6 ms·

His 2020 Campaign Message: The Robots Are Coming

33 points by sndean 8y ago

taneq 8y ago
People looking at the Automatiopocalypse as being the result of advanced AI and super high tech are missing the scary point: We don't need self-driving cars or Turing-test-passing chatbots to put 30% of the population out of work. We just need to finish the roll-out of bog standard dumb automation to supermarket checkouts, airport baggage drops, self-service kiosks, fast food restaurants etc. People at the low end of the market are already scratching for jobs and they're running out of higher land to run to.
- throwawayjava 8y ago
  > People at the low end of the market are already scratching for jobs and they're running out of higher land to run to. It just hit me that the Mythical Man Month might have entail pretty important consequences for the future of mass (un)employment.
- ObsoleteNerd 8y ago
  Couldn't agree more. Self-driving cars are exciting to report on, so get all the attention, but I'm absolutely convinced that general day-to-day automation of award-wage jobs will be the sneaky left hander that shakes society up. When they get supermarket self-checkouts to be as foolproof as staffed checkouts (eg some kind of NFC/RFID based walk-through scanning, and not this current "customer does the work" one that still needs constant assistance and staffing), you're already putting a HUGE number of people out of work. McDonalds has been pushing their automated systems HARD here in Australia, with all kinds of perks if you use their app or in-store touchscreens to order and pay. Our local one in the last couple years alone went from 4-5 staff on front, to 1, maybe 2 in peak. Online grocery shopping is so common here now that I don't know many people who actually go to the shops for their big weekly shop, just to grab a few items for cravings and bits and pieces on the way home from work. Of my 5 closest local friends, 4 do their primary weekly groceries online, whereas a couple years ago it was 1. Ikea does self-checkout now, and sometimes has no staffed checkouts open here, unless you have special needs then they'll open one for you (we're usually dragging kids and prams so they'll open one for us). I now renew my car rego, insurance, license, etc online. Just a few years ago that HAD to be done in person, at the dreaded roads authority. I haven't been in there for a couple years now, and it used to be 2-3 times a year for various things. The robots aren't coming, they're already here.
  - taneq 8y ago
    Exactly. People see the one attendant standing near the self-checkouts and think "See? The jobs are still there!" But there's one attendant. Where are the other five checkout chicks they used to employ? They're not designing automated machinery or coding vision algorithms, that's for sure.
- Pristina 8y ago
  Yeah I know right. Just like how the invention of cars put all those rickshaw driver, horse breeders, horseshoe makers, hayrollers, cart makers, wheelwrights etc. all out of work. The same old busted argument again and again and again and again.... ad infinitum
  - taneq 8y ago
    How many people do you know in any of those industries? You're just making my point. Those jobs (as widespread sources of employment, not hobbies / niches) are gone. The difference this time is that cars can do one job: The job of a horse and cart. There were plenty of other industries for the farriers, wainwrights etc. to move into. There's not that many productive jobs that an unskilled human can do that can't be automated.
mc32 8y ago
He's not wrong. But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will be underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on. Economies with young and growing populations. Western Europe, East Asia and the US will be much less affected than those whose natural populations have not stabilized. You can expect upheaval there from generations with no future either at home or abroad (if Yang's predictions come true). What's surprising to me is that you have two different factions on the left: Traditional pro-labor camp who are worried about this possibility and the new technocratic progressive left which is trying to downplay the possibility.
- taurath 8y ago
  > But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will be underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on. Almost our entire cultural value is based upon labor and hard work being able to make a living for yourself. If you can no longer do so, what happens?
  - mc32 8y ago
    As a non-economist, all one can do is take a stab at an idea. The natural pops of mature economies are decreasing, which eases the pain, but that also means a smaller contributory pop. funding non-workers. Can basic income close the gap? Doubtful. That gap is huuuuge. Bernie is crazy if he thinks radical taxation can cover the gap. Underdeveloped economies may or may not be able to achieve widespread affluence, if there is no natural ladder to climb in an economy. On the other hand their expectations are lower than that of the pops in mature economies. Still, it seems calamitous. Still, if his prediction plays out, then pain lies ahead. If it's slow coming like the one Japan is virtually experiencing, it may be palatable, to a great degree.
Glyptodon 8y ago
I continue to worry that housing supply might need to be addressed in most major urban areas for basic income type proposals to work at all.
013a 8y ago
Everyone keeps saying that automation will mean we have/get to work less. People were saying it in 1900. People were saying it in 1950. People were saying it in 2000. People are saying it in 2018. Still waiting for those unemployment numbers to not be the lowest they've been in recent history. Turns out people rather like working, at least more than the alternative. Most jobs suck. I'm not hoping for or expecting a future without jobs; I'm hopeful for a future with better jobs.
- senectus1 8y ago
  if robots are going to push people out of work, then how will people earn money to buy the things that the expensive robots will make? Its not zero sum.
  - mirceal 8y ago
    Pay the robots a wage. Robots will buy things. /s
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
  - Fricken 8y ago
    Back in the 70s computers were going to put all the clerk's out of work, yet here we are 40 years later, computers are everywhere, and yet we have more information workers than ever before. There are more people sitting at computer terminals today than there were people pushing pencils back before the computer revolution. The whole conspiracy to eliminate all those jobs completely backfired, we just kept finding new things to do.
- taneq 8y ago
  The problem is that automation (like mechanization before it) is easiest to apply to simple repetitive jobs. The remaining jobs are 'knowledge jobs' like engineering, project management etc. which require a specialized understanding of the work (often on a project-by-project basis) in order to perform it. You need one individual (or a small group) who are responsible for 100% of a project, or the communication overheads become massive and the work becomes intractable. Which is why we have what we have now - a few overworked people doing stupid hours trying to hold everything together, and a lot of underemployed / unemployed people who can't break in because they don't have the skills or proven track record required.
mooneater 8y ago
I believe him, but i think it will be hard to win the popular with that platform. Voters are not known for planning ahead.
grzm 8y ago
Earlier discussion (7 months ago, 37 points, over 30 comments): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566
HIPisTheAnswer 8y ago
Is he also going to ban the internet do create millions of jobs by reopening the pony express?

