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I made this comment earlier but to me the most logical explanation to the Fermi paradox is the vast amount of time between existence of any 2 civilizations. Whi

I made this comment earlier but to me the most logical explanation to the Fermi paradox is the vast amount of time between existence of any 2 civilizations. While many could in theory exist in the same Galaxy, the cosmic scale makes it unlikely that any two will ever share the same time scale, thus making any possibility of contact unlikely.

pcnix 8y ago
The argument against this is that a civilization that colonises more than two planets(which a K2 civ could do) has astronomically low chances of getting wiped out, so any that get there first should probably still exist. Which means the time gulf isn't really the problem.
cletus 8y ago
So this is several theories wrapped into one. The Dyson Dilemma (meaning Dyson spheres seem inevitable for civilizations with no more tech than we’re expected to have this century) reduces this idea to civilizations tend to destroy themselves. It’s important to remember that we are not arguing if some if not many or even most civilizations destroy themselves. For this to explain the Fermi Paradox you’re arguing that basically all do and there are lots of problems with that argument. Dyson spheres are not subtle. We can say a high degree of certa8nty that no Dyson spheres have emerged within a billion or so light years of us where light has had time to reach us or we would’ve detected them. Say 10,000 civilizations rose up within that sphere. Even if 9,999 of them destroyed themselves we would detect that 1 tha didn’t.
- TangoTrotFox 8y ago
  We have been able to derive an immense amount of information about our universe from observations and probes but we're still incredibly ignorant. We can't even determine whether or not there might be a substantial dark body (several times the size of Earth) orbiting within our own solar system. That hypothesis is being used to try to explain other things that remain otherwise inplexicable even within our own 'little' solar system. Grand claims about being able to detect dyson spheres with a billion light years are just silly. And even when we do detect things reminiscent of what might be a dyson sphere there is a very logical and reasonable desire to not accept this and instead look for natural explanations. For instance KIC 8462852 was never fully explained and its dimming continues to this day. The only thing that stands out against it being an 'obvious' dyson sphere is the lack of ambient infrared, which we can attribute to a variety of factors, not the least of which being the all-encompassing 'technology we don't yet know'. But we don't do this precisely because when you start going down this road you can attribute basically anything to 'aliens' in the same way a religious person might attribute otherwise explainable events to a god. The point of this being that unless a LGM walks up to us and says hi, we're not going to attribute anything, seriously, to their existence.
TangoTrotFox 8y ago
You've gotta keep relativity in mind here. If a species can develop a means of simply traveling at roughly 1g acceleration indefinitely, they will become -in terms of time- practically immortal. A single human can travel literally billions of light years in a single lifetime by continuing to accelerate at 1g for years at a time. Here [1] is a calculator to determine how long it would take to travel a given distance at a given acceleration. A common misunderstanding is the difference between observed mass increases and perceived. Your mass does not increase as you approach the speed of light relative to something else. But your observed mass does. Anyhow, the point here is that once a species reaches this level of technology, if it's possible, they will start to move beyond anything like the borders of time as we understand them. In my opinion, the most simple and probable explanation is technology (we don't know what's out there), but that's closely followed by the terrifying great filter being complete and unadulterated pleasure. As lives become easier and more pleasurable, the inherent drive towards procreation becomes less and less of a factor. If that reaches below a certain point, that's lights out for a species. Create a guaranteed means of subsistence on a planet, perhaps entirely automated, and now create a technology that becomes more inherently enjoyable and rewarding than procreation itself. Congrats you evil villain, you've destroyed your species in a far more effective way than any weapon ever could. Society goes out not with a bang, but also not with a whimper; they go out with a moan of pleasure. [1] - http://convertalot.com/relativistic_star_ship_calculator.html http://convertalot.com/relativistic_star_ship_calculator.htm...
- russdpale 8y ago
  This is basically what I think. Why traverse the universe when you can upload your brains into a matrix type simulation and place your hardware in orbit around a brown dwarf and then live basically forever. No one will ever find you.

pcnix 8y ago

The argument against this is that a civilization that colonises more than two planets(which a K2 civ could do) has astronomically low chances of getting wiped out, so any that get there first should probably still exist. Which means the time gulf isn't really the problem.

cletus 8y ago

So this is several theories wrapped into one. The Dyson Dilemma (meaning Dyson spheres seem inevitable for civilizations with no more tech than we’re expected to have this century) reduces this idea to civilizations tend to destroy themselves. It’s important to remember that we are not arguing if some if not many or even most civilizations destroy themselves. For this to explain the Fermi Paradox you’re arguing that basically all do and there are lots of problems with that argument. Dyson spheres are not subtle. We can say a high degree of certa8nty that no Dyson spheres have emerged within a billion or so light years of us where light has had time to reach us or we would’ve detected them. Say 10,000 civilizations rose up within that sphere. Even if 9,999 of them destroyed themselves we would detect that 1 tha didn’t.

TangoTrotFox 8y ago
We have been able to derive an immense amount of information about our universe from observations and probes but we're still incredibly ignorant. We can't even determine whether or not there might be a substantial dark body (several times the size of Earth) orbiting within our own solar system. That hypothesis is being used to try to explain other things that remain otherwise inplexicable even within our own 'little' solar system. Grand claims about being able to detect dyson spheres with a billion light years are just silly. And even when we do detect things reminiscent of what might be a dyson sphere there is a very logical and reasonable desire to not accept this and instead look for natural explanations. For instance KIC 8462852 was never fully explained and its dimming continues to this day. The only thing that stands out against it being an 'obvious' dyson sphere is the lack of ambient infrared, which we can attribute to a variety of factors, not the least of which being the all-encompassing 'technology we don't yet know'. But we don't do this precisely because when you start going down this road you can attribute basically anything to 'aliens' in the same way a religious person might attribute otherwise explainable events to a god. The point of this being that unless a LGM walks up to us and says hi, we're not going to attribute anything, seriously, to their existence.

TangoTrotFox 8y ago

You've gotta keep relativity in mind here. If a species can develop a means of simply traveling at roughly 1g acceleration indefinitely, they will become -in terms of time- practically immortal. A single human can travel literally billions of light years in a single lifetime by continuing to accelerate at 1g for years at a time. Here [1] is a calculator to determine how long it would take to travel a given distance at a given acceleration. A common misunderstanding is the difference between observed mass increases and perceived. Your mass does not increase as you approach the speed of light relative to something else. But your observed mass does. Anyhow, the point here is that once a species reaches this level of technology, if it's possible, they will start to move beyond anything like the borders of time as we understand them. In my opinion, the most simple and probable explanation is technology (we don't know what's out there), but that's closely followed by the terrifying great filter being complete and unadulterated pleasure. As lives become easier and more pleasurable, the inherent drive towards procreation becomes less and less of a factor. If that reaches below a certain point, that's lights out for a species. Create a guaranteed means of subsistence on a planet, perhaps entirely automated, and now create a technology that becomes more inherently enjoyable and rewarding than procreation itself. Congrats you evil villain, you've destroyed your species in a far more effective way than any weapon ever could. Society goes out not with a bang, but also not with a whimper; they go out with a moan of pleasure. [1] - http://convertalot.com/relativistic_star_ship_calculator.html http://convertalot.com/relativistic_star_ship_calculator.htm...

russdpale 8y ago
This is basically what I think. Why traverse the universe when you can upload your brains into a matrix type simulation and place your hardware in orbit around a brown dwarf and then live basically forever. No one will ever find you.