8 ms·

I've been following Boston Dynamics for a long time, and this story is the first one I've read which explores my primary question about the company. I have a h

I've been following Boston Dynamics for a long time, and this story is the first one I've read which explores my primary question about the company. I have a hard time seeing Spot Mini - or any legged robot - being useful for surveillance, for the simple reason that a thousand fixed wireless cameras will always be cheaper and will almost always give you better coverage than a single mobile robot. And I have a hard time seeing legged robots used well for moving goods, outside some niche settings such as search and rescue. Tracks are so much simpler, so much cheaper, and so much more robust. Not quite as agile, but really — how often do you need something moved over ground that a tracked vehicle or a four-wheeler can't negotiate? And that you're willing to pay $50,000 for? Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of the tech BD develops. I just don't see a business plan for it.

lallysingh 8y ago
The National Park service comes to mind. Area's too big and disconnected for cameras + power + network (although you could sat-link the cameras, it'd be expensive).
- GlenTheMachine 8y ago
  Sure. There are niche use cases. But I still can't see a profitable business cse.
  - lallysingh 8y ago
    The big ones are in warehouses and taking care of the elderly, I figure. Maybe in-building package delivery, too. But really, the 4-leggers are loss leaders to pay for the 2 leggers. Compatible with human physical interfaces like doors, trunks. stairs, etc.
    - nickwalton00 8y ago
      Definitely taking care of the elderly is a huge problem we don't have a good solution for, but the technology is a long ways from being able to do that safely.
- llukas 8y ago
  Single aerial drone can cover lot more ground quicker.
- murukesh_s 8y ago
  yea, also something that can convert plant into energy like animals would do would enable a robot to stay forever in such an environment without needing to recharge.
  - r00fus 8y ago
    Yes, I really want Spot Mini to be self-powering. Next up: replication.
    - murukesh_s 8y ago
      Even though scary, I think sometime we might head towards that. Spot Mini enabled to operate 3D printers and assemble parts. Damn!
  - jpm_sd 8y ago
    meat-eating robots would probably be more efficient, right?
    - nickwalton00 8y ago
      Do you want a robot apocalypse? Because this is how we get a robot apocalypse.
debt 8y ago
SpotMini would be great for people with disabilities. I imagine there's a huge market in healthcare for these robots. A seeing-eye or service dog cost $59,600. So if they can get SpotMini down to that price point, I think it could dominate the market. Much easier to care for a robot than a dog.
- mxwsn 8y ago
  I went to a talk by Boston Dynamics at MIT recently. They've clearly thought long and hard about the commercialization problem, and they pinpointed this exact application as the first and best domain to pursue commercially, particularly for the elderly.
  - iguy 8y ago
    I'm surprised, or perhaps, can you be more specific about what they had in mind? If we could replace seeing-eye dogs with computer vision, good enough to help blind people cross the road, then why build it into a fake dog, not into fake sunglasses?
    - debt 8y ago
      If you combine poor vision with also poor motor function then a seeing-eye robot that can open doors is definitely your best option. Boston Dynamics could easily make different models for people of varying abilities. A SpotMini for the blind, one for people with motor impairments, one for people with both. They could make one for in-home use specifically, so maybe two SpotMini's could handoff once the person leaves the house. A set of SpotMinis. It's a massive problem space.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
Hasz 8y ago
I see plenty of usage in automation. Most domestic (US) manufacturing is highly automated, there's simply no way around it. However, for some parts of the factory, tracks/wheels just don't cut it -- think iron works, rougher terrain, variable terrain etc. A bipedal or quadrupedal robot could make lots of sense. There's also military usage -- if you can build an autonomous robot, it's not not much of a stretch to use those same design chops to augment a human. Granted, the last one is fairly speculative, but their market is composed entirely of B2B/G and those customers are likely going to get their own highly customized versions of the robots Boston Dynamics produces for a princely sum.
murukesh_s 8y ago
Military, fire fighting + rescue, personal assistants for elderly etc (and perhaps several more). I think military applications are huge. Drones aren't very efficient and probably wont be unless they are radically redesigned.
njarboe 8y ago
If you build one that can carry a person, then I could see a large market for people who want to go places that they can't by powered scooter. Like anywhere that has just stairs(friends house), nature trails, etc. Buying one could be almost as cheap as putting in one of those rail elevators in your house.
walrus01 8y ago
