> I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old USSR did by 2028. At the library the other day my eye was caught by a book on the shelf

> I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old USSR did by 2028. At the library the other day my eye was caught by a book on the shelf about the “looming collapse of China”. I took it down, saw that the back cover augured that China would surely collapse within 5 years... and then I opened the book to the copyright page and saw that it was published in the early millennium. Forecasts that any country is going to collapse can really miss the target in retrospect. > They are even making the exact same mistakes like building roads and infrastructure in central asia. The USSR’s ultimately fatal mistake was a bloated military sector and the planned economy. Its development efforts in Central Asia are not typically viewed as a big mistake, and Moscow’s ability to extract resources from Central Asia probably staved off the collapse for a time. If you have seen someone claim otherwise, perhaps you could post a citation? > all the ... ethnic separatism In fact, China’s brutal panopticon police state has probably neutered ethnic separatism. Yes, Tibetans and Uighurs harbour grievances, but the sheer number of Han Chinese settling in those regions, and the total control of communications and people’s movements, means it is unlikely that those peoples would ever be able to adequately network to push for change. For those of us interested in how ethnic minorities fared under the USSR, China’s efforts to supress their minorities are at a whole different level.