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This is assuming that the communist party of china will be able to maintain their grip. I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old US

This is assuming that the communist party of china will be able to maintain their grip. I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old USSR did by 2028. They are even making the exact same mistakes like building roads and infrastructure in central asia. If you've been following China for a while, you will see how nervous the leadership is, and like Putin, opted for "military achievements" to rally troops, and now facing a recession born out of the US-China trade war and all the social revolt and ethnic separatism oppressed for so long will explode. Information is like entropy. It can't be contained. China's internet only works because they are willing to kill people over tweets and harvest their organs. You can't keep this up.

Mediterraneo10 8y ago
> I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old USSR did by 2028. At the library the other day my eye was caught by a book on the shelf about the “looming collapse of China”. I took it down, saw that the back cover augured that China would surely collapse within 5 years... and then I opened the book to the copyright page and saw that it was published in the early millennium. Forecasts that any country is going to collapse can really miss the target in retrospect. > They are even making the exact same mistakes like building roads and infrastructure in central asia. The USSR’s ultimately fatal mistake was a bloated military sector and the planned economy. Its development efforts in Central Asia are not typically viewed as a big mistake, and Moscow’s ability to extract resources from Central Asia probably staved off the collapse for a time. If you have seen someone claim otherwise, perhaps you could post a citation? > all the ... ethnic separatism In fact, China’s brutal panopticon police state has probably neutered ethnic separatism. Yes, Tibetans and Uighurs harbour grievances, but the sheer number of Han Chinese settling in those regions, and the total control of communications and people’s movements, means it is unlikely that those peoples would ever be able to adequately network to push for change. For those of us interested in how ethnic minorities fared under the USSR, China’s efforts to supress their minorities are at a whole different level.
anotheramala 8y ago
Wasn't there a lot of economic instability in the soviet union? The Chinese leadership must have understood that and took on economic prosperity as the main way to preserve their government.

Mediterraneo10 8y ago

> I'd say it's far more likely to see China split up much like the old USSR did by 2028. At the library the other day my eye was caught by a book on the shelf about the “looming collapse of China”. I took it down, saw that the back cover augured that China would surely collapse within 5 years... and then I opened the book to the copyright page and saw that it was published in the early millennium. Forecasts that any country is going to collapse can really miss the target in retrospect. > They are even making the exact same mistakes like building roads and infrastructure in central asia. The USSR’s ultimately fatal mistake was a bloated military sector and the planned economy. Its development efforts in Central Asia are not typically viewed as a big mistake, and Moscow’s ability to extract resources from Central Asia probably staved off the collapse for a time. If you have seen someone claim otherwise, perhaps you could post a citation? > all the ... ethnic separatism In fact, China’s brutal panopticon police state has probably neutered ethnic separatism. Yes, Tibetans and Uighurs harbour grievances, but the sheer number of Han Chinese settling in those regions, and the total control of communications and people’s movements, means it is unlikely that those peoples would ever be able to adequately network to push for change. For those of us interested in how ethnic minorities fared under the USSR, China’s efforts to supress their minorities are at a whole different level.

anotheramala 8y ago

Wasn't there a lot of economic instability in the soviet union? The Chinese leadership must have understood that and took on economic prosperity as the main way to preserve their government.