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At the risk of sounding like someone you might not want to have a conversation with, forgive me but I must ask, what the hell are you talking about? I doubt BF

At the risk of sounding like someone you might not want to have a conversation with, forgive me but I must ask, what the hell are you talking about? I doubt BFR even exists outside of graphics renditions. You shouldn't believe everything Elon says, given that he is obviously biased towards his company and has a vested interest in generating hype for it. And people for some reason lap it up no matter how unreasonable and utterly idiotic his claims. Don't forget, Elon's credibility is at an all time low. SpaceX has yet to put a man or woman on ISS or even LEO. Mars colonization is well beyond their technical capabilities even if there is a market for it. No matter how much Elon may want it. Wishing something to be true doesn't magically make it true, otherwise Carmen Electra would be my wife right now. NASA for example didn't start by putting a man on the moon. Space exploration is a dangerous, slow, expensive, stepwise process. They did mercury, gemini, and then finally Apollo. And even before landing on the moon there were many flights prior to that. Some were on earth, testing the capabilities of the LEM in LEO, some were on the ground, and some were in lunar orbit like Apollo 8. We are nowhere near the technical capabilities of Mars colonization and if Elon implies that we are, ask for hard evidence of the capabilities of his technology rather than just drinking the Kool aid. Having a great vision doesn't mean you can execute on it.

mschuster91 8y ago
> And even before landing on the moon there were many flights prior to that. And SpaceX can (and does!) use the knowledge from all those missions, including the various rovers and other Mars missions. That's partially a reason why SpaceX can work at all. They have access to all the knowledge that NASA and ESA spent billions and billions of dollars on, and the flexibility of being private and not bound to usual molasses-slow government processes as well as changing administrations with changing desires. SpaceX as a result has both a higher rate of development and higher focus, as they can keep R&D/construction/ops concentrated and not spread around the whole US for "political" (aka senator money coffers) reasons. NASA always has to take politics into account, SpaceX can freely allocate funds wherever they believe is best for progress.
- computerex 8y ago
  You are absolutely correct in that SpaceX has access to tons of research conducted by NASA/ESA and other space agencies. However, BFS is fundamentally different than what Apollo did. Arguably, developing a rocket capable of providing the required amount of delta-v to achieve free return trajectory around the moon or Mars is the easy part in a crewed mission. Hell, the BFR in the proposed specs is only slightly stronger than Saturn V and that was half a century ago. The hardest part is man rating the whole thing. That takes a lot of time.
  - tigershark 8y ago
    Seriously? 61.8MN is just “slightly stronger” than 35.1MN? I guess that no one would call something almost twice as powerful “slightly stronger”, but looking at your other comments you are here just to spread misinformation about space x.
    - computerex 8y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V You realize that BFR is much heavier than the Saturn V stack, right? The thrust means nothing. Look at the effective payload weight. Yes the thrust is higher, but it weighs nearly 1.5 times more so it can't haul as much payload. Notice how the payload to LEO is less than the Saturn V. I am not spreading misinformation. I'm here to educate.
      - mikeash 8y ago
        For an apples to apples comparison, you need to include the BFS itself in the “mass to orbit” number. Or subtract the mass of Apollo from Saturn V’s.
        maxerickson 8y ago
        The payload is such an interesting comparison that there is a word for it. The wikipedia articles give 100,000 kg for the BFR and 140,000 kg for the Saturn V. For hundreds of missions, the BFR strategy of refueling to leave orbit probably makes sense, but it's pretty clear which rocket puts more payload in a 90 mile orbit, a very direct comparison of launch capability. And of course, BFR may exceed projections (or fail to meet them).
mikeash 8y ago
“I doubt BFR even exists outside of graphics renditions.” They already have sections of BFS built. They showed a photo of that Japanese guy who bought a trip around the moon standing in one. Gwynne Shotwell (the sensible one, not Musk) is talking about doing test hops late next year. They’ve been test-firing the engine for a long time. So: what the hell are you talking about?
- computerex 8y ago
  Where's your proof?
  - JoshCole 8y ago
    You can find videos documenting these things on the spacex website in the presentation that was given announcing the first commercial trip around the moon. You can also find videos documenting the firing of the engine in earlier tests years back in videos introducing the BFR and ITS. Also, since you seem extremely ignorant of SpaceX, I also recommend you watch videos documenting the landing of the two boosters of Falcon Heavy, so that you might better understand the sense of optimism which the company's accomplishments have generated. It is, to put it lightly, incredibly inspiring.
    - computerex 8y ago
      If you're talking about this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ Then you're proving my point that the rocket doesn't exist outside of CGI. Musk himself said that they haven't even built out the prototype fairings yet. The engine has been fired for 1200 seconds as per Wikipedia but I can't find a source for it. Also, this isn't technical documentation, it's the sort of thing that'd impress people ignorant about the complexities of spaceflight. You are wrong that I am ignorant of SpaceX. I watched the landing of the Falcon Heavy boosters and even saw the core crash into the ocean on the day of the test launch. Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a debbie downer. However, I am a skeptic and Musk continues to over promise and under deliver across all of his ventures. He continuously makes promises he won't be able to fulfill. Like this one: "We will make one of the mini-sub/pod going all the way to Cave 5 no problemo. Sorry pedo guy, you really did ask for it" I love spaceflight and have loved it all my life. I think the hype that SpaceX has generated is amazing. But that doesn't mean that we should suddenly throw aside our thinking hats. Hype generated on the basis of falsehoods is wrong.
MPSimmons 8y ago
This is one of those threads that I hope I never lose track of, so that I can re-read it in a few years and laugh. Thank you, from future me.
- computerex 8y ago
  Here's hoping the same. I wish and hope Mars colonization happens in my lifetime. Of course I wish that. You should consider bookmarking the thread.
- GW150914 8y ago
  The irony of course is that all participants here feel the same, but with different conclusions. It’s a shame thst we couldn’t have a functional conversation without derailing into what amounts to faith based arguments, but there we are. In a few years let’s have some fun looking back on this, and while we’re at it here’s another for the bin: Hyperloop as a vactrain will never happen.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
nickik 8y ago
I'm sorry but you are embracing yourself. I seem to have really strong opinion on things that you really don't seem to know much about. > I doubt BFR even exists outside of graphics renditions. We know what exists and what doesn't. The most important thing about a rocket is a new engine, and they have showed videos of it firing 3 years ago and have since then shown many more videos of it firing for different duration and so on. They have bought a factor and they have shown of structural tools to build the frame of the BFR. They have started to construct sections. The have already build and tested a carbon fiber tank for example. So, yes, it doesn't exists yet but they are very clearly building it and working on it right now. Its not some hype where everybody just believes Elon because he has a mindspell on everybody, they are actually showing of hardware all the time. > Mars colonization is well beyond their technical capabilities even if there is a market for it. Mars colonization is incredibly difficult and of course it is outside their technical capability, and everybody including Elon would agree with you. The important point is that they are working towards resolving this, unlike most people. > NASA for example didn't start by putting a man on the moon. Space exploration is a dangerous, slow, expensive, stepwise process. They did mercury, gemini, and then finally Apollo. Yes and SpaceX started with the Falcon 1, then the Falcon 9, then Falcon Heavy and then BFR. The also started with Dragon 1 then made that reusable, now they are building Dragon 2 (Cargo and Crew) and they will fly those for a couple of years. And they are working on the next generation after that with the BFS. They will start by sending humans to the space station, then around the moon and probably do some other stuff before sending people to mars. Your narrative that they are ignorant and just make a mars shot is false, the have a very deliberate and systematic growth in their capabilities. Raptor: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7kqFt3nID4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7kqFt3nID4 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb2IEU1taFs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb2IEU1taFs - https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=45m30s https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=45m30s Tank: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93rBH4Ysb8Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93rBH4Ysb8Y Structure: - https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=44m40s https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=44m40s Your constant claims that everybody is just "drinking the Kool aid" and your the only one smart enough to understand what is really going on is just false. I and others understand exactly what SpaceX current capabilities are, what they are doing in the short term and what they are devloping in the longer term. That's why we are exited.
- 8y ago

