4 ms·

This article makes absolutely no sense. The EU chosing Iran over the US?! That is not what is going to happen over the reopened Iran deal. What is going to ha

by chvid 8y ago

This article makes absolutely no sense. The EU chosing Iran over the US?! That is not what is going to happen over the reopened Iran deal. What is going to happen is that the EU will fall in line and Iran will be forced to withdraw its activities in Syria, Iraq, Yemen ... due to the severity of the economic hardship caused by the sanctions.

sghiassy 8y ago
It’s about Europe choosing sovereignty over their own international politics rather than cow towing to the US. It’s not the EU preferring Iran over the US
- tragic 8y ago
  But if the means you choose to demonstrate your sovereignty is to defy a new wave of American sanctions on Iran, then you certainly are choosing Iran over the United States, as a brief glance at any recent news headlines will tell you. The current POTUS, and the large number of congressmen who hate Iran with a rather deranged fervour, will certainly interpret it that way.
  - plopilop 8y ago
    You're twisting the narrative here. US are the one who decided to quit the deal they signed in 2015. The one defying everyone else is the US, not the EU. So either the EU decides to submit to the US or decides to grow a spine. It appears it's the latter. Too bad for the US.
  - Grangar 8y ago
    It's not all black and white. I'd say it's not choosing Iran over the US, it's more a matter of distancing away from the US.
- Symbiote 8y ago
  > cow towing I like that, but the English word is "kowtow", borrowed from Chinese. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kowtow https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kowtow
tragic 8y ago
Besides which - what is Macron going to do if half the board of BNP Paribas is arrested when they land on US soil for sanctions busting? Invade? This seems like a very good way for the Europeans to learn how much of the international financial system relies on American goodwill to work as planned.
- chvid 8y ago
  Exactly. If France was the dominant world power we would be transacting in euros or francs and they would get to decide who was in the club. Until then ...
- pgeorgi 8y ago
  While we're considering hilarious and entirely unrealistic moves by those in power: Ask Germany (who's also part of the project) to round up Ramstein Air Base?
mrtksn 8y ago
I think it's the opposite of choosing, they are taking a measure to help their companies to privately trade with Iran so that they don't have to make choices between the USA and Iran. Politically though, it's very interesting, right? But I hope that we are not discussing that sort of politics here on HN because it rarely produces a good discussion.
chvid 8y ago
Whoa. Downvotes ... As if world power had something to do with technicalities, IT-systems, which currency to transact in. Sorry guys. This is not how the world works. The USD is dominant currency not because of the lack of alternatives. The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude. As long as that is the case it means the EU can get only token independence. Ultimately if the US says no - you cannot deal with Iran. Then that is the way it is. Does it mean that the EU is going to be nuclear bombed by the US? Of course not. It is much cheaper to go: One of your banks. It is not allowed to trade in USD anymore.
- quantummkv 8y ago
  You know the brits used to have such delusions back in the day. Look where they are at now. >The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude. Wrong. The USD was dominant currency because USA was the only major country untouched by WW2. Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. It is the dominant currency today because everyone is lazy to change the status quo as long it is working. If USA upsets the status quo it will be replaced. Just ask your cousins across the Atlantic how that works. P.S. your armed superiority is a joke. You were unable to defeat a bunch of untrained rice farmers. Your only armed victories in the last 50 years were against civilian militias. Any serious war with the standing armies of Russia, China or India will get you creamed. The only reason you are tolerated is because no one wants to be the one to start a war.
  - gandhium 8y ago
    > Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. Spain? Portugal? Brasil? Australia? > your armed superiority is a joke. Ah, comrade, I understood now. Check the score of recent clash with your "Wagner" mercs. How many US lost? Yes, zero.
miracle2k 8y ago
The EU will fall in line once Iran leaves the deal as well, and not a second before - that much is clear already. They have committed themselves to their strategy. Large internationals will stop dealing with Iran, some small businesses with no US market will continue. And the set of companies is not static. We all have to earn a living. If you don't want to import Iranian pistachios anymore, someone else will. Which is why the sanctioneers are so obsessed with shutting down SWIFT, and angry at the proposed vehicle. Because unless it's prohibitively costly to exchange money with Iran, someone will do it. Iran is going to sit still for a while. They will navigate the waters as best they can, which may include showing some restraint at times, but things have to get much much worse economically before you see the total withdrawal you are predicting. Assuming their internal situation stabilizes, which is not an unreasonable assumption at this point, Iran will at some point in the future declare that they do not consider themselves bound to the deal anymore, while emphasizing again that they do not seek a nuke and never have, and without initially escalating. They will then rebuild their nuclear infrastructure in steps and initially in secret whenever, trying to limit then fallout, as they have done before.