Some combination of a large x8 design octocopter (4 arms, 8 motors) capable of lifting 10-20kg and transporting it up to 10km away, where it can drop a legged walking robot, could be useful for a great deal of purposes in search and rescue. One of the things that will be a game changer for SAR robots is high-bandwidth video/remote control literally anywhere on the planet with a satellite signal, at least 400-500 kbps data rates which will be possible with the Iridium NEXT satellite constellation (vs 2.4 kbps right now). Right now such data rates are only possible in areas with decent HSPA+/LTE coverage, which is not where a lot of SAR activity takes place. Now imagine putting a setup with a high-res visual spectrum camera, a starlight camera, and a FLIR camera on the spot mini for heat sensing/night vision, and having multiple spot mini remote controlled by people walking through trails and searching an area.
clairity 8y ago
the reason legged locomotion dominates terrestrial creatures is simple: uneven terrain. otherwise animals would have wheels, since it's more efficient on relatively flat surfaces. this is really the only (broad) use case for legged robots, which is why the military is interested in it but BD struggles to find commercial success.
iguy 8y ago
I think infantry is the only answer, really. The army still finds it really essential to have lots of guys walking around on two legs, who can go anywhere their opponents can go. And often carrying a serious weight, because having stuff with you is very useful. They have lots of tracked things and flying things too, obviously. All of which will be ever more automated, too. I can see other niches, like carrying wounded hikers out of canyons where you can't fly, but agree that hardly sounds like a billion-dollar industry. Industrial uses I'm more dubious, I mean any warehouse already has a nice flat concrete floor... lots of uses for vision etc. but not so much for walking.
- modzu 8y ago
  yep, infantry seems like the obvious application. wasnt BD funded by darpa?
_hardwaregeek 8y ago
The recent video of stunt robots definitely demonstrates that there's a need for humanoid robots. Probably very niche though.
nedwin 8y ago
Assuming the price will come down I think about package delivery implications. How do I get my Amazon or Uber Eats deliveries in 10 years time? Do I still go to the front door of my building, or does it arrive at my front door or even right into my loungeroom? Or will we forever be stuck schlepping up and down from our apartments? ;)
deevolution 8y ago
They specialize in making robots that can react and behave in dynamic, real world environemnts. There is use cases for them all over - mostly replacing humans in high risk scenarios such as fire fighting or nuclear waste removal/cleanup etc... the tech isnt quite there yet but if theyre allowed continued funding and the time to research they will eventually get there.
PopePompus 8y ago
I used to work with an astronomical observatory which was located on a mountain (Mauna Kea). When things were running smoothly, the telescope could be controlled entirely remotely, and the observatory itself would be unoccupied. But often some little issue would arise that would require a button to be pushed, or would require some small display to be examined and a small manual adjustment made. Now by far most of the equipment could be reset or power-cycled or programmed remotely - but not everything. So occasionally someone would have to drive up and down a mountain just to push one or more buttons. If there had been a robot that we could control remotely and have it examine a display and push a few buttons, that would have been extremely helpful. If the robot had some onboard test equipment, like a spectrum analyzer, which it could plug into a test point and produce a plot for remote display, it could significantly reduce the grunt-work of technicians. I suspect there are a lot of remote sites for microwave towers etc which could really use a robot dog that could push buttons.
- Someone 8y ago
  What makes those buttons/displays different from the ones that can be operated/looked at remotely? Wouldn’t it be easier to just make them remotely operable/viewable, too?
- illwrks 8y ago
  Rather than improving that process adding a complex machine will only add another point of failure, which won't be noticed until the thing it's there to be used for has an issue... I guess you could have a robot to look after the robot but that just complicates it even more
sytelus 8y ago
You need to look at this as solving puzzle piece by piece. In essence they are getting better and better at doing sophisticated controllers for multi-DOF robots. Atlas is 35-DOF robot and we get amazed by it. Human body is 230+ DOF mechanism. If they can continue on their current path they might be able to produce very usable robot that can replace human in laborious work. Sure, it’s long way to go but so someone would need to develop this tech nonetheless. Human labor is the largest industry on the planet worth 10s of trillions of dollars and is the biggest bottleneck. A 10 or 20 years investment for a trillion dollar business opportunity definitely makes sense.

lallysingh 8y ago

The National Park service comes to mind. Area's too big and disconnected for cameras + power + network (although you could sat-link the cameras, it'd be expensive).

