5 ms·
Picking n = 60 compares Falcon's first n attempts with Ariane's best stretch. It conveniently ignores Ariane's initial mis-steps that every complex system is pr
by blago 8y ago
Picking n = 60 compares Falcon's first n attempts with Ariane's best stretch. It conveniently ignores Ariane's initial mis-steps that every complex system is prone to.
By the same token I can cherry-pick n=30 and claim victory :-) Neither is a fair comparison.
Honestly, I think it's remarkable that Falcon has had only 5% failure rate considering that the launch vehicle has undergone constant tweaking for reusability. I am not familiar with Ariane's evolution but I would be surprised it it's seen similar amount of change.
Maybe we should wait until Falcon catches up with the total number of launches and compare apples to apples then?
- hef19898 8y agoNo disagreement there, just pointing out that a) a simple failuee rate percentage is insufficient and b) one should not discard Arian out of hand based on SpaceX hype alone. Again, SpaceX did an incredible job, no doubt there. Doesn't change the reliability numbers of the last launches. And yes, ultimately SpaceX will catch-up. And then we can have discusion about the reliability of the Falcon Heavy or BFR vs. the new Ariane rocket. Hopefully giving Ariane the same benfit of doubt in case SpaceX is further down in the rocket life cycle for a comparable rocket. ;)