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Historically the US-Dollar became dominant in the 50/60ties when the oil exporting countries were partially forced, partially by their own preference staring fa
by menotyou 8y ago
Historically the US-Dollar became dominant in the 50/60ties when the oil exporting countries were partially forced, partially by their own preference staring factoring their oil bills in USD. One reason among others was that only the USD market was big enough to provide enough liquidity for the oil market. Other exporters then started billing their export goods in USD Dollars so they could pay their oil bill with the Dollars earned.
Ever since this becoming more a self sustainable system by which more goods were billed in USD because more exporters wanted to buy imports billed in USD. The US itself as only country as extraordinary privilege in the world could just print the currency at will, while others had to sell products to earn the currency.
The other side of the deal was, that Europe an Japan were using their economic capacities producing civilian goods, whereas the U.S. could buy these goods with printed money and could use the capacities to build up an otherwise unsustainable large military sector to protect their allies.
As another effect, USD trades are ultimately settled buy the U.S. Fed, so the U.S. can effectively get countries or companies out of the market as long the settlement is done in USD.
Fast forward today: The Euro is as big as USD. With EUR or CNY you can buy all products you want to have. When Russia, Venezuela and Iran decide to sell Oil or Gas there is little technical need to stick for USD. Further Trump cutting the U.S. side of the deal. Why should Europe other further grant the extraordinary privilege to the U.S? And why it would put it's own countries and companies a the risk of Feds goodwill to perform the settlement? Given Trumps apparent will to use the USD as a weapon, it is a question of national security for Europe, UK, Japan, Iran and the BRICS to change to a different regime.
My personal expectation is that settlement in EUR will be only transitional before SDRs issued by the BIS will become the final currency of choice. These will resemble the "Bancor" proposed by Keyenes before the Bretton Woods system was implemented
- sigvirt 8y agoThere is similar premise in James Rickards 2014 book The Death of Money. He describes trade dynamics and international organizations, including the Bank for International Settlements and their unit/basket of reserve currencies called Special Drawing Rights. Several years ago China was on about having the Yuan declared a reserve currency so it would be included as one of the currencies which comprise an SDR unit.