5 ms·

As a point of comparison, the big car companies make close to 200,000 cars a week.

by empath75 8y ago

maratd 8y ago
Tesla is a luxury car manufacturer and isn't competing with GM/Ford/etc.
- rootusrootus 8y ago
  Nothing Tesla makes is a luxury car. And to be honest, it's a stretch, even with the Model S, to call them premium cars (like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, etc). And the Model 3 is an economy car. They just happen to be pretty expensive due to the technology. If anything, Tesla shouldn't have too much trouble beating the Fords, GMs, and Toyotas of the world in production -- they're just putting together batteries and electric motors, which is a good bit simpler than engineering an entire ICE drivetrain and getting it out the door successfully.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    Why make you own definition of the term ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle > Model S is listed there, is that a coincidence? The S and X are clearly in the luxury segment. Some people pay a very high premium for the pleasure to drive a quick electric luxury sedan. Which is completely unnecessary for their needs. All the owners I know are clearly in the luxury segment (coming from luxury ICEs). What you find desirable isn't everyone's pleasure. Maybe Tesla is just reinventing/killing the luxury segment, but that's another debate.
    - rootusrootus 8y ago
      Ha, just because Wikipedia says so doesn't make it true. People have been trying to call BMWs and such 'luxury cars' for a long time. BMW themselves wouldn't say that. They're premium cars. Luxury cars are things like Bentleys. What you're noticing is that everyone who can't afford a Bentley or Rolls-Royce would prefer to call their Audi a luxury car ;-).
    - tsomctl 8y ago
      This is a luxury vehicle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsMViWFPv_U&feature=youtu.be&t=130 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsMViWFPv_U&feature=youtu.be... Or this: https://youtu.be/yq9IvgfLFgk?t=360 https://youtu.be/yq9IvgfLFgk?t=360
      - Retric 8y ago
        Those are Ultra-luxury/super luxury cars. The (Honda / Acura) or (Volkswagen / Audi) splits covers normal vs luxury brands by the same company. So a new luxury car segment starts around 35k even if you can pay more than that for a Honda Accord you still go to the Honda dealerships etc.
babypuncher 8y ago
How many cars does Lincoln make in a week?
SEJeff 8y ago
As a point of comparison, the last US car company to be founded was Ford, in 1903. They all literally have a > 100 year head start in factories and whatnot. Edit: GM in 1908 is the actual correct answer.
- Alupis 8y ago
  > They all literally have a > 100 year head start in factories and whatnot Which really begs the question - why did Tesla scoff at outside help from the big car companies? They've figured things out already...
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - SEJeff 8y ago
    For ICE vehicles perhaps, not for EVs, or we'd see more than a token manufacturing capacity from them. How many times did they manufacture 200k Volts or i3 EVs? Where is their serious battery production? Anything even 1/2 as big as the current gigafactory (which is about 30% finished and is still the aggregate battery capacity of almost every battery factory in the world in 2016).
    - Alupis 8y ago
      Tesla's manufacturing woes are not with assembly of the EV components... it's with the build quality, speed and precision of assembling everything else, plus worker safety and required on-clock hours. This has been discussed here many times. It reminds me of Chipotle famously scoffing at McDonald's attempt to teach supply chain management and more... and then Chipotle routinely having shortages of food items, quality and consistency issues, or suffering from nation-wide food-safety outbreaks. Turns out they could have leaned a thing or two...
      - SEJeff 8y ago
        That's fair, but I'm still a bit skeptical as most other manufacturers outsource the overwhelming majority of things where Tesla does things in-house. I mean they had to create their own Seat for the Model X as they wanted them to take an amount of force no "off the shelf" seat could. As a result, the traditional "scale up by buying more" model simply doesn't work quite as well. That said, Tesla could learn TONS from the rest of the industry, but that is why guys like Deepak Ahuja are executives there, their experience.
dragontamer 8y ago
Well, Tesla isn't a big car company. Its a growing car company. But that's what makes these misses so important. Elon Musk originally promised exponential growth with 20,000 cars a month by Dec 2017. But that's a miss. He pushed it to 5000/week by Q3 2018, and now it seems like that's a miss as well. So Tesla, as a growing company, is nearly a year late on its rampup plans. As such, it may not have enough profits to pay down its first major $1-billionish loan due March 2019. --------- That's what people need to be watching: how does Tesla plan to pay off $1 Billion loan (its also a convertible bond, so if the Stock Market raises the price of Tesla to $360, they can give stock instead of paying off the loan.) THAT's why it was important to get 5000/week by December 2017 as Elon Musk originally tweeted: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 The runway has run-out. Elon Musk needs to raise capital to pay off the 2019 Billion $$ loan now.
- dmode 8y ago
  Let's admit it. You would never be happy regardless of what Tesla does. Goalposts will always move. Tesla sold only 100 cars in 2011. It is nothing short of a miracle that they are on track to produce and sell >200k cars in 7 years time. A miss here and there are irrelevant. As for capital raise. Who cares, there is unlimited capital in this world courtesy of Middle East sovereign funds. There is a story in HN front page about a Chinese startup without any revenue raising $1.5bn. It is time for Tesla skeptics to admit that they were wrong and recognize the sheer audacity of Tesla's achievements. It is time to admit defeat.
  - dragontamer 8y ago
    I've outlined what would please me personally in another post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18096082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18096082 In short, I'm not impressed by gross profits (Revenue - COGS), but I agree with the Tesla Bulls that operating-profits (Revenue - COGS - SG&A - CapEx - R&D) is too strict. My definition of Tesla sustainability is (Revenue - COGS - SG&A). EDIT: Seems like this value is called "Operating Income". That is explicitly what would please me. SG&A (Sales, General, and Administrative) costs MUST be accounted for because Tesla decided to avoid dealerships. So all sales staff employed by Tesla need to be accounted, if you are planning to build a sustainable company at a sustainable price. > It is time for Tesla skeptics to admit that they were wrong and recognize the sheer audacity of Tesla's achievements. It is time to admit defeat. As soon as Tesla reaches positive "Operating Income" (Revenue - COGS - SG&A) for more than one quarter, I'll gladly admit that I was wrong. Sound fair?
mikeash 8y ago
From what I can see, only two manufacturers are close to or at that number: Toyota and Volkswagen.