mschuster91 8y ago

> And even before landing on the moon there were many flights prior to that. And SpaceX can (and does!) use the knowledge from all those missions, including the various rovers and other Mars missions. That's partially a reason why SpaceX can work at all. They have access to all the knowledge that NASA and ESA spent billions and billions of dollars on, and the flexibility of being private and not bound to usual molasses-slow government processes as well as changing administrations with changing desires. SpaceX as a result has both a higher rate of development and higher focus, as they can keep R&D/construction/ops concentrated and not spread around the whole US for "political" (aka senator money coffers) reasons. NASA always has to take politics into account, SpaceX can freely allocate funds wherever they believe is best for progress.

computerex 8y ago
You are absolutely correct in that SpaceX has access to tons of research conducted by NASA/ESA and other space agencies. However, BFS is fundamentally different than what Apollo did. Arguably, developing a rocket capable of providing the required amount of delta-v to achieve free return trajectory around the moon or Mars is the easy part in a crewed mission. Hell, the BFR in the proposed specs is only slightly stronger than Saturn V and that was half a century ago. The hardest part is man rating the whole thing. That takes a lot of time.
- tigershark 8y ago
  Seriously? 61.8MN is just “slightly stronger” than 35.1MN? I guess that no one would call something almost twice as powerful “slightly stronger”, but looking at your other comments you are here just to spread misinformation about space x.
  - computerex 8y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V You realize that BFR is much heavier than the Saturn V stack, right? The thrust means nothing. Look at the effective payload weight. Yes the thrust is higher, but it weighs nearly 1.5 times more so it can't haul as much payload. Notice how the payload to LEO is less than the Saturn V. I am not spreading misinformation. I'm here to educate.
    - mikeash 8y ago
      For an apples to apples comparison, you need to include the BFS itself in the “mass to orbit” number. Or subtract the mass of Apollo from Saturn V’s.
      - maxerickson 8y ago
        The payload is such an interesting comparison that there is a word for it. The wikipedia articles give 100,000 kg for the BFR and 140,000 kg for the Saturn V. For hundreds of missions, the BFR strategy of refueling to leave orbit probably makes sense, but it's pretty clear which rocket puts more payload in a 90 mile orbit, a very direct comparison of launch capability. And of course, BFR may exceed projections (or fail to meet them).

