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Building a highly capable rocket company like SpaceX is one of those things that seems like an obvious process but for various reasons is surprisingly not. One
by InclinedPlane 8y ago
Building a highly capable rocket company like SpaceX is one of those things that seems like an obvious process but for various reasons is surprisingly not. One common way to go about it is to get a bunch of money together, hire a bunch of aerospace engineers with relevant expertise, come up with a design, then build that design and parlay that into a business.
This works, but it's not as effective as you'd think. It's hugely expensive, it's slow, it has a lot of traps and pitfalls for the unwary, it often leads to highly compromised and undertested designs that are often kind of mediocre in one or multiple respects. And, again, it's expensive, it leads to expensive rockets and expensive launch costs. Ironically, developing for lower cost launches is seemingly even more expensive in up front costs due to the extra engineering, lower margins, etc.
Additionally, one of the dirty little secrets of the rocket business is that very, very few organizations actually have any current practical experience in creating new rockets from scratch. It's one thing to run through all the machining, assembly, etc. for a rocket that's already been designed, built, proven, etc, it's quite another thing to start off with a blank piece of paper and build a rocket starting from nothing.
So the smart way to build rockets isn't the above "obvious" way, it's an inherently iterative (agile) approach. Step 1 isn't building a rocket, it's building a team that can build a rocket. And you don't just iterate through improving the capabilities of your rocket design you also iterate through leveling up the skillset (at individual and organizational levels) of your company. It's a sort of tick/tock cadence, and each side is just as important as the other. Then, you build out a "minimum viable business" so that you can get revenue (and profits and investment capital) rolling in, keeping the company afloat, paying for new engineering and the development of new capabilities. Then you iterate and iterate and iterate your way to bigger and better things.
This model might seem extremely familiar and extremely obvious to the silicon valley set but it really is kind of foreign in the aerospace world (there's actually a bunch of interviews on youtube from NASA engineers working with SpaceX being amazed at what they were able to do and how much their process differed from the bureaucratic norms in the field). And, to be fair, plenty of New Space companies have followed similar models (Armadillo Aerospace, X-COR, Masten, several others) but for one reason or another none of them had the capabilities or the capital to jump to the level of success of SpaceX (so far).
In any event, this is precisely what SpaceX did. They started out with a dead simple (decades old) rocket design, they built a team that built a small rocket capable of getting some launch business. They streamlined the company by vertically integrating to allow faster iteration and lower costs. They iterated like crazy, they made a few mistakes here and there, had some bad luck here and there, but they managed to scrape through the choke points. They were able to launch a payload and get enough business to stay afloat, they were able to get investments and development contracts for future business that would allow them to fund further iterative improvements to their rockets. They relentlessly managed risks in an incredibly savvy way that should be taught in business schools and were able to operate an R&D program that made use of about a billion dollars in aerospace hardware for a fraction of the cost to the company itself.
A lot of this stuff is textbook modern software dev technique. Continuous integration, continuous delivery. Feature flags (to let you test new code works doing the "old" job before testing that the new code also performs new features). You'd think a big company like Google would be able to get this right, but it requires a level of commitment and an acceptance of loss ("failures" during R&D) that big, established companies are often reluctant to take on.
- hef19898 8y agoCouldn't agree more, aerospace is is an incredibly hard business, espiacially due to the pittyfull long development cycles. For aircraft you could as far as saying that one generation of engineers is developing it, the second one is using it and for the successor you need a third generation all together. Knowledge for these projects is incredible hard to develop, retain and keep. So the real moonshot in that industry would be a solution to get the development cycles down to more human levels.
- tomp 8y agoYou seem to be fairly knowledgeable about all this and/or have thought about it long and hard. Do you have any idea, how would one apply the same kind of process to building a moon lander? Also, do you have any further links to the kinds of organisational structure that SpaceX has, which I think is the main advantage over traditional organisations like NASA, Airbus, ULA (well, in addition to having someone crazy like Musk - it's been said that SpaceX has enough amazing engineers that they'd probably be flying and landing rockets even without him, but the probably wouldn't be landing them on water)? Like those YouTube interview you mention, or how they manage risks, etc. Feel free to email me, this is a very fascinating discussion for me.
- hef19898 8y agoMaybe I can prvide some insight into Airbus (as a whole, not the civilian aircraft section). It is important to know that Airbus is an inherently political company. It was founded as the result of a political initiative. That resulted in, among other things, a rediculous work-share distribution between countries and within. Also the national entities are totally ad odds with each other. One example can be the A380 delay because they moved the toilets for one customer from one side to the other. The German design team that did so did not tell the French team responsible for the wiring and they did not use a common software. The reault was a couple of months of delay. Now imagine the same thing playing out on every level for every project. More relevant for SpaceX is Ariane Space. There it is Airbus plus every other ESA country. When you do the same thing without political interference you are faster. Another example is the A400M, Airbus military tranport plane. They almost screwed the program and ruined Airbus military aircraft business by insisting, politically, on a European developed turboprop engine. And this political incursions into design can be seen all over the place. EDIT: I just realized I talked a lot about aircraft. Seems I'm still confused by EADS now being Airbus and Airbus (EADS times) is now part of Airbus (old EADS)...