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"Just as it took decades for us to get supercomputers in our pockets, it will take decades to work through all the engineering problems necessary to build large
by amirhirsch 8y ago
"Just as it took decades for us to get supercomputers in our pockets, it will take decades to work through all the engineering problems necessary to build large-enough quantum computers."
This is not an accurate analogy, and you shouldn't believe that there is a continuous engineering path to practical quantum computing as there was for miniaturization of semiconductors. We understood that there was "plenty of room at the bottom" for semiconductors and classical computation and had "Moore's Law" which pointed to a future with supercomputers in our pocket. However the physics of quantum computation are not so well bounded today, and the author acknowledges that we may not be able to build such quantum computers, and he is placing a bet.
Let me place my bet: error correction will prove intractable for quantum computation, with a recursive relationship between the size and coherence time of a topological qubit, such that the minimum number of particles required to factor N-bit numbers will exceed the number of particles in the universe for an N that is small enough to just keep using RSA on classical computers.
- Strilanc 8y ago> with a recursive relationship between the size and coherence time of a topological qubit "recursive relationship"? What specifically about topological codes makes you think they'll scale so poorly?
- rjzzleep 8y agoThat's such a weird thing to say. It's not like computing as it is now was considered possible in the beginning. I remember sitting with a bunch of the German senior communication networks folks in the tube in Hamburg and they were talking stories of the past, when their professors told them how utterly impossible/ridiculous today's networking is.
- randomsearch 8y agoRidiculous to make such speculation about error correction when it was such a surprise to find it was even possible in the first place. The real answer to most QC questions is “we don’t know”