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I think it's inevitable for the integrated iPhone to be displaced by the modular Android (or some nascent modular tech), because integrated devices only provide

by 8ren 16y ago

I think it's inevitable for the integrated iPhone to be displaced by the modular Android (or some nascent modular tech), because integrated devices only provide competitive advantage at certain points of market development - where performance matters more than customization, price etc. The disruption guy (Clayton Christensen) talks about this. To be a leader, Apple's solution has got to be to always be on the leading edge of a wave. Once the iPod is commoditized, the iPhone, then the iPad, and very soon after that, there needs to be something else. Consider: are iPod sales growing as fast as they used to? Apple wisely cannibalizes its own sales, but can only do so while its competitive advantage is needed by the market (viz. performance from integration). This is traditional tech surf-style: intel, TI, HP, Sony and so on. You need a continuous pipeline of new products. (Maybe iTunes is an exception that can last significantly longer, perhaps over many generations.) Steve knows all about this. Perhaps he hopes it's different for consumer products...? but I think the tech elements still dominate, which the example of Sony seems to confirm. BTW I discovered recently that Larry Ellison (whose Oracle is suing Android) calls Steve his "best friend".

glhaynes 16y ago
People have been predicting the commoditization of iPods for nearly as long as there have been iPods, but Apple continues to hold on to consistent market share (it's been around 70% for as long as I can remember) and continues to be able to price iPods competitively and profitably. What's gonna change to make this much-predicted commoditization come true?
- 8ren 16y ago
  I may have used the wrong word with commoditized. Firstly, Apple has done a great job of riding the engineering curve, from the first iPods, down to several versions of the iPod shuffles. During that period, performance was crucial, partly because it enabled a smaller battery, and therefore a smaller and more convenient size overall. It does seem that iPods are now as light and can carry as many songs as anyone could want - that is, there is little room left for improvement that people will pay for (and I believe the last version of the Shuffle - v.3 - didn't sell that well, even though it was tiny). At this point, the iPod market is ripe for commoditization. Since tech advances have made performance factors no longer an issue, there's an opening for the less efficient modular approach to offer other benefits, like cheaper price, more configurable and so on. But there's a problem. iPod sales are down. They are being cannibalized by iPhones and iPads. That is, performance is now so good, that people would rather carry something heavier than an iPod Shuffle in return for more functionality (like movies, phone calls, internet and apps). I haven't checked, but I imagine the current iPhone probably has similar weight & size to the first iPod. In these new categories, performance again becomes a premium: people would love a faster iPhone, that has more memory, that is lighter (where "love" means "would pay for"). To summarize: the iPod digital-music-player category wave didn't last long enough to become commoditized. But note that my key point remains: Apple needs a pipeline of products, where its integrated approach gives a competitive advantage.

by 8ren 16y ago

glhaynes 16y ago

People have been predicting the commoditization of iPods for nearly as long as there have been iPods, but Apple continues to hold on to consistent market share (it's been around 70% for as long as I can remember) and continues to be able to price iPods competitively and profitably. What's gonna change to make this much-predicted commoditization come true?

8ren 16y ago
I may have used the wrong word with commoditized. Firstly, Apple has done a great job of riding the engineering curve, from the first iPods, down to several versions of the iPod shuffles. During that period, performance was crucial, partly because it enabled a smaller battery, and therefore a smaller and more convenient size overall. It does seem that iPods are now as light and can carry as many songs as anyone could want - that is, there is little room left for improvement that people will pay for (and I believe the last version of the Shuffle - v.3 - didn't sell that well, even though it was tiny). At this point, the iPod market is ripe for commoditization. Since tech advances have made performance factors no longer an issue, there's an opening for the less efficient modular approach to offer other benefits, like cheaper price, more configurable and so on. But there's a problem. iPod sales are down. They are being cannibalized by iPhones and iPads. That is, performance is now so good, that people would rather carry something heavier than an iPod Shuffle in return for more functionality (like movies, phone calls, internet and apps). I haven't checked, but I imagine the current iPhone probably has similar weight & size to the first iPod. In these new categories, performance again becomes a premium: people would love a faster iPhone, that has more memory, that is lighter (where "love" means "would pay for"). To summarize: the iPod digital-music-player category wave didn't last long enough to become commoditized. But note that my key point remains: Apple needs a pipeline of products, where its integrated approach gives a competitive advantage.