mikeash 8y ago

“I doubt BFR even exists outside of graphics renditions.” They already have sections of BFS built. They showed a photo of that Japanese guy who bought a trip around the moon standing in one. Gwynne Shotwell (the sensible one, not Musk) is talking about doing test hops late next year. They’ve been test-firing the engine for a long time. So: what the hell are you talking about?

computerex 8y ago
Where's your proof?
- JoshCole 8y ago
  You can find videos documenting these things on the spacex website in the presentation that was given announcing the first commercial trip around the moon. You can also find videos documenting the firing of the engine in earlier tests years back in videos introducing the BFR and ITS. Also, since you seem extremely ignorant of SpaceX, I also recommend you watch videos documenting the landing of the two boosters of Falcon Heavy, so that you might better understand the sense of optimism which the company's accomplishments have generated. It is, to put it lightly, incredibly inspiring.
  - computerex 8y ago
    If you're talking about this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ Then you're proving my point that the rocket doesn't exist outside of CGI. Musk himself said that they haven't even built out the prototype fairings yet. The engine has been fired for 1200 seconds as per Wikipedia but I can't find a source for it. Also, this isn't technical documentation, it's the sort of thing that'd impress people ignorant about the complexities of spaceflight. You are wrong that I am ignorant of SpaceX. I watched the landing of the Falcon Heavy boosters and even saw the core crash into the ocean on the day of the test launch. Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a debbie downer. However, I am a skeptic and Musk continues to over promise and under deliver across all of his ventures. He continuously makes promises he won't be able to fulfill. Like this one: "We will make one of the mini-sub/pod going all the way to Cave 5 no problemo. Sorry pedo guy, you really did ask for it" I love spaceflight and have loved it all my life. I think the hype that SpaceX has generated is amazing. But that doesn't mean that we should suddenly throw aside our thinking hats. Hype generated on the basis of falsehoods is wrong.

MPSimmons 8y ago

This is one of those threads that I hope I never lose track of, so that I can re-read it in a few years and laugh. Thank you, from future me.

computerex 8y ago
Here's hoping the same. I wish and hope Mars colonization happens in my lifetime. Of course I wish that. You should consider bookmarking the thread.
GW150914 8y ago
The irony of course is that all participants here feel the same, but with different conclusions. It’s a shame thst we couldn’t have a functional conversation without derailing into what amounts to faith based arguments, but there we are. In a few years let’s have some fun looking back on this, and while we’re at it here’s another for the bin: Hyperloop as a vactrain will never happen.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

nickik 8y ago

I'm sorry but you are embracing yourself. I seem to have really strong opinion on things that you really don't seem to know much about. > I doubt BFR even exists outside of graphics renditions. We know what exists and what doesn't. The most important thing about a rocket is a new engine, and they have showed videos of it firing 3 years ago and have since then shown many more videos of it firing for different duration and so on. They have bought a factor and they have shown of structural tools to build the frame of the BFR. They have started to construct sections. The have already build and tested a carbon fiber tank for example. So, yes, it doesn't exists yet but they are very clearly building it and working on it right now. Its not some hype where everybody just believes Elon because he has a mindspell on everybody, they are actually showing of hardware all the time. > Mars colonization is well beyond their technical capabilities even if there is a market for it. Mars colonization is incredibly difficult and of course it is outside their technical capability, and everybody including Elon would agree with you. The important point is that they are working towards resolving this, unlike most people. > NASA for example didn't start by putting a man on the moon. Space exploration is a dangerous, slow, expensive, stepwise process. They did mercury, gemini, and then finally Apollo. Yes and SpaceX started with the Falcon 1, then the Falcon 9, then Falcon Heavy and then BFR. The also started with Dragon 1 then made that reusable, now they are building Dragon 2 (Cargo and Crew) and they will fly those for a couple of years. And they are working on the next generation after that with the BFS. They will start by sending humans to the space station, then around the moon and probably do some other stuff before sending people to mars. Your narrative that they are ignorant and just make a mars shot is false, the have a very deliberate and systematic growth in their capabilities. Raptor: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7kqFt3nID4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7kqFt3nID4 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb2IEU1taFs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb2IEU1taFs - https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=45m30s https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=45m30s Tank: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93rBH4Ysb8Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93rBH4Ysb8Y Structure: - https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=44m40s https://youtu.be/zu7WJD8vpAQ?t=44m40s Your constant claims that everybody is just "drinking the Kool aid" and your the only one smart enough to understand what is really going on is just false. I and others understand exactly what SpaceX current capabilities are, what they are doing in the short term and what they are devloping in the longer term. That's why we are exited.

8y ago