4 ms·

To play devil's advocate: is the fact that 16-24 year olds hold drastically fewer jobs than in the past really something that can be brushed off? On the face of

by zwkrt 8y ago

To play devil's advocate: is the fact that 16-24 year olds hold drastically fewer jobs than in the past really something that can be brushed off? On the face of it that sounds like people who would otherwise be starting their careers are not able to get a foothold, or otherwise are having to start much later than they otherwise would have. Combined with increased debt load, that statistic seems more like a harbinger of worse things to come.

EpicEng 8y ago
>To play devil's advocate: is the fact that 16-24 year olds hold drastically fewer jobs than in the past really something that can be brushed off? Or perhaps their parents are better off, more people are going to college, so fewer of them are forced to work menial jobs to pay the bills. I have no idea if that's true, but that's kind of the point; you have to dig deeper.
- kurthr 8y ago
  We know that the individual and family incomes for those in the lower 50% (or as much as 90%) of the income distribution have been falling (after inflation) for the last 30 years. So it's not just that their parents are better off... because they are flat to down.
  - sokoloff 8y ago
    I don't see that in the figures that I've gone looking for. https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ suggests that, in inflation adjusted terms, most workers wages are up a modest amount (6%) since 1979, while the 10th percentile workers have declined by 5% in that period.
    - kurthr 8y ago
      The telling plots are figures 2&3, which show wages as stagnant, but not falling during the 2008-10 recession. That is because it plots the wages of those who are working (full time?) and does not account for employment loss or underemployment. The employment to population ratio has fallen 5-6% over the same time period (and 10% from its peak) . It may be recovering somewhat now, but it's not part of the charts and not close to the peak. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio Worse still, comparing to household income, you see that a higher employment ratio is necessary just to maintain the income. That causes childcare, prepared food, and transportation expenses to rise faster than inflation... because even if prices are constant, more people need them. That's ignoring the falling percentage of jobs with insurance and pensions that that also reduce total compensation... it also ignores stock options.
byproxy 8y ago
Could it also be that programs are in place to help students so that they don't have to work while attending school?
- Jtsummers 8y ago
  AKA, student loans. Which create a massive economic drag for those who participate in those programs over a large portion of their working years, and delays their entry into retirement (or increases the demand on community/city/state/federal support programs when they do retire).
- kurthr 8y ago
  There were free school lunches/breakfast and Aid for Dependent Children 30 years ago... those haven't gone away or improved. If anything welfare reform in the 90s reduced low income food security. Maybe you're talking about student loans, but that seems to make the problem worse since the unemployment rate is still higher into the 25 range where they should be getting jobs from their education. It was common for 12-18yr olds to work part time at groceries, fast food, retail, theaters, delivery to earn gas money or save for a car or college/trade. That is largely gone. Those jobs seem to have been taken by desperate adults and seniors.
jimmydddd 8y ago
The 16-18 year old segment of that group is high school kids. In my area, it appears that there are a lot fewer jobs avaialable than when I was that age. For example, my friends and I were all "paper boys" delivering various newspapers. Now I notice middle aged people flinging the papers out of cars. We also used to mow lawns and shovel snow. Those jobs are all taken by professional landscapers. Also, many parents would rather their high school kids did school-related activities than some low wage job.
- convivialdingo 8y ago
  My sons all had trouble finding jobs at 16. Fewer workplaces will hire at that age. Even fast food and other basic labor hires fewer teens these days.
  - pedasmith 8y ago
    As long as we're arguing statistics with personal anecdotes: the dairy queen my younger kid worked at was about 80% teenager, with an attrition rate of wow!. The older kids' jobs at an upscale fast food is also easily 50%+ teenager. Both kids were pretty much hired on the spot with no previous employment.

by zwkrt 8y ago

EpicEng 8y ago

>To play devil's advocate: is the fact that 16-24 year olds hold drastically fewer jobs than in the past really something that can be brushed off? Or perhaps their parents are better off, more people are going to college, so fewer of them are forced to work menial jobs to pay the bills. I have no idea if that's true, but that's kind of the point; you have to dig deeper.

kurthr 8y ago
We know that the individual and family incomes for those in the lower 50% (or as much as 90%) of the income distribution have been falling (after inflation) for the last 30 years. So it's not just that their parents are better off... because they are flat to down.
- sokoloff 8y ago
  I don't see that in the figures that I've gone looking for. https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ suggests that, in inflation adjusted terms, most workers wages are up a modest amount (6%) since 1979, while the 10th percentile workers have declined by 5% in that period.
  - kurthr 8y ago
    The telling plots are figures 2&3, which show wages as stagnant, but not falling during the 2008-10 recession. That is because it plots the wages of those who are working (full time?) and does not account for employment loss or underemployment. The employment to population ratio has fallen 5-6% over the same time period (and 10% from its peak) . It may be recovering somewhat now, but it's not part of the charts and not close to the peak. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio Worse still, comparing to household income, you see that a higher employment ratio is necessary just to maintain the income. That causes childcare, prepared food, and transportation expenses to rise faster than inflation... because even if prices are constant, more people need them. That's ignoring the falling percentage of jobs with insurance and pensions that that also reduce total compensation... it also ignores stock options.

byproxy 8y ago

Could it also be that programs are in place to help students so that they don't have to work while attending school?

Jtsummers 8y ago
AKA, student loans. Which create a massive economic drag for those who participate in those programs over a large portion of their working years, and delays their entry into retirement (or increases the demand on community/city/state/federal support programs when they do retire).
kurthr 8y ago
There were free school lunches/breakfast and Aid for Dependent Children 30 years ago... those haven't gone away or improved. If anything welfare reform in the 90s reduced low income food security. Maybe you're talking about student loans, but that seems to make the problem worse since the unemployment rate is still higher into the 25 range where they should be getting jobs from their education. It was common for 12-18yr olds to work part time at groceries, fast food, retail, theaters, delivery to earn gas money or save for a car or college/trade. That is largely gone. Those jobs seem to have been taken by desperate adults and seniors.

jimmydddd 8y ago

The 16-18 year old segment of that group is high school kids. In my area, it appears that there are a lot fewer jobs avaialable than when I was that age. For example, my friends and I were all "paper boys" delivering various newspapers. Now I notice middle aged people flinging the papers out of cars. We also used to mow lawns and shovel snow. Those jobs are all taken by professional landscapers. Also, many parents would rather their high school kids did school-related activities than some low wage job.

convivialdingo 8y ago
My sons all had trouble finding jobs at 16. Fewer workplaces will hire at that age. Even fast food and other basic labor hires fewer teens these days.
- pedasmith 8y ago
  As long as we're arguing statistics with personal anecdotes: the dairy queen my younger kid worked at was about 80% teenager, with an attrition rate of wow!. The older kids' jobs at an upscale fast food is also easily 50%+ teenager. Both kids were pretty much hired on the spot with no previous employment.