4 ms·

Owned by Paddy Power. Not surprised they are welching on the bet, they make a great play on what good sports they are in their advertising but will ban you if y

Owned by Paddy Power. Not surprised they are welching on the bet, they make a great play on what good sports they are in their advertising but will ban you if you show signs of not being a complete mug.

barrkel 8y ago
It looks to be usual practice across the industry in the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/aug/02/betting-horses-gambling-bookmakers-accounts-closed https://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/aug/02/betting-horse...
- barking 8y ago
  That article mentions Barney Curley, I'd recommend his book giving a little back. In it he documents a coup he pulled off against the bookies on a horse running at a small English course Cartmel in the 70s iirc. The key point was that there was just one telephone at the course. Most bets are settled at SP which is the on-course starting price. If the big chains are getting a lot of money on a horse they'll get their agents to put money on that horse at the course to bring the price down and reduce their liability. On that day Curley's people put a fortune of money on before they bookies realised there was something up. They hid it by betting in doubles where there's less scrutiny but then they pulled the other horses out of races which had the effect of converting those bets into singles. The routine would be for the on-course agent to phone head office to see what they had to do. On that day, Curley had a burly crony hogging the phonebox as he tried to keep up with the health of his aunt who'd been taken ill. No one was able to shift him until the race went off.
  - barking 8y ago
    I just looked it up and I think I was confusing two different events. Curley's coup was at bellewstown in Ireland while he wasn't involved with the Cartmel one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Future https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Future
kevindqc 8y ago
I worked for a betting company for a bit, and they actually liked people who were great at betting. They get flagged along with the sport/league they are good at, and the traders used these people to adjust their lines. If someone bets and wins often on a specific sport/league, and they make a big bet for it that doesn't really make sense, maybe the line is wrong or that person knows something everyone else doesn't.
- barking 8y ago
  That's why I'm very suspicious of Paddy Power's ownership of betfair. They won't ban people there because their angle is as a broker working earning commission but they do potentially gain insider knowledge that they can then apply in their conventional business.
  - subjectHarold 8y ago
    "Insider knowledge" isn't illegal and they couldn't care less what the outcome is. They make money by attracting customers who aren't sophisticated. If they want to know what the "right" price is, they just look at the Asian books (they don't employ people to help predict outcomes either).
    - barking 8y ago
      maybe you're right but it being a well documented fact that they discourage successful punters to the extent of circulating photographs to betting shops makes me wonder. If someone is doing unusually well on their exchange why wouldn't they use that data, PP are extremely good at maximising every edge they have.
      - subjectHarold 8y ago
        Again, because that information isn't useful. It is useful if you care about the result...but if you are bookie, you don't. You look at the line on the Asian books or Pinnacle, that is the correct price (and is unbeatable for 99.9% of people). You make money on marking up that line to punters. PP's edge is marketing. They don't care about creating an edge because they know they don't have any, they are the most unsophisticated actors in the market (apart from punters). Their only concern is an unbalanced book (which occurs frequently in the UK due to the popularity of 1x2). You also misunderstand what "successful punter" means. I have been banned from almost every major online book in the UK, they have no problem with people winning. If you are winning on their lines in a big liquid market, they really couldn't care less. They markup 5-10%, most syndicates can't beat that line so it is very unlikely that a random punter can. The problem is arbitrage (it is even worse in store). If you picked every winner this weekend in the EPL and won £100k, you wouldn't get limited...they would welcome you with open arms. If you put £1 on a price that is soft against Asian book, you will get banned instantly and your bets voided. If you are sharp (much less than ~1% of the gambling population are), you will get limited but this is because most bookies can't provide the liquidity that sharps need. Again, their edge is marketing. They make money on the EPL or NFL. If you come along wanting £10k on Colo-Colo in the Chilean Primeria, they know they aren't going to make money on that. Asian bookies do respond to liquidity and will move their lines when the smart money comes in (that is how they make money). UK bookies don't (that can't make money doing that).
subjectHarold 8y ago
That is the business model. How do you think they make money?If you want to bet in volume at better prices, use exchanges or an Asian book. But their business model is to spend a lot on marketing to attract unsophisticated customers and make it back on bad prices.