33 points by sndean 8y ago

People looking at the Automatiopocalypse as being the result of advanced AI and super high tech are missing the scary point: We don't need self-driving cars or Turing-test-passing chatbots to put 30% of the population out of work. We just need to finish the roll-out of bog standard dumb automation to supermarket checkouts, airport baggage drops, self-service kiosks, fast food restaurants etc. People at the low end of the market are already scratching for jobs and they're running out of higher land to run to.

throwawayjava 8y ago
> People at the low end of the market are already scratching for jobs and they're running out of higher land to run to. It just hit me that the Mythical Man Month might have entail pretty important consequences for the future of mass (un)employment.
ObsoleteNerd 8y ago
Couldn't agree more. Self-driving cars are exciting to report on, so get all the attention, but I'm absolutely convinced that general day-to-day automation of award-wage jobs will be the sneaky left hander that shakes society up. When they get supermarket self-checkouts to be as foolproof as staffed checkouts (eg some kind of NFC/RFID based walk-through scanning, and not this current "customer does the work" one that still needs constant assistance and staffing), you're already putting a HUGE number of people out of work. McDonalds has been pushing their automated systems HARD here in Australia, with all kinds of perks if you use their app or in-store touchscreens to order and pay. Our local one in the last couple years alone went from 4-5 staff on front, to 1, maybe 2 in peak. Online grocery shopping is so common here now that I don't know many people who actually go to the shops for their big weekly shop, just to grab a few items for cravings and bits and pieces on the way home from work. Of my 5 closest local friends, 4 do their primary weekly groceries online, whereas a couple years ago it was 1. Ikea does self-checkout now, and sometimes has no staffed checkouts open here, unless you have special needs then they'll open one for you (we're usually dragging kids and prams so they'll open one for us). I now renew my car rego, insurance, license, etc online. Just a few years ago that HAD to be done in person, at the dreaded roads authority. I haven't been in there for a couple years now, and it used to be 2-3 times a year for various things. The robots aren't coming, they're already here.
- taneq 8y ago
  Exactly. People see the one attendant standing near the self-checkouts and think "See? The jobs are still there!" But there's one attendant. Where are the other five checkout chicks they used to employ? They're not designing automated machinery or coding vision algorithms, that's for sure.
Pristina 8y ago
Yeah I know right. Just like how the invention of cars put all those rickshaw driver, horse breeders, horseshoe makers, hayrollers, cart makers, wheelwrights etc. all out of work. The same old busted argument again and again and again and again.... ad infinitum
- taneq 8y ago
  How many people do you know in any of those industries? You're just making my point. Those jobs (as widespread sources of employment, not hobbies / niches) are gone. The difference this time is that cars can do one job: The job of a horse and cart. There were plenty of other industries for the farriers, wainwrights etc. to move into. There's not that many productive jobs that an unskilled human can do that can't be automated.

