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And the US will quickly run out of goods that they can selectively tariff that will not immediately and harshly hurt the broad public in a clearly visible way.

And the US will quickly run out of goods that they can selectively tariff that will not immediately and harshly hurt the broad public in a clearly visible way. You already see that in this recent round - Apple gadgets being exempted from the tax is not a random coincidence. The problem is: the entire US consumer population is addicted to electronics, and the only place where modern consumer electronics can be manufactured at scale today is China. Not because of cheap labor (there are actually way cheaper places today), but because the complex production chains necessary to even get all the parts to a single place for final assembly are all door-by-door in places like Shenzhen. Even if there was a serious intent to move these production chains to the US to escape tariffs, it will take multiple decades to do so and will require extremely high up-front investments. And nobody will start such an endeavor during a phase of special tariffs put in place by a president basically for personal reasons, without serious support even from his own party - a president that will eventually stumble over its own foolishness and thus probably not even reach the end of his theoretical 8-year "lifespan" (which, again, would not suffice when we're talking about a process that spans decades). So, effectively, the US presidents' capability to impose tariffs end when he arrives at consumer electronics goods. Because his reality distortion field is not capable of making his followers just accept prices of iPhones, Apple Watches, TVs and countless other "Made in China" gadgets to rise by 25%. The good thing about a bunch of mindless zealots on Twitter and Facebook is, after all, that they hugely depend on smartphones, computers and cheap plastic routers, and the good thing about Fox News addicts is that they can't watch Fox News without a TV set.

cinquemb 8y ago
Idk, I see it hard for there to be riots in the street because electronics go up a bit, unless one subscribes to the Jamie Dimon's train of thought: “‘It’s not right to say we’re worse off,’ Dimon said [last September 17] at an event in Detroit in response to a question about declining median income. ‘If you go back 20 years ago, cars were worse, health was worse, you didn’t live as long, the air was worse. People didn’t have iPhones.’”[0] Though I do see it being a bloodbath on the stock market (that significant portion of adults have 0 exposure to compared to the wealthy) if iPhones become non exempt, possibly a ringing bell for market top (ignoring that unit sales have already been declining since 2015) of this 10 year bull market and experiment with ZLB interest rates. [0] https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/29/let-them-eat-iphones/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/29/let-them-eat-iphones...
- village-idiot 8y ago
  There doesn’t have to be riots for China to succeed at this, they just need a large democratic victory. They know that the democrats will try and put an end to the trade war if they control congress.
  - cinquemb 8y ago
    Even if there is a large democratic victory and top of that, if the political establishment manages to turn everything around the under the watch of the current present (or the next), if they still cant address the issues that have been building for decades in the US, they'll have a field day when next aristocrat takes office on nationalistic pandering. The trade war™ is a symptom of a larger problem that neither major political party has been bothering to address for the past couple of decades because major backers have been profiting very well of it personally. China and the US have bigger problems looming than this trade war™. I find it really hilarious that x% more expensive electronics that people don't really need year after year is the rallying cry to wreck in into the voting booth.
gonvaled 8y ago
> Apple gadgets being exempted from the tax is not a random coincidence Isn't this something that competitors could complain about, even legally on US courts?

cinquemb 8y ago

Idk, I see it hard for there to be riots in the street because electronics go up a bit, unless one subscribes to the Jamie Dimon's train of thought: “‘It’s not right to say we’re worse off,’ Dimon said [last September 17] at an event in Detroit in response to a question about declining median income. ‘If you go back 20 years ago, cars were worse, health was worse, you didn’t live as long, the air was worse. People didn’t have iPhones.’”[0] Though I do see it being a bloodbath on the stock market (that significant portion of adults have 0 exposure to compared to the wealthy) if iPhones become non exempt, possibly a ringing bell for market top (ignoring that unit sales have already been declining since 2015) of this 10 year bull market and experiment with ZLB interest rates. [0] https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/29/let-them-eat-iphones/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/29/let-them-eat-iphones...

village-idiot 8y ago
There doesn’t have to be riots for China to succeed at this, they just need a large democratic victory. They know that the democrats will try and put an end to the trade war if they control congress.
- cinquemb 8y ago
  Even if there is a large democratic victory and top of that, if the political establishment manages to turn everything around the under the watch of the current present (or the next), if they still cant address the issues that have been building for decades in the US, they'll have a field day when next aristocrat takes office on nationalistic pandering. The trade war™ is a symptom of a larger problem that neither major political party has been bothering to address for the past couple of decades because major backers have been profiting very well of it personally. China and the US have bigger problems looming than this trade war™. I find it really hilarious that x% more expensive electronics that people don't really need year after year is the rallying cry to wreck in into the voting booth.

gonvaled 8y ago

> Apple gadgets being exempted from the tax is not a random coincidence Isn't this something that competitors could complain about, even legally on US courts?