barrkel 8y ago

It looks to be usual practice across the industry in the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/aug/02/betting-horses-gambling-bookmakers-accounts-closed https://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/aug/02/betting-horse...

barking 8y ago
That article mentions Barney Curley, I'd recommend his book giving a little back. In it he documents a coup he pulled off against the bookies on a horse running at a small English course Cartmel in the 70s iirc. The key point was that there was just one telephone at the course. Most bets are settled at SP which is the on-course starting price. If the big chains are getting a lot of money on a horse they'll get their agents to put money on that horse at the course to bring the price down and reduce their liability. On that day Curley's people put a fortune of money on before they bookies realised there was something up. They hid it by betting in doubles where there's less scrutiny but then they pulled the other horses out of races which had the effect of converting those bets into singles. The routine would be for the on-course agent to phone head office to see what they had to do. On that day, Curley had a burly crony hogging the phonebox as he tried to keep up with the health of his aunt who'd been taken ill. No one was able to shift him until the race went off.
- barking 8y ago
  I just looked it up and I think I was confusing two different events. Curley's coup was at bellewstown in Ireland while he wasn't involved with the Cartmel one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Future https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Future

kevindqc 8y ago

I worked for a betting company for a bit, and they actually liked people who were great at betting. They get flagged along with the sport/league they are good at, and the traders used these people to adjust their lines. If someone bets and wins often on a specific sport/league, and they make a big bet for it that doesn't really make sense, maybe the line is wrong or that person knows something everyone else doesn't.

barking 8y ago
That's why I'm very suspicious of Paddy Power's ownership of betfair. They won't ban people there because their angle is as a broker working earning commission but they do potentially gain insider knowledge that they can then apply in their conventional business.
- subjectHarold 8y ago
  "Insider knowledge" isn't illegal and they couldn't care less what the outcome is. They make money by attracting customers who aren't sophisticated. If they want to know what the "right" price is, they just look at the Asian books (they don't employ people to help predict outcomes either).
  - barking 8y ago
    maybe you're right but it being a well documented fact that they discourage successful punters to the extent of circulating photographs to betting shops makes me wonder. If someone is doing unusually well on their exchange why wouldn't they use that data, PP are extremely good at maximising every edge they have.
    - subjectHarold 8y ago
      Again, because that information isn't useful. It is useful if you care about the result...but if you are bookie, you don't. You look at the line on the Asian books or Pinnacle, that is the correct price (and is unbeatable for 99.9% of people). You make money on marking up that line to punters. PP's edge is marketing. They don't care about creating an edge because they know they don't have any, they are the most unsophisticated actors in the market (apart from punters). Their only concern is an unbalanced book (which occurs frequently in the UK due to the popularity of 1x2). You also misunderstand what "successful punter" means. I have been banned from almost every major online book in the UK, they have no problem with people winning. If you are winning on their lines in a big liquid market, they really couldn't care less. They markup 5-10%, most syndicates can't beat that line so it is very unlikely that a random punter can. The problem is arbitrage (it is even worse in store). If you picked every winner this weekend in the EPL and won £100k, you wouldn't get limited...they would welcome you with open arms. If you put £1 on a price that is soft against Asian book, you will get banned instantly and your bets voided. If you are sharp (much less than ~1% of the gambling population are), you will get limited but this is because most bookies can't provide the liquidity that sharps need. Again, their edge is marketing. They make money on the EPL or NFL. If you come along wanting £10k on Colo-Colo in the Chilean Primeria, they know they aren't going to make money on that. Asian bookies do respond to liquidity and will move their lines when the smart money comes in (that is how they make money). UK bookies don't (that can't make money doing that).

subjectHarold 8y ago

That is the business model. How do you think they make money?If you want to bet in volume at better prices, use exchanges or an Asian book. But their business model is to spend a lot on marketing to attract unsophisticated customers and make it back on bad prices.