As a point of comparison, the big car companies make close to 200,000 cars a week.

maratd 8y ago

Tesla is a luxury car manufacturer and isn't competing with GM/Ford/etc.

rootusrootus 8y ago
Nothing Tesla makes is a luxury car. And to be honest, it's a stretch, even with the Model S, to call them premium cars (like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, etc). And the Model 3 is an economy car. They just happen to be pretty expensive due to the technology. If anything, Tesla shouldn't have too much trouble beating the Fords, GMs, and Toyotas of the world in production -- they're just putting together batteries and electric motors, which is a good bit simpler than engineering an entire ICE drivetrain and getting it out the door successfully.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Why make you own definition of the term ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle > Model S is listed there, is that a coincidence? The S and X are clearly in the luxury segment. Some people pay a very high premium for the pleasure to drive a quick electric luxury sedan. Which is completely unnecessary for their needs. All the owners I know are clearly in the luxury segment (coming from luxury ICEs). What you find desirable isn't everyone's pleasure. Maybe Tesla is just reinventing/killing the luxury segment, but that's another debate.
  - rootusrootus 8y ago
    Ha, just because Wikipedia says so doesn't make it true. People have been trying to call BMWs and such 'luxury cars' for a long time. BMW themselves wouldn't say that. They're premium cars. Luxury cars are things like Bentleys. What you're noticing is that everyone who can't afford a Bentley or Rolls-Royce would prefer to call their Audi a luxury car ;-).
  - tsomctl 8y ago
    This is a luxury vehicle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsMViWFPv_U&feature=youtu.be&t=130 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsMViWFPv_U&feature=youtu.be... Or this: https://youtu.be/yq9IvgfLFgk?t=360 https://youtu.be/yq9IvgfLFgk?t=360
    - Retric 8y ago
      Those are Ultra-luxury/super luxury cars. The (Honda / Acura) or (Volkswagen / Audi) splits covers normal vs luxury brands by the same company. So a new luxury car segment starts around 35k even if you can pay more than that for a Honda Accord you still go to the Honda dealerships etc.

babypuncher 8y ago

How many cars does Lincoln make in a week?

