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I dont think this article has much merit for a few reasons. The two category of Jobs that are outsourced to India or other developing world are Either service o

I dont think this article has much merit for a few reasons. The two category of Jobs that are outsourced to India or other developing world are Either service oriented or Manufacturing oriented. For Instance The service oriented jobs in India like Customer support and Offshore Software development cannot be yet replaced by AI. Customer Support is trouble shooting driven and Software Development is innovation driven, the latter would take decades to be replaced by AI, at which point all the Jobs would have been anyway replaced by AI. The first category though could be replaced in the next decade or so. The automation in manufacturing can replace some redundant jobs but not all of them as evidenced by Teslas Manufacturing fiasco where they tried to automate everything leading upto a delay, as humans are more dexterous and can do some tasks much better than Robots. So I dont see how AI has reached the point which this article claims can replace human labour yet.

candiodari 8y ago
> For Instance The service oriented jobs in India like Customer support and Offshore Software development cannot be yet replaced by AI Customer support is troubleshooting driven ? Heh. You must not have used it for a while. But aside from that. Let's say that it is. That essentially consists of 2 problems: 1) voice recognition 2) query answering based on freeform text (1) is solved, (2) is proving a little tougher, but pretty nice progress is being made. > The automation in manufacturing can replace some redundant jobs but not all of them Sure, at this point AI is slowly becoming a force multiplier for manufacturing. What a factory can do with one employee will steadily go up. The issue is that currently this multiplier will kill a LOT of jobs. Let's say an employee productivity doubles (you only need 1 employee to do what 2 used to do), how many jobs does that destroy ? About a billion. Granted, it will take 15-30 years for that to actually happen, but there'll be an initial spike (let's say rapidly dropping 100 million jobs) and a slower but steadier increase over time until we hit that number. Of course over 30 years the multiplier is not going to be 2, but hundreds. So another 30 years after that, manufacturing will have 2-10% of the population employed, no more, like agriculture today.

candiodari 8y ago

> For Instance The service oriented jobs in India like Customer support and Offshore Software development cannot be yet replaced by AI Customer support is troubleshooting driven ? Heh. You must not have used it for a while. But aside from that. Let's say that it is. That essentially consists of 2 problems: 1) voice recognition 2) query answering based on freeform text (1) is solved, (2) is proving a little tougher, but pretty nice progress is being made. > The automation in manufacturing can replace some redundant jobs but not all of them Sure, at this point AI is slowly becoming a force multiplier for manufacturing. What a factory can do with one employee will steadily go up. The issue is that currently this multiplier will kill a LOT of jobs. Let's say an employee productivity doubles (you only need 1 employee to do what 2 used to do), how many jobs does that destroy ? About a billion. Granted, it will take 15-30 years for that to actually happen, but there'll be an initial spike (let's say rapidly dropping 100 million jobs) and a slower but steadier increase over time until we hit that number. Of course over 30 years the multiplier is not going to be 2, but hundreds. So another 30 years after that, manufacturing will have 2-10% of the population employed, no more, like agriculture today.