Almost everyone except you has been surprised so that should give you a clue. The Bayesian probabilities are all relative :). If you did believed 100% then you

Almost everyone except you has been surprised so that should give you a clue. The Bayesian probabilities are all relative :). If you did believed 100% then you should have shorted the hell out of that stock. But you didn't so my guess is that even for you it was more like 90%.