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In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though.

In the current legal environment, self driving taxi cabs everywhere at all times will never exist. Waymo seems to think they can work in Arizona desert though. How many deaths per year would be acceptable? Like you mention, in the US, it seems that zero deaths per year, similar to commercial aviation, would be required. It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe. On the other hand, I'm sure people in India or China will be happy to build and deploy them with much higher failure rates. Maybe we can import those to the US someday.

fucking_tragedy 8y ago
> It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe This is a bit of a generous assumption. It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers.
- emodendroket 8y ago
  Right. So many arguments just start from the premise that self-driving cars must be safer and then ask why we aren't racing to replace human drivers with them. In reality the proposition that they are safer is far from proven.
  - a008t 8y ago
    Not to mention that the risk profile is going to be different. When you are driving your car, there is at least the illusion that you are in control of your risks. A careful driver at least believes that their risks are significantly lower than average. Getting into a self-driving car you have no control and are just playing Russian roulette. Not to mention that the failure modes of self-driving cars are likely to be very different from failure modes of humans, making it more difficult for other road users to predict what they would do in any given situation.
- bluGill 8y ago
  We already know that the assumption is correct for a lot of cases. Self driving cars have logged millions of miles on the road. The only question is can we make them work in situations that are hard.
  - Piskvorrr 8y ago
    Meanwhile human-driven cars have driven billions. The only question is can we make them (humans) work in situations that are hard? In other words, "it works until it doesn't" is tautologically true, but useless precisely for that reason.
    - telchar 8y ago
      The answer to your question is basically "no". Humans aren't getting better at driving in the aggregate - new ones are born, learn to drive, get better, then get worse, then die off. On average humans are as good as they're going to get (with small variations due to culture and different training programs). On the other hand the self-driving cars are just getting started. It's entirely reasonable to suppose that they may surpass the average human in the next X years. And they won't get old and confused and eventually replaced with new cars that have to learn from scratch -- they should get more or less monotonically better. I think the optimism is warranted even if the timeline and technology is uncertain.
- landryraccoon 8y ago
  > It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers. This is trivially true. I mean, self driving cars that are worse than human drivers already exist. Isn’t the point asking when they will be made widely available? I assume that is only possible when they are at least as good as human drivers by some key metrics.
  - fucking_tragedy 8y ago
    I agree, the sane assumption should be that self-driving cars would be made widely available if and when they are better than humans at driving. However, I've noticed that many work from the premise that self-driving cars are already safer than human drivers. That, or they'll work from the premise that self-driving cars will definitely be safer than human drivers within a reasonable timespan. Worse, some assume that self-driving cars will dramatically, or nearly eliminate automobile accidents/deaths, where any brief skim over workplace casualties involving autonomous machinery would put that fantasy to rest. For a group of tech workers that often overlap with self-described skeptics, it's an interesting blindspot to have.
YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago
>> On the other hand, I'm sure people in India or China will be happy to build and deploy them with much higher failure rates. You might have seen this internet classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM [India Driving] Driving in India is notoriously chaotic and if self-driving cars are ever deployed there in our lifetime, they will come with a safety guarantee about equal to a car driven by a blind dog with a missing paw. It would be impossible to safely navigate the streets there with anything less situationaly aware than a fully developed adult human brain. The article above makes it sound like weather is the big problem for self-driving cars and once that's solved- wooohoo, we're on our way! It's far from that. Self-driving car AI is still incapable of reasoning about its environment, neither does it have any "undersanding" of it in any way, shape or form. Consequently it only works in very limited environments, in very limited conditions - of traffic, visibility, road quality etc.
- ghaff 8y ago
  You don't need to go to India: (Paris) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lay8aZlsbB0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lay8aZlsbB0 (Manhattan) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8WiJgI3N4A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8WiJgI3N4A
  - falcolas 8y ago
    Don't forget Uber in the US! A fantastic display of man and machine working as one and how they deal with unexpected obstacles.
SiempreViernes 8y ago
How many years per death would be acceptable is highly culture dependent. Uber should ask the NRA for branding advice, though they might not be patient enough to put in the work to reach such an untouchable brand.
- shiftpgdn 8y ago
  My gun isn't controlled by a computer and in fact that is fairly strictly banned by the ATF.
  - SiempreViernes 8y ago
    Ah, so you agree that avoidable deaths from computer controlled systems are viewed as much worse than avoidable deaths from human controlled systems?