GlenTheMachine 8y ago
Sure. There are niche use cases. But I still can't see a profitable business cse.
- lallysingh 8y ago
  The big ones are in warehouses and taking care of the elderly, I figure. Maybe in-building package delivery, too. But really, the 4-leggers are loss leaders to pay for the 2 leggers. Compatible with human physical interfaces like doors, trunks. stairs, etc.
  - nickwalton00 8y ago
    Definitely taking care of the elderly is a huge problem we don't have a good solution for, but the technology is a long ways from being able to do that safely.
llukas 8y ago
Single aerial drone can cover lot more ground quicker.
murukesh_s 8y ago
yea, also something that can convert plant into energy like animals would do would enable a robot to stay forever in such an environment without needing to recharge.
- r00fus 8y ago
  Yes, I really want Spot Mini to be self-powering. Next up: replication.
  - murukesh_s 8y ago
    Even though scary, I think sometime we might head towards that. Spot Mini enabled to operate 3D printers and assemble parts. Damn!
- jpm_sd 8y ago
  meat-eating robots would probably be more efficient, right?
  - nickwalton00 8y ago
    Do you want a robot apocalypse? Because this is how we get a robot apocalypse.

debt 8y ago

SpotMini would be great for people with disabilities. I imagine there's a huge market in healthcare for these robots. A seeing-eye or service dog cost $59,600. So if they can get SpotMini down to that price point, I think it could dominate the market. Much easier to care for a robot than a dog.

mxwsn 8y ago
I went to a talk by Boston Dynamics at MIT recently. They've clearly thought long and hard about the commercialization problem, and they pinpointed this exact application as the first and best domain to pursue commercially, particularly for the elderly.
- iguy 8y ago
  I'm surprised, or perhaps, can you be more specific about what they had in mind? If we could replace seeing-eye dogs with computer vision, good enough to help blind people cross the road, then why build it into a fake dog, not into fake sunglasses?
  - debt 8y ago
    If you combine poor vision with also poor motor function then a seeing-eye robot that can open doors is definitely your best option. Boston Dynamics could easily make different models for people of varying abilities. A SpotMini for the blind, one for people with motor impairments, one for people with both. They could make one for in-home use specifically, so maybe two SpotMini's could handoff once the person leaves the house. A set of SpotMinis. It's a massive problem space.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

Hasz 8y ago

I see plenty of usage in automation. Most domestic (US) manufacturing is highly automated, there's simply no way around it. However, for some parts of the factory, tracks/wheels just don't cut it -- think iron works, rougher terrain, variable terrain etc. A bipedal or quadrupedal robot could make lots of sense. There's also military usage -- if you can build an autonomous robot, it's not not much of a stretch to use those same design chops to augment a human. Granted, the last one is fairly speculative, but their market is composed entirely of B2B/G and those customers are likely going to get their own highly customized versions of the robots Boston Dynamics produces for a princely sum.

murukesh_s 8y ago

Military, fire fighting + rescue, personal assistants for elderly etc (and perhaps several more). I think military applications are huge. Drones aren't very efficient and probably wont be unless they are radically redesigned.

njarboe 8y ago

If you build one that can carry a person, then I could see a large market for people who want to go places that they can't by powered scooter. Like anywhere that has just stairs(friends house), nature trails, etc. Buying one could be almost as cheap as putting in one of those rail elevators in your house.