by chvid 8y ago

sghiassy 8y ago

It’s about Europe choosing sovereignty over their own international politics rather than cow towing to the US. It’s not the EU preferring Iran over the US

tragic 8y ago
But if the means you choose to demonstrate your sovereignty is to defy a new wave of American sanctions on Iran, then you certainly are choosing Iran over the United States, as a brief glance at any recent news headlines will tell you. The current POTUS, and the large number of congressmen who hate Iran with a rather deranged fervour, will certainly interpret it that way.
- plopilop 8y ago
  You're twisting the narrative here. US are the one who decided to quit the deal they signed in 2015. The one defying everyone else is the US, not the EU. So either the EU decides to submit to the US or decides to grow a spine. It appears it's the latter. Too bad for the US.
- Grangar 8y ago
  It's not all black and white. I'd say it's not choosing Iran over the US, it's more a matter of distancing away from the US.
Symbiote 8y ago
> cow towing I like that, but the English word is "kowtow", borrowed from Chinese. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kowtow https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kowtow

tragic 8y ago

Besides which - what is Macron going to do if half the board of BNP Paribas is arrested when they land on US soil for sanctions busting? Invade? This seems like a very good way for the Europeans to learn how much of the international financial system relies on American goodwill to work as planned.

chvid 8y ago
Exactly. If France was the dominant world power we would be transacting in euros or francs and they would get to decide who was in the club. Until then ...
pgeorgi 8y ago
While we're considering hilarious and entirely unrealistic moves by those in power: Ask Germany (who's also part of the project) to round up Ramstein Air Base?

mrtksn 8y ago

I think it's the opposite of choosing, they are taking a measure to help their companies to privately trade with Iran so that they don't have to make choices between the USA and Iran. Politically though, it's very interesting, right? But I hope that we are not discussing that sort of politics here on HN because it rarely produces a good discussion.

chvid 8y ago

Whoa. Downvotes ... As if world power had something to do with technicalities, IT-systems, which currency to transact in. Sorry guys. This is not how the world works. The USD is dominant currency not because of the lack of alternatives. The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude. As long as that is the case it means the EU can get only token independence. Ultimately if the US says no - you cannot deal with Iran. Then that is the way it is. Does it mean that the EU is going to be nuclear bombed by the US? Of course not. It is much cheaper to go: One of your banks. It is not allowed to trade in USD anymore.

quantummkv 8y ago
You know the brits used to have such delusions back in the day. Look where they are at now. >The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude. Wrong. The USD was dominant currency because USA was the only major country untouched by WW2. Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. It is the dominant currency today because everyone is lazy to change the status quo as long it is working. If USA upsets the status quo it will be replaced. Just ask your cousins across the Atlantic how that works. P.S. your armed superiority is a joke. You were unable to defeat a bunch of untrained rice farmers. Your only armed victories in the last 50 years were against civilian militias. Any serious war with the standing armies of Russia, China or India will get you creamed. The only reason you are tolerated is because no one wants to be the one to start a war.
- gandhium 8y ago
  > Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. Spain? Portugal? Brasil? Australia? > your armed superiority is a joke. Ah, comrade, I understood now. Check the score of recent clash with your "Wagner" mercs. How many US lost? Yes, zero.

miracle2k 8y ago

The EU will fall in line once Iran leaves the deal as well, and not a second before - that much is clear already. They have committed themselves to their strategy. Large internationals will stop dealing with Iran, some small businesses with no US market will continue. And the set of companies is not static. We all have to earn a living. If you don't want to import Iranian pistachios anymore, someone else will. Which is why the sanctioneers are so obsessed with shutting down SWIFT, and angry at the proposed vehicle. Because unless it's prohibitively costly to exchange money with Iran, someone will do it. Iran is going to sit still for a while. They will navigate the waters as best they can, which may include showing some restraint at times, but things have to get much much worse economically before you see the total withdrawal you are predicting. Assuming their internal situation stabilizes, which is not an unreasonable assumption at this point, Iran will at some point in the future declare that they do not consider themselves bound to the deal anymore, while emphasizing again that they do not seek a nuke and never have, and without initially escalating. They will then rebuild their nuclear infrastructure in steps and initially in secret whenever, trying to limit then fallout, as they have done before.