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This seems backwards to me. Shouldn’t we be comparing the performance self-driving cars to the performance of competent human drivers? The variance in human dri

This seems backwards to me. Shouldn’t we be comparing the performance self-driving cars to the performance of competent human drivers? The variance in human driving ability is quite high, which suggests (to me) that self-driving cars will become better than a significant fraction of human drivers well before they become (what I would consider) safe. I personally don’t want to see any more below-average drivers on the road. It’s true that there’s a constant influx of inexperienced human drivers, many of whom (in my opinion) shouldn’t have been granted licenses, but that’s a separate problem. (I’m talking about the US. I’ve read that licensing requirements are more stringent elsewhere, but here in the states we give out driver’s licenses like candy.)

Consultant32452 8y ago
I think you're confusing the end goal with the path towards that goal. Ultimately, yes, we will want to compare AI driven cars against the best human drivers. But right nwo we're trying to determine if AI driven cars should even be allowed on the road. The underlying assumption I'm making is that AI driving improvement is accelerated by being on the real road. If that's true, then we want the cars on the road as soon as reasonable possible. Because I would gladly trade hundreds or even thousands of AI driver caused deaths in the short run if I am reasonably convinced that it will prevent the tens of thousands of human driver caused deaths every year. And I am convinced of that. I also acknowledge I'm in the pool of people who might be killed by the AI driver. Just as we let teen drivers on the road with the expectation they will improve over several years, so should we accept a similar risk from AI drivers. The return is far better for the "inexperienced" AI driver because the AIs will continually improve forever, but as you noted we get a new batch of bad human drivers every day.
- DATACOMMANDER 8y ago
  That’s a fair point. From a utilitarian perspective, I think you’re probably right. Unfortunately, the public will not follow this dispassionate line of reasoning if AI drivers start killing people in “large” numbers, even if there’s strong evidence to support its soundness. It might therefore be best to be just a little less aggressive than would otherwise be optimal, to avoid a public backlash that could—despite being irrational—delay the arrival of competent AI drivers.

Consultant32452 8y ago

I think you're confusing the end goal with the path towards that goal. Ultimately, yes, we will want to compare AI driven cars against the best human drivers. But right nwo we're trying to determine if AI driven cars should even be allowed on the road. The underlying assumption I'm making is that AI driving improvement is accelerated by being on the real road. If that's true, then we want the cars on the road as soon as reasonable possible. Because I would gladly trade hundreds or even thousands of AI driver caused deaths in the short run if I am reasonably convinced that it will prevent the tens of thousands of human driver caused deaths every year. And I am convinced of that. I also acknowledge I'm in the pool of people who might be killed by the AI driver. Just as we let teen drivers on the road with the expectation they will improve over several years, so should we accept a similar risk from AI drivers. The return is far better for the "inexperienced" AI driver because the AIs will continually improve forever, but as you noted we get a new batch of bad human drivers every day.

DATACOMMANDER 8y ago
That’s a fair point. From a utilitarian perspective, I think you’re probably right. Unfortunately, the public will not follow this dispassionate line of reasoning if AI drivers start killing people in “large” numbers, even if there’s strong evidence to support its soundness. It might therefore be best to be just a little less aggressive than would otherwise be optimal, to avoid a public backlash that could—despite being irrational—delay the arrival of competent AI drivers.