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One problem with things like this is the arrogance of the present. We had no idea that electromagnetic energy even existed until the later half of the 19th cent

One problem with things like this is the arrogance of the present. We had no idea that electromagnetic energy even existed until the later half of the 19th century. Even though it had been observed for centuries that lightning strikes could screw with a compass needle, we somehow never managed to put two and two together. Kind of funny in hindsight. Consequently all of our predictions for the future were cast through this lens. So their ideas of futurism was limited to things such as undersea exploration, flying machines, and ideas like covering an entire city in a roof so you wouldn't get wet while walking about. Now we take electromagnetism for granted and can observe it everywhere, as it has always been. Yet the problem with this is that now, in order to have any meaningful discussion of the things of which you're speaking, you have to make the very questionable assumption that there will no longer be similarly revolutionary forces we will discover in the future. And so there comes a question of weighting that. What are the odds of that being true? Our species' entire basis of knowledge is formed, almost exclusively, around observations based on one planet, in one solar system, in one galaxy. Everything else is just reasoning based on incredibly coarse observations of everything else. I think the idea that that we're even remotely close to unlocking the true nature of our universe is not really logical by any measurement other than 'well we're trying really hard and haven't been able to make that next step yet' which has, of course, been true throughout our species entire existence -- until that next step is invariably made. The increasing difficulty does not indicate anything like evidence of approaching an end to revolutionary discovery itself. Yet if we're not at the end then any meaningful big picture or very long term predictions are going to serve as little more than the butt of jokes for those with the opportunity to read such predictions from the future.

cletus 8y ago
The point use that we don't need to assume any new physics or assume any new technology beyond what is considered highly likely for the next century to view Dyson spheres as admission inevitable. We don't even need to assume fusion. New technologies exacerbate this problem rather than solve it. As do new physics. In fact Isaac mentioned multiple times that the inability the apparent absence of evidence of advanced civilizations is the best evidence for there not being FTL travel or communication (as just one example). So while i can agree we don't know everything I'm not sure why it matters.
- TangoTrotFox 8y ago
  This is like in times past a people believing that they could detect any other intelligence by seeing the smokes from their fires. After all how else would they cook their food or create light to see in the dark? A dyson sphere isn't some profound insight into the universe. It's a relatively straight forward idea once we achieve the understanding that we can capture EM energy and convert it into other usable forms of energy. Of course before that revolutionary discovery or EM utilization it's something that would seem completely nonsensical.

cletus 8y ago

The point use that we don't need to assume any new physics or assume any new technology beyond what is considered highly likely for the next century to view Dyson spheres as admission inevitable. We don't even need to assume fusion. New technologies exacerbate this problem rather than solve it. As do new physics. In fact Isaac mentioned multiple times that the inability the apparent absence of evidence of advanced civilizations is the best evidence for there not being FTL travel or communication (as just one example). So while i can agree we don't know everything I'm not sure why it matters.

TangoTrotFox 8y ago
This is like in times past a people believing that they could detect any other intelligence by seeing the smokes from their fires. After all how else would they cook their food or create light to see in the dark? A dyson sphere isn't some profound insight into the universe. It's a relatively straight forward idea once we achieve the understanding that we can capture EM energy and convert it into other usable forms of energy. Of course before that revolutionary discovery or EM utilization it's something that would seem completely nonsensical.