walrus01 8y ago

Some combination of a large x8 design octocopter (4 arms, 8 motors) capable of lifting 10-20kg and transporting it up to 10km away, where it can drop a legged walking robot, could be useful for a great deal of purposes in search and rescue. One of the things that will be a game changer for SAR robots is high-bandwidth video/remote control literally anywhere on the planet with a satellite signal, at least 400-500 kbps data rates which will be possible with the Iridium NEXT satellite constellation (vs 2.4 kbps right now). Right now such data rates are only possible in areas with decent HSPA+/LTE coverage, which is not where a lot of SAR activity takes place. Now imagine putting a setup with a high-res visual spectrum camera, a starlight camera, and a FLIR camera on the spot mini for heat sensing/night vision, and having multiple spot mini remote controlled by people walking through trails and searching an area.

clairity 8y ago

the reason legged locomotion dominates terrestrial creatures is simple: uneven terrain. otherwise animals would have wheels, since it's more efficient on relatively flat surfaces. this is really the only (broad) use case for legged robots, which is why the military is interested in it but BD struggles to find commercial success.

iguy 8y ago

I think infantry is the only answer, really. The army still finds it really essential to have lots of guys walking around on two legs, who can go anywhere their opponents can go. And often carrying a serious weight, because having stuff with you is very useful. They have lots of tracked things and flying things too, obviously. All of which will be ever more automated, too. I can see other niches, like carrying wounded hikers out of canyons where you can't fly, but agree that hardly sounds like a billion-dollar industry. Industrial uses I'm more dubious, I mean any warehouse already has a nice flat concrete floor... lots of uses for vision etc. but not so much for walking.

modzu 8y ago
yep, infantry seems like the obvious application. wasnt BD funded by darpa?

_hardwaregeek 8y ago

The recent video of stunt robots definitely demonstrates that there's a need for humanoid robots. Probably very niche though.

nedwin 8y ago

Assuming the price will come down I think about package delivery implications. How do I get my Amazon or Uber Eats deliveries in 10 years time? Do I still go to the front door of my building, or does it arrive at my front door or even right into my loungeroom? Or will we forever be stuck schlepping up and down from our apartments? ;)

deevolution 8y ago

They specialize in making robots that can react and behave in dynamic, real world environemnts. There is use cases for them all over - mostly replacing humans in high risk scenarios such as fire fighting or nuclear waste removal/cleanup etc... the tech isnt quite there yet but if theyre allowed continued funding and the time to research they will eventually get there.

PopePompus 8y ago

I used to work with an astronomical observatory which was located on a mountain (Mauna Kea). When things were running smoothly, the telescope could be controlled entirely remotely, and the observatory itself would be unoccupied. But often some little issue would arise that would require a button to be pushed, or would require some small display to be examined and a small manual adjustment made. Now by far most of the equipment could be reset or power-cycled or programmed remotely - but not everything. So occasionally someone would have to drive up and down a mountain just to push one or more buttons. If there had been a robot that we could control remotely and have it examine a display and push a few buttons, that would have been extremely helpful. If the robot had some onboard test equipment, like a spectrum analyzer, which it could plug into a test point and produce a plot for remote display, it could significantly reduce the grunt-work of technicians. I suspect there are a lot of remote sites for microwave towers etc which could really use a robot dog that could push buttons.

Someone 8y ago
What makes those buttons/displays different from the ones that can be operated/looked at remotely? Wouldn’t it be easier to just make them remotely operable/viewable, too?
illwrks 8y ago
Rather than improving that process adding a complex machine will only add another point of failure, which won't be noticed until the thing it's there to be used for has an issue... I guess you could have a robot to look after the robot but that just complicates it even more

sytelus 8y ago

You need to look at this as solving puzzle piece by piece. In essence they are getting better and better at doing sophisticated controllers for multi-DOF robots. Atlas is 35-DOF robot and we get amazed by it. Human body is 230+ DOF mechanism. If they can continue on their current path they might be able to produce very usable robot that can replace human in laborious work. Sure, it’s long way to go but so someone would need to develop this tech nonetheless. Human labor is the largest industry on the planet worth 10s of trillions of dollars and is the biggest bottleneck. A 10 or 20 years investment for a trillion dollar business opportunity definitely makes sense.