mc32 8y ago

He's not wrong. But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will be underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on. Economies with young and growing populations. Western Europe, East Asia and the US will be much less affected than those whose natural populations have not stabilized. You can expect upheaval there from generations with no future either at home or abroad (if Yang's predictions come true). What's surprising to me is that you have two different factions on the left: Traditional pro-labor camp who are worried about this possibility and the new technocratic progressive left which is trying to downplay the possibility.

taurath 8y ago
> But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will be underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on. Almost our entire cultural value is based upon labor and hard work being able to make a living for yourself. If you can no longer do so, what happens?
- mc32 8y ago
  As a non-economist, all one can do is take a stab at an idea. The natural pops of mature economies are decreasing, which eases the pain, but that also means a smaller contributory pop. funding non-workers. Can basic income close the gap? Doubtful. That gap is huuuuge. Bernie is crazy if he thinks radical taxation can cover the gap. Underdeveloped economies may or may not be able to achieve widespread affluence, if there is no natural ladder to climb in an economy. On the other hand their expectations are lower than that of the pops in mature economies. Still, it seems calamitous. Still, if his prediction plays out, then pain lies ahead. If it's slow coming like the one Japan is virtually experiencing, it may be palatable, to a great degree.

Glyptodon 8y ago

I continue to worry that housing supply might need to be addressed in most major urban areas for basic income type proposals to work at all.

013a 8y ago

Everyone keeps saying that automation will mean we have/get to work less. People were saying it in 1900. People were saying it in 1950. People were saying it in 2000. People are saying it in 2018. Still waiting for those unemployment numbers to not be the lowest they've been in recent history. Turns out people rather like working, at least more than the alternative. Most jobs suck. I'm not hoping for or expecting a future without jobs; I'm hopeful for a future with better jobs.

senectus1 8y ago
if robots are going to push people out of work, then how will people earn money to buy the things that the expensive robots will make? Its not zero sum.
- mirceal 8y ago
  Pay the robots a wage. Robots will buy things. /s
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- Fricken 8y ago
  Back in the 70s computers were going to put all the clerk's out of work, yet here we are 40 years later, computers are everywhere, and yet we have more information workers than ever before. There are more people sitting at computer terminals today than there were people pushing pencils back before the computer revolution. The whole conspiracy to eliminate all those jobs completely backfired, we just kept finding new things to do.
taneq 8y ago
The problem is that automation (like mechanization before it) is easiest to apply to simple repetitive jobs. The remaining jobs are 'knowledge jobs' like engineering, project management etc. which require a specialized understanding of the work (often on a project-by-project basis) in order to perform it. You need one individual (or a small group) who are responsible for 100% of a project, or the communication overheads become massive and the work becomes intractable. Which is why we have what we have now - a few overworked people doing stupid hours trying to hold everything together, and a lot of underemployed / unemployed people who can't break in because they don't have the skills or proven track record required.

mooneater 8y ago

I believe him, but i think it will be hard to win the popular with that platform. Voters are not known for planning ahead.

grzm 8y ago

Earlier discussion (7 months ago, 37 points, over 30 comments): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566

HIPisTheAnswer 8y ago

Is he also going to ban the internet do create millions of jobs by reopening the pony express?