things you can sell to indy devs while they are working: dev tools, hardware, books or online media w/ ads, conferences, certificate programs focused on game dev, marketing opportunities. Then, when they are done, you get to skim big chunks of their revenue with app store, payment processing, etc. Don't forget to sell additional advertisements, to other game devs, on top of the places where you list their games! All of the profit streams above scale with the number of devs and the total size of their market - not with the success of the average/median dev.
- hacker_9 8y agoYeah and many other indies worked for 4+ years and got about 10 downloads on release, and you never hear of them.
- raverbashing 8y agoWell even though it looks like, creative fields are not split only between the top hits and the starving hopefuls. You might not be the next star musician, but even big artists need session players, there's teaching, arranging, etc Artists and writers can find some work in commercial endeavours. It might not be a big market but it exists.
- bordercases 8y agoIf it's Pareto-distributed market winning then a lot of the same logic as to why you should do a startup – either do it because it needs to be done, or do it because you want to do it AND can endure all of the hardships, possibly because of how much you want it – should apply. Not everyone can or should do startups.
- tomrod 8y agoWasn't Stardew Valley basically built from the earlier game Starbound?