11 ms·

Many of these arguments strike me as particularly weak, none more so than slide 36, where he claims that China's urbanisation rate is being understated because

by quant18 16y ago

Many of these arguments strike me as particularly weak, none more so than slide 36, where he claims that China's urbanisation rate is being understated because they have a much higher population density threshold for what qualifies as a "city". He seems unaware that average farm size in China is absolutely tiny compared to America --- I've seen figures as low as 0.04 hectares (400 m2!) for Guangdong [1], which is how the province as a whole manages to achieve an Israeli-level population density of 486 persons/km2. For the whole of China, something like 0.2 hectares seems more reasonable. But even then, if you take the definition he suggests for a "city" (400 persons/km2), every single farming village in China would qualify. That's why China has a much higher population density threshold for defining urban counties. [1] e.g. http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n1_4.pdf http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n1... http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/agsaaea05/19565.htm http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/agsaaea05/19565.htm

ximeng 16y ago
This is the same guy making the same arguments as he's made on several occasions. See here - the same mall example, same ghost city example, same starbucks example. He's like a stuck record. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1199422 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1199422
- roel_v 16y ago
  Well here's a respectable (Western) (I don't imply that 'Western' mean 'respectable', just giving details) professor at Tsinghua, who regularly appears on CCTV on economic issues, who's been making the same claims for a while now, albeit in less dramatic terms: http://chovanec.wordpress.com/ http://chovanec.wordpress.com/ ..
roel_v 16y ago
Ok, but is your point that the claim that significant urbanization will take place over the next decade and will boost internal consumption and therefore the Chinese economy is true? Because that's what this guy is saying, that we shouldn't expect too much from that. From my observation (with all caveats that apply to this), it seems that in the short run people are moving back out of urban areas, taking up the village life, lowering consumption. Maybe this is temporary, I don't know. I'm quite skeptic of counting on significant further urbanization as a major driver of economic growth, though.

by quant18 16y ago

ximeng 16y ago

This is the same guy making the same arguments as he's made on several occasions. See here - the same mall example, same ghost city example, same starbucks example. He's like a stuck record. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1199422 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1199422

roel_v 16y ago
Well here's a respectable (Western) (I don't imply that 'Western' mean 'respectable', just giving details) professor at Tsinghua, who regularly appears on CCTV on economic issues, who's been making the same claims for a while now, albeit in less dramatic terms: http://chovanec.wordpress.com/ http://chovanec.wordpress.com/ ..

roel_v 16y ago

Ok, but is your point that the claim that significant urbanization will take place over the next decade and will boost internal consumption and therefore the Chinese economy is true? Because that's what this guy is saying, that we shouldn't expect too much from that. From my observation (with all caveats that apply to this), it seems that in the short run people are moving back out of urban areas, taking up the village life, lowering consumption. Maybe this is temporary, I don't know. I'm quite skeptic of counting on significant further urbanization as a major driver of economic growth, though.