fucking_tragedy 8y ago

> It is a bit of a shame that a tech that could save a million lives a year globally won't be deployed because it can't be made perfectly safe This is a bit of a generous assumption. It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers.

emodendroket 8y ago
Right. So many arguments just start from the premise that self-driving cars must be safer and then ask why we aren't racing to replace human drivers with them. In reality the proposition that they are safer is far from proven.
- a008t 8y ago
  Not to mention that the risk profile is going to be different. When you are driving your car, there is at least the illusion that you are in control of your risks. A careful driver at least believes that their risks are significantly lower than average. Getting into a self-driving car you have no control and are just playing Russian roulette. Not to mention that the failure modes of self-driving cars are likely to be very different from failure modes of humans, making it more difficult for other road users to predict what they would do in any given situation.
bluGill 8y ago
We already know that the assumption is correct for a lot of cases. Self driving cars have logged millions of miles on the road. The only question is can we make them work in situations that are hard.
- Piskvorrr 8y ago
  Meanwhile human-driven cars have driven billions. The only question is can we make them (humans) work in situations that are hard? In other words, "it works until it doesn't" is tautologically true, but useless precisely for that reason.
  - telchar 8y ago
    The answer to your question is basically "no". Humans aren't getting better at driving in the aggregate - new ones are born, learn to drive, get better, then get worse, then die off. On average humans are as good as they're going to get (with small variations due to culture and different training programs). On the other hand the self-driving cars are just getting started. It's entirely reasonable to suppose that they may surpass the average human in the next X years. And they won't get old and confused and eventually replaced with new cars that have to learn from scratch -- they should get more or less monotonically better. I think the optimism is warranted even if the timeline and technology is uncertain.
landryraccoon 8y ago
> It very well could turn out that self-driving cars are worse, or no better, than human drivers. This is trivially true. I mean, self driving cars that are worse than human drivers already exist. Isn’t the point asking when they will be made widely available? I assume that is only possible when they are at least as good as human drivers by some key metrics.
- fucking_tragedy 8y ago
  I agree, the sane assumption should be that self-driving cars would be made widely available if and when they are better than humans at driving. However, I've noticed that many work from the premise that self-driving cars are already safer than human drivers. That, or they'll work from the premise that self-driving cars will definitely be safer than human drivers within a reasonable timespan. Worse, some assume that self-driving cars will dramatically, or nearly eliminate automobile accidents/deaths, where any brief skim over workplace casualties involving autonomous machinery would put that fantasy to rest. For a group of tech workers that often overlap with self-described skeptics, it's an interesting blindspot to have.

YeGoblynQueenne 8y ago

>> On the other hand, I'm sure people in India or China will be happy to build and deploy them with much higher failure rates. You might have seen this internet classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM [India Driving] Driving in India is notoriously chaotic and if self-driving cars are ever deployed there in our lifetime, they will come with a safety guarantee about equal to a car driven by a blind dog with a missing paw. It would be impossible to safely navigate the streets there with anything less situationaly aware than a fully developed adult human brain. The article above makes it sound like weather is the big problem for self-driving cars and once that's solved- wooohoo, we're on our way! It's far from that. Self-driving car AI is still incapable of reasoning about its environment, neither does it have any "undersanding" of it in any way, shape or form. Consequently it only works in very limited environments, in very limited conditions - of traffic, visibility, road quality etc.

ghaff 8y ago
You don't need to go to India: (Paris) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lay8aZlsbB0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lay8aZlsbB0 (Manhattan) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8WiJgI3N4A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8WiJgI3N4A
- falcolas 8y ago
  Don't forget Uber in the US! A fantastic display of man and machine working as one and how they deal with unexpected obstacles.

SiempreViernes 8y ago

How many years per death would be acceptable is highly culture dependent. Uber should ask the NRA for branding advice, though they might not be patient enough to put in the work to reach such an untouchable brand.

shiftpgdn 8y ago
My gun isn't controlled by a computer and in fact that is fairly strictly banned by the ATF.
- SiempreViernes 8y ago
  Ah, so you agree that avoidable deaths from computer controlled systems are viewed as much worse than avoidable deaths from human controlled systems?