SEJeff 8y ago

As a point of comparison, the last US car company to be founded was Ford, in 1903. They all literally have a > 100 year head start in factories and whatnot. Edit: GM in 1908 is the actual correct answer.

Alupis 8y ago
> They all literally have a > 100 year head start in factories and whatnot Which really begs the question - why did Tesla scoff at outside help from the big car companies? They've figured things out already...
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- SEJeff 8y ago
  For ICE vehicles perhaps, not for EVs, or we'd see more than a token manufacturing capacity from them. How many times did they manufacture 200k Volts or i3 EVs? Where is their serious battery production? Anything even 1/2 as big as the current gigafactory (which is about 30% finished and is still the aggregate battery capacity of almost every battery factory in the world in 2016).
  - Alupis 8y ago
    Tesla's manufacturing woes are not with assembly of the EV components... it's with the build quality, speed and precision of assembling everything else, plus worker safety and required on-clock hours. This has been discussed here many times. It reminds me of Chipotle famously scoffing at McDonald's attempt to teach supply chain management and more... and then Chipotle routinely having shortages of food items, quality and consistency issues, or suffering from nation-wide food-safety outbreaks. Turns out they could have leaned a thing or two...
    - SEJeff 8y ago
      That's fair, but I'm still a bit skeptical as most other manufacturers outsource the overwhelming majority of things where Tesla does things in-house. I mean they had to create their own Seat for the Model X as they wanted them to take an amount of force no "off the shelf" seat could. As a result, the traditional "scale up by buying more" model simply doesn't work quite as well. That said, Tesla could learn TONS from the rest of the industry, but that is why guys like Deepak Ahuja are executives there, their experience.

dragontamer 8y ago

Well, Tesla isn't a big car company. Its a growing car company. But that's what makes these misses so important. Elon Musk originally promised exponential growth with 20,000 cars a month by Dec 2017. But that's a miss. He pushed it to 5000/week by Q3 2018, and now it seems like that's a miss as well. So Tesla, as a growing company, is nearly a year late on its rampup plans. As such, it may not have enough profits to pay down its first major $1-billionish loan due March 2019. --------- That's what people need to be watching: how does Tesla plan to pay off $1 Billion loan (its also a convertible bond, so if the Stock Market raises the price of Tesla to $360, they can give stock instead of paying off the loan.) THAT's why it was important to get 5000/week by December 2017 as Elon Musk originally tweeted: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 The runway has run-out. Elon Musk needs to raise capital to pay off the 2019 Billion $$ loan now.

dmode 8y ago
Let's admit it. You would never be happy regardless of what Tesla does. Goalposts will always move. Tesla sold only 100 cars in 2011. It is nothing short of a miracle that they are on track to produce and sell >200k cars in 7 years time. A miss here and there are irrelevant. As for capital raise. Who cares, there is unlimited capital in this world courtesy of Middle East sovereign funds. There is a story in HN front page about a Chinese startup without any revenue raising $1.5bn. It is time for Tesla skeptics to admit that they were wrong and recognize the sheer audacity of Tesla's achievements. It is time to admit defeat.
- dragontamer 8y ago
  I've outlined what would please me personally in another post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18096082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18096082 In short, I'm not impressed by gross profits (Revenue - COGS), but I agree with the Tesla Bulls that operating-profits (Revenue - COGS - SG&A - CapEx - R&D) is too strict. My definition of Tesla sustainability is (Revenue - COGS - SG&A). EDIT: Seems like this value is called "Operating Income". That is explicitly what would please me. SG&A (Sales, General, and Administrative) costs MUST be accounted for because Tesla decided to avoid dealerships. So all sales staff employed by Tesla need to be accounted, if you are planning to build a sustainable company at a sustainable price. > It is time for Tesla skeptics to admit that they were wrong and recognize the sheer audacity of Tesla's achievements. It is time to admit defeat. As soon as Tesla reaches positive "Operating Income" (Revenue - COGS - SG&A) for more than one quarter, I'll gladly admit that I was wrong. Sound fair?

mikeash 8y ago

From what I can see, only two manufacturers are close to or at that number: Toyota and Volkswagen.