3 ms·
My rule of thumb (can't recall where I first heard of this, but it's not original) for translating from an engineer "how long will it take me to create a techni
by Infernal 8y ago
My rule of thumb (can't recall where I first heard of this, but it's not original) for translating from an engineer "how long will it take me to create a technical solution" estimate into the real world is to convert the estimate into the largest whole-number unit (so ~20 hours would be 3 days), then double the scalar and increment the unit, in this case 3 days would become 6 weeks - which while not perfect, is much closer to the reality than your original estimate.
I'm amazed by how often this rule has turned out to be reasonably accurate, though I'm sure there's some selection bias at work. And it certainly starts breaking down when you begin estimating in multiple months - however I would counter that if you're able to credibly estimate months of work on a solution, then you don't need this particular rule of thumb :)
- Swenrekcah 8y agoBerlin Brandenburg Airport was originally supposed to take 5 years, so according to this it will take 10 decades. Currently 1.5 decades in.
- projectramo 8y agoIF they're smart, they'll just change the estimate to 5 more months and get it done in 10 years.
- jaclaz 8y agoYes, this is what has been defined as "Latin" Time, JFYI: http://reboot.pro/topic/1013-h7pluginbuilder/?p=16104 http://reboot.pro/topic/1013-h7pluginbuilder/?p=16104 and it doesn't affect only software projects. Shouldn't apply - in theory - to Germans, but as the following post suggests about the Brandenburg airport, it may. Empirically this rule of thumb tends to be more accurate that the better known ninety-ninety rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety-ninety_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety-ninety_rule