3 ms·
An interesting twist: sometimes it may be worth finishing purely for the psychological boost of confidence, or other similar meta, 2nd order effects. I don't h
by dwaltrip 8y ago
An interesting twist: sometimes it may be worth finishing purely for the psychological boost of confidence, or other similar meta, 2nd order effects.
I don't have a good algorithm for knowing when this is the case, but especially for smaller individual-level projects, I think it is probably not that uncommon. It also seems highly context dependent -- e.g. if one hasn't had a win in a while, it should be a larger consideration.
Framed another way: first learn how to finish projects, then learn how to finish the right project.
And of course, there is the problem that all outcomes and evaluations of worthiness have at least some uncertainty, if not significant amounts.
The sunk-cost fallacy is a useful tool, but it isn't always easy to apply in practice.
- daveFNbuck 8y agoThose effects are compatible with a proper understanding of the sunk cost fallacy. The 2nd order effects are future benefits that can make the project worth completing. The point is that it's the magnitude of the benefits you expect to get that matters and not the amount of resources you've already spent.
- dwaltrip 8y agoTotally. But I think 2nd order effects are often underappreciated, and the difficulty of evaluating them does take some of the "oomph" out of the sunk cost fallacy.