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I'm not a heart doctor. Here's why I am not wary of the Apple Watch: 1. At a societal level, perhaps false positives during screening put undue load on the me
by dhnsmakala 8y ago
I'm not a heart doctor. Here's why I am not wary of the Apple Watch:
1.
At a societal level, perhaps false positives during screening put undue load on the medical system. But as an individual, it makes sense for me to screen for anything that does not take too high of an effort. If there is a false positive, it will be snuffed out in the next test.
2.
Here is a little thought experiment. Lets say the false positive rate is 1%, and you screen 100 people. Then, your total number of tests including repeated tests on false positive subjects will be ~101 on average (the chance of 2 or more false positives is low enough to ignore).
As long as the screening itself is not too much of an effort, then in fact false positives don't add that much load to the system.
So, we should be seeking additional methods for widespread screening rather than worrying about false positive rates.
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I also find the doctors assumption of 10% false positive rates to be a little self serving in his argument. 1 in 10 people with an apple watch are going to be have atrial fibrillation detection? Doubt it.
- anothergoogler 8y agoThat's a lot of words to say that your hunch of a 1% false positive rate is more likely than the heart doctor's hunch of 10%.
- TeMPOraL 8y agoThat would make some sense if we were talking about tests for long-term state, but from what I understand, the test in question detects a potentially rare and irregular event happening. Which means, you can test yourself 100 times, get one indication of a problem, and still not have enough information to be confident that it was a false positive.