4 ms·

I read recently that 6 degree warning means that agriculture won't be possible any longer outside the polar circles. I'd call that fairly impactful.

stale2002 8y ago
Well, the IPCC doesn't think that, and also doesn't believe that we are going to get to 6 degrees C of warming. The predictions that I follow are not the pop doomsday predictions made on the internet. It is instead the predictions made by the official government experts on climate change. Also, all of this is definitely not predicted to happen within 20 years. actually bad effects are predicted more like 200 years+ from now. Which is plenty of time, if you just look at how much the human race has accomplished in the previous 200 years.
- konschubert 8y ago
  I think it's naive to say "they'll figure it out within 100 years". Mankind's history is full of periods of technological stagnation and regression.
nl 8y ago
No serious predictions include a 6 degree increase in the near to medium term. Don’t pass on crazy predictions like that, it causes people to ignore the real problems a 1 or 2 degree increase will cause.
- konschubert 8y ago
  > near or medium term I want my grandchildren to be able to see their grandchildren grow up on habitable planet. But if you say that 6 years isn't going to happen in 1000 years and point me to sources then I'd be very happy to hear that.
  - nl 8y ago
    There are no negative predictions especially nor 1000 years out, and asking for them shows a complete lack of understanding of how prediction science works. Nevertheless: And the researchers say this means the probability of the ECS being less than 1.5°C—the Paris Climate Agreement’s super optimistic goal beyond the 2°C goal—is less than 3 percent. The upside, though, is they say this new estimate means the probability of the ECS passing 4.5°C is less than 1 percent. https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/ https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-...
    - konschubert 8y ago
      You are right, I am very uneducated on this topic and only recently started reading. Thank you for the link.

stale2002 8y ago

Well, the IPCC doesn't think that, and also doesn't believe that we are going to get to 6 degrees C of warming. The predictions that I follow are not the pop doomsday predictions made on the internet. It is instead the predictions made by the official government experts on climate change. Also, all of this is definitely not predicted to happen within 20 years. actually bad effects are predicted more like 200 years+ from now. Which is plenty of time, if you just look at how much the human race has accomplished in the previous 200 years.

konschubert 8y ago
I think it's naive to say "they'll figure it out within 100 years". Mankind's history is full of periods of technological stagnation and regression.

nl 8y ago

No serious predictions include a 6 degree increase in the near to medium term. Don’t pass on crazy predictions like that, it causes people to ignore the real problems a 1 or 2 degree increase will cause.

konschubert 8y ago
> near or medium term I want my grandchildren to be able to see their grandchildren grow up on habitable planet. But if you say that 6 years isn't going to happen in 1000 years and point me to sources then I'd be very happy to hear that.
- nl 8y ago
  There are no negative predictions especially nor 1000 years out, and asking for them shows a complete lack of understanding of how prediction science works. Nevertheless: And the researchers say this means the probability of the ECS being less than 1.5°C—the Paris Climate Agreement’s super optimistic goal beyond the 2°C goal—is less than 3 percent. The upside, though, is they say this new estimate means the probability of the ECS passing 4.5°C is less than 1 percent. https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/ https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-...
  - konschubert 8y ago
    You are right, I am very uneducated on this topic and only recently started reading. Thank you for the link.