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I seriously expect, in the near future, only people with highly specialist needs like software developers, video/audio professionals and the like to still use s

I seriously expect, in the near future, only people with highly specialist needs like software developers, video/audio professionals and the like to still use some kind of laptop or desktop -- everyone else will pretty much move to some kind of tablet of various sizes (including mobile "phones").

incompatible 8y ago
I think by "highly specialist needs" you mean creating content rather than just consuming it.
- richardknop 8y ago
  Exactly, basically every office worker in service economy who needs to use Excel/Word/Powerpoint or any application like that will be using a desktop computer decade from now. People saying mobile phones or tables are going to take over this segment of market are missing how difficult it is to create content on mobile phone other than pictures or short videos.
  - BerislavLopac 8y ago
    I'm not saying that tablets will take over this segment -- I'm saying that this segment will be replaced by automating data processes.
  - freeone3000 8y ago
    They'll look like laptops but won't be running Windows, Linux, or Mac. They'll be running iOS or Android. The iPad Pro or the Surface line are the first entries into this model. The pure Android solutions are more DIY but really, slap a keyboard onto a tablet and you've got something perfectly servicable for Word or Excel, at a higher performance/$ and a smaller attack surface than currently deployed desktops.
- BerislavLopac 8y ago
  No, I mean "creating highly specialist content". Many types of content can already be -- and in many cases is -- quite validly created on devices like iPad Pro: photography, drawings, graphical design, and above all writing. And the tools are still being improved.
contingencies 8y ago
Yes. The old miniature PC motherboard formats are disappearing... almost gone. In their wake are custom machines, sometimes known as SOM (system on module) which are much smaller and produced for a combination of embedded applications such as TV set-top boxes. I project these will steal more desktop and laptop market, as they are so cheap. Example @ http://shop.t-firefly.com/category.php?id=2 http://shop.t-firefly.com/category.php?id=2
richardknop 8y ago
Don't think so. 90% of office jobs in service economy are still basically about entering numbers into Excel spreadsheets and making documents, powerpoint presentations etc. I just don't see any way to make spreadsheet application like Excel work on a touchscreen at an acceptable level for generic office employees. Furthermore, I am going to make a crazy prediction. I think we will see a substantial revival of PCs in the coming decade as people start finding out there are some things mobile phones or tables will just never be able to do. Only thing needed is an open source operating system with good UI because Windows is obviously not a way forward.
- BerislavLopac 8y ago
  "Entering numbers into Excel spreadsheets" is being replaced by automated processes as we speak.
  - richardknop 8y ago
    So what will all those people do? It would be politically impossible to allow automation to replace all these jobs. I think these jobs will be kept around just to make the electorate happy.
    - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
      I suppose that view makes sense if you conveniently ignore everything that's happened since the industrial revolution.
  - rchaud 8y ago
    Until megacorps like Microsoft, Adobe, Salesforce etc stop offering their bread-and-butter products on a fee per user per month basis, the whole automation thing is still going to need people to make it happen.
- freeone3000 8y ago
  Android and iOS have keyboard HID support baked in. Pair your keyboard to a tablet, boom, you have a data entry terminal that can run Excel just fine, and has a greatly restricted attack and security surface. This is essentially the model of Chromebooks, but there's nothing particularly magical about Chromebooks over any other Android tablet. I don't think Windows or Linux are going to be the OS of choice for most people in the future, regardless of what physical form the computers take.
Angostura 8y ago
That and all the people ho don't have any need for mobility and want nice big screens and decent keyboards and ergonomics. Everyone in the offices where I work are on desktops, I don'yt see it changing.
thirdsun 8y ago
As a daily and happy user of an iPad I think these devices still have a long way to go before they become a desktop replacement. Let me illustrate this by outlining a bunch of small tasks I, as a music collector, am confronted with several times a week: - buy a bunch of releases from bandcamp or other digital stores - download them - extract them - if necessary convert them to Apple Lossless (ALAC) at 44.1 KHz / 16 Bit - check and adjust the meta data / tags of the files and have them renamed accordingly - move them to my NAS from where they are served to various devices and players around the house All of these tasks are fairly simple and should be easily handled by an iPad, yet the OS and lack of a real file browser is limiting the device's abilities to such an extent that I have to get back to my desktop to handle these mundane duties. You might argue that my use case is a very niche one, the ways in which computers are used are made of countless niche applications and tasks, which repeatedly show the limitations of tablets and phones, despite their potential.
- BerislavLopac 8y ago
  I'm sure that there are enough people with the same or similar problems to make an iOS app viable...
  - thirdsun 8y ago
    I wish. While I could see dedicated apps for the conversion and tagging tasks (on macOS this is done by apps like XLD[1] or Meta[2] respectively), the ability to download, extract and move files requires a good, powerful, ideally first-party file browser in my opinion. It could be handled apps, but I think it's awkward to use several different apps for basic task like extracting, file management and talking to SMB shares. [1] https://tmkk.undo.jp/xld/index_e.html https://tmkk.undo.jp/xld/index_e.html [2] https://www.nightbirdsevolve.com/meta/ https://www.nightbirdsevolve.com/meta/

incompatible 8y ago

I think by "highly specialist needs" you mean creating content rather than just consuming it.

richardknop 8y ago
Exactly, basically every office worker in service economy who needs to use Excel/Word/Powerpoint or any application like that will be using a desktop computer decade from now. People saying mobile phones or tables are going to take over this segment of market are missing how difficult it is to create content on mobile phone other than pictures or short videos.
- BerislavLopac 8y ago
  I'm not saying that tablets will take over this segment -- I'm saying that this segment will be replaced by automating data processes.
- freeone3000 8y ago
  They'll look like laptops but won't be running Windows, Linux, or Mac. They'll be running iOS or Android. The iPad Pro or the Surface line are the first entries into this model. The pure Android solutions are more DIY but really, slap a keyboard onto a tablet and you've got something perfectly servicable for Word or Excel, at a higher performance/$ and a smaller attack surface than currently deployed desktops.
BerislavLopac 8y ago
No, I mean "creating highly specialist content". Many types of content can already be -- and in many cases is -- quite validly created on devices like iPad Pro: photography, drawings, graphical design, and above all writing. And the tools are still being improved.

contingencies 8y ago

Yes. The old miniature PC motherboard formats are disappearing... almost gone. In their wake are custom machines, sometimes known as SOM (system on module) which are much smaller and produced for a combination of embedded applications such as TV set-top boxes. I project these will steal more desktop and laptop market, as they are so cheap. Example @ http://shop.t-firefly.com/category.php?id=2 http://shop.t-firefly.com/category.php?id=2

richardknop 8y ago

Don't think so. 90% of office jobs in service economy are still basically about entering numbers into Excel spreadsheets and making documents, powerpoint presentations etc. I just don't see any way to make spreadsheet application like Excel work on a touchscreen at an acceptable level for generic office employees. Furthermore, I am going to make a crazy prediction. I think we will see a substantial revival of PCs in the coming decade as people start finding out there are some things mobile phones or tables will just never be able to do. Only thing needed is an open source operating system with good UI because Windows is obviously not a way forward.

BerislavLopac 8y ago
"Entering numbers into Excel spreadsheets" is being replaced by automated processes as we speak.
- richardknop 8y ago
  So what will all those people do? It would be politically impossible to allow automation to replace all these jobs. I think these jobs will be kept around just to make the electorate happy.
  - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
    I suppose that view makes sense if you conveniently ignore everything that's happened since the industrial revolution.
- rchaud 8y ago
  Until megacorps like Microsoft, Adobe, Salesforce etc stop offering their bread-and-butter products on a fee per user per month basis, the whole automation thing is still going to need people to make it happen.
freeone3000 8y ago
Android and iOS have keyboard HID support baked in. Pair your keyboard to a tablet, boom, you have a data entry terminal that can run Excel just fine, and has a greatly restricted attack and security surface. This is essentially the model of Chromebooks, but there's nothing particularly magical about Chromebooks over any other Android tablet. I don't think Windows or Linux are going to be the OS of choice for most people in the future, regardless of what physical form the computers take.

Angostura 8y ago

That and all the people ho don't have any need for mobility and want nice big screens and decent keyboards and ergonomics. Everyone in the offices where I work are on desktops, I don'yt see it changing.

thirdsun 8y ago

As a daily and happy user of an iPad I think these devices still have a long way to go before they become a desktop replacement. Let me illustrate this by outlining a bunch of small tasks I, as a music collector, am confronted with several times a week: - buy a bunch of releases from bandcamp or other digital stores - download them - extract them - if necessary convert them to Apple Lossless (ALAC) at 44.1 KHz / 16 Bit - check and adjust the meta data / tags of the files and have them renamed accordingly - move them to my NAS from where they are served to various devices and players around the house All of these tasks are fairly simple and should be easily handled by an iPad, yet the OS and lack of a real file browser is limiting the device's abilities to such an extent that I have to get back to my desktop to handle these mundane duties. You might argue that my use case is a very niche one, the ways in which computers are used are made of countless niche applications and tasks, which repeatedly show the limitations of tablets and phones, despite their potential.

BerislavLopac 8y ago
I'm sure that there are enough people with the same or similar problems to make an iOS app viable...
- thirdsun 8y ago
  I wish. While I could see dedicated apps for the conversion and tagging tasks (on macOS this is done by apps like XLD[1] or Meta[2] respectively), the ability to download, extract and move files requires a good, powerful, ideally first-party file browser in my opinion. It could be handled apps, but I think it's awkward to use several different apps for basic task like extracting, file management and talking to SMB shares. [1] https://tmkk.undo.jp/xld/index_e.html https://tmkk.undo.jp/xld/index_e.html [2] https://www.nightbirdsevolve.com/meta/ https://www.nightbirdsevolve.com/meta/