Citation? I'm serious - I looked but could not find an article with real numbers. The one linked in the OP http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2005/01/27.html

Citation? I'm serious - I looked but could not find an article with real numbers. The one linked in the OP http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2005/01/27.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2005/01/27.html is using made up numbers. Joel actually has a pretty good theory - the same 199 incompetents plus one good programmer apply to all job openings. The good programmer gets hired and the other 199 flock to the next job opening. Occam's razor selects that explanation.