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The article doesn't actually say 50k over 10 quarters. It projects a 60% annual increase each year until 2023 (or 17 quarters). So this is a much higher number

The article doesn't actually say 50k over 10 quarters. It projects a 60% annual increase each year until 2023 (or 17 quarters). So this is a much higher number that 500k. There are 1 billion cars on the road. 80m are sold annually. So 500k is literally a drop in the bucket.. you can't get a 2% decrease in oil by selling 500k in 17 quarters, 10 quarters.. or even 4 quarters. To get to 2% of cars, you would need to sell about 500k every quarter.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
"Cumulative passenger EV sales are set to hit 4 million this week. This includes battery electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. If we include e-buses, the 4 million milestone was reached at the beginning of July. The time needed to reach each consecutive million EVs sold has shrunk from 17 months for the second million to 6 months for the fourth million. The next million EVs will take just over 6 months. We expect the five-millionth EV to be sold in March 2019." I won't quote the entire article here, but it's worth a few minutes of time. The EV sales rate is climbing rapidly; not exponentially, but much faster than linearly. https://about.bnef.com/blog/cumulative-global-ev-sales-hit-4-million/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/cumulative-global-ev-sales-hit-4...
- rgbrenner 8y ago
  That's great... but the thread I'm replying to starts by claiming Tesla can make a 2% impact by selling 50k cars for 10 quarters (absolutely false). And the target is not 500k cars over 10 quarters.. it must be an order of magnitude higher than that to make the claimed impact. Even the article doesn't project the industry (not just Tesla) will reach these numbers in 10 quarters